Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 311. (Read 26497618 times)

Explanation
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It seems pretty strange to me too.. that a relative newbie to bitcoin would be setting sales numbers.... It comes off as not really knowing or understanding bitcoin.

And, maybe it seems like it should be more obvious to have a long term bitcoin plan now, as compared to when I came to bitcoin in late 2013... and I had thought for myself a minimum of 1 year (for tax purposes), but really I wanted to consider 2 years or more as my real target timeline.

Yet, so frequently now, I am suggesting that anyone getting into bitcoin should be considering 4 years or more and then if they need to rethink matters after a whole cycle, then so be it, at least they would have a whole cycle into bitcoin at that point.

So in some sense, it seems that bitcoin's investment thesis is so much stronger these days so that when i compare to myself in late 2013 and considering a 1-2 year investment timeline or longer, and so now we should be able to more comfortably create a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline... and that is not really with any kind of individualization, since surely we should be able to recognize and appreciate that individuals are going to have their own particulars, yet at the same time, just generally speaking, so many folks likely could have an investment timeline that is 4-10 years or longer in which bitcoin could be included in that.

People can do what they want, and surely, each of us have different experience levels, including how much time we might be able to spend attempting to learn about bitcoin, and surely, I never suggest that there is any compelling need to learn about bitcoin prior to investing, since reasonably low amounts of DCA can be started right away and the amounts of weekly-ish DCA can be increased to go along with the learning and a likely conviction that should evolve from increasing bitcoin-related knowledge, which also should have a pretty large likelihood of causing someone to create longer BTC investment timelines that end up with sustainable withdrawal theories and approaches rather than thinking in terms of short-term dollar values.

Many of us likey should not feel so great merely because we spent $50k on bitcoin and we were able to buy a $300k Lamborghini from that investment money... but then end up without any bitcoin.

I know a lot of forum members over the years who started out just looking at number go up and having fairly short-term theories that involved pretty much selling all of their bitcoin at certain price points, and many of those forum members have come around to more sustainable ideas of planning to mostly hold their BTC rather than cashing out for dollars... and it is not like they are even giving anything up in coming around to that kind of a mindset - except for maybe a bit of delayed gratification, since they still are able to cash out chunks of BTC at various points along the way... and so for example, if a guy ended up accumulating 40 BTC-ish between 2014 and 2017 and then maybe he ended up selling 10 BTC in 2021 and maybe buying half of them back and also enjoying the proceeds, and then he is still plugging along, whether he is cashing out every year or every couple of year, and maybe at some point, he might decide to sell between 0.2 and 0.4 bitcoin every quarter and still be doing quite well with that level of sales.. while still largley retaining the value of his stash.

I have not set a time frame for the sale, I have set a target price of $150k.

Explanation
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First of all your chart only goes to March.

Second, if I look at my calendar, I see that 2024 is not over.

Third, we will see both pumps and dumps in 2025, just like we do every single year (even if your chart does not show that), whether the BTC price is going up or going down, both BTC price directions tend to happen in the midst of whichever direction the BTC price is going overall in the year..  

I usually don't suggest folks zoom in, but in this case, based on your question and your presentation of an overly simplified chart, there might be some zoom-in value.
 

Are you planning to sell in 2025?

Price history 2010 to 2024



What will we see next year (2025)? Pump or dump?

Explanation
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Well, you've been registered on the forum for 11-ish months.

Most likely you have to spend 4-10 years or more in bitcoin to really feel the benefits of getting into or being in bitcoin rather than considering if you might get a quick 2x in terms of fiat from whatever bitcoin you have happened to have accumulated to date..

Of course, if you front load your investment, then you might well consider that you have more options of getting in and getting out of the cornz (though that seems like a inferior of thinking about the cornz) or maybe you just put quite a bit of value into bitcoin from the start (so you lump sum front-loaded into BTC).. or even if you DCA over a period of time, that can be another way of getting a considerable position in BTC (whether you are aggressive or not or you might wait for appreciation that may or may not end up coming), then maybe at some point down the road you might see appreciation in your BTC holdings, and you might consider the employment of some kinds of sustainable withdrawal techniques whether they might be price based and/or time based. 

Nothing wrong with sustainable withdrawal, though I do find something wrong with your considering that 2x profits or whatever you are talking about to be anything meaningfully motivating in regards to why a guy might want to be in bitcoin in the first place.

You do what you want, yet we have a lot of examples, historically in bitcoin, of guys being too smart for their own good when it came to their bitcoin management, and they ended up selling way too many coins too soon.  Is that your plan?  Oh and by the way sometimes they don't even plan it, because they think they are being smarter than everyone else and they end up psychologically trapping themselves into being a low coiner or a low coiner when thy could have been a bitcoiner with options.


Gox coins caused the BTC price to go from $70k-ish to $49.6k-ish?     

You seem a wee bit selective in your attempt to spin what happened and what is happening in regards to the cornz and/or its price dynamics.

But hey whatever, you do what you like.  Hopefully not too many folks are putting too much weight into your assessments, to the extent such assessments matter anyhow.


50% higher.. .. $85k-$90k-ish?  Wow.  you are so insightful regarding where "we would have been."


Who is pretending?  And how much does any of these up and downs really matter?  Are you in or not?   

Even though in this forum, and likely in this thread we have a decent representation of guys who already have a decent quantity of coin, yet most of the world's population is far from being in, even though we have continued onboarding through the BTC spot ETFs in recent times.. including that many of the ETFs are ongoingly expanding the number of  RIA (registered investment advisors) who are ONLY recently getting access to such ways of getting into bitcoin (whether they choose to onboard clients through such avenues or not).   

Yes, there are many combinations of factors affecting BTC prices in various ways, yet all in all, largely the BTC prices have been consolidating between about $55k-ish and $70k-ish since about late February.. sure we had a few bounces outside of that arena, but we still have been bouncing around in a pretty BIG range.. .. and yes.. we have gotten to where we are at due to whatever MTGOX did with their distributed coins?

I am sure that there are several of us who feel quite comforted to have you guide us through where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going. 


He supposedly got a tin can out of them.  that's his choice.

At one point he said that he had not gotten enough corn over the years, and then at another point he says that he is selling a chunk of his coins to buy a tin can, which coincidentally would be right around the same price that Germany sold their coins, which likely is not going to look back favorably on them or persons similarly situated.


You have been around long enough to recognize (if you were to want to) that BTC price movements can have short term correlations with liquidity and/or various macro-economic dynamics, including that BTC is traded 24/7, while the stock market has a lot more limitations in its trading..

People also loosely employ terms of correlation, including your own attempt to suggest that others are ascribing BTC/stock market correlation, when no such thing is happening, except for recognizing some explanations for some short-term BTC price movements, and even sometimes there are macromarket dynamics that are more convincing than others, even though surely NOT just one thing affects the BTC price, even though sometimes, there is one thing that is contributing to changes in short-term sentiment, which might be part of the explanation for the fairly deep dive over the weekend (more than a week and a half ago - when many markets weren't open) and then a decent bounce back over the past week and a half... so far.. and yeah, the move is not yet complete, so there could be some more things that contribute to BTC prices staying in our current (around $60k) range, or we could bounce in either direction (would that be Gox coins or some other possible happenings?),. 

I doubt you have any kind of crystal ball in terms of your explanation of any of the matters, and you are not even very convincing in your attempts at wannabe koreck dogma.. .. involving where we are at, how we got here, and/or where we might be going... but yeah, it does not stop you from spouting out in your smarter than everyone else ways... If we agree that you were correct (when you were not), will that make you feel moar better?  or perhaps "we" (not royal this time) could kiss your feet, will that make you feel moar better?


One problem is that it would likely be very inconvenient to actually get put in jail.. and .. many of us know the process is the punishment.. so there  might be a lot of court battles, and if the various behaviors are continuing, such as driving without a license, then jail would continue to happen.. It would not be easy to be worn out with that.. you almost have to exist on a farm, if you can afford it.. but who is going to run and do your errands?

or living off nature in the woods... but who owns the land?  not easy to even harvest your meat, unless the land is yours.. and even then, hopefully no one reports you.


I thought you said that you were buying your tin can this week or paying for it or some other similar spoutings? 

I could not be mixing uie-pooie up with someone else or could I?

Explanation
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Explanation
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Wish you luck.
I planned to shoot some bright meteors at the peak of the Perseides showers the day before yesterday, but clouds were pushed between my camera and the sky, by distant, big thunderstorms. So i tried last night, when the sky was clear, but the results turned out not-so-great when it comes to meteor trails. Only short ones, judged by scrolling through a few hundred images. At least there are plenty of planes and satellites crossing the pics... Given that i did not achieve what i was aiming for, i should have enough good images to stack, for a clean, detailed pic of a part of the Milky Way. Stay tuned.

Explanation
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Another chance to see the auroras and another cloudy evening.  Maybe you rich men north of Richmond will have better luck.  Look up.



No hot babes were harmed in the making of this video.

Nice UPpity vibes from the 15-min chart...

Let's see...

Explanation
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Explanation
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no to buddy.

Explanation
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