Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31583. (Read 26731687 times)
December 03, 2013, 03:23:33 AM
Well, if rpietila turned bull - I think we should hear a "choo-choo" train roaring for the following 2-3 days ...
December 03, 2013, 03:22:59 AM
We could not take it down any more (-30% was not enough). I think that the odds for an immediate crash have greatly diminished.
Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).
Turned bull. Ugh.
Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).
Turned bull. Ugh.
Welcome back.
And, like clockwork, the 1100 resistance is now 1100 support...
December 03, 2013, 03:09:54 AM
Now THIS is some interesting analysis. So much more satisfying that people drawing red and blue trend lines on a chart. Can you explain exactly what is plotted on that graph you posted back there? I'm guessing Z is price and one of the axes is time? What is the other? Why does it look like there are two different data sets being graphed (smooth vs noisy)?
Enjoy
http://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2007/04/23/0702871104.DC1
December 03, 2013, 03:08:14 AM
We could not take it down any more (-30% was not enough). I think that the odds for an immediate crash have greatly diminished.
Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).
Turned bull. Ugh.
Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).
Turned bull. Ugh.
So does this mean you have strengthened your bitcoin position?
This is great news actually, and extremely bullish. When you who try to manipulate are no longer able to crash the market, we have come a long way indeed. I am guessing that the attempt has weakened your(plural) strength to an extent?
December 03, 2013, 03:05:53 AM
i have to agree, ive noticed this ones as well, really nice observations there
Thanks! Sometimes it "pays" to be a physicist. Nicely done. Is that Mathematica?
Most possibly yes. It refers to Free-Surface Synthetic Schlieren (FS-SS) an optical method developed for the measurement of the instantaneous topography of the interface between two transparent fluids (search in google for: Bubbles and Spikes in the Rayleigh-Taylor Instability). A great article can be found here:http://www.fast.u-psud.fr/~moisy/sgbos/tutorial.php
Oh one last thing:
(looks familiar doesn't it?...)
You'll be amazed how many things econo-metrics and fluid mechanics have in common.
Now THIS is some interesting analysis. So much more satisfying that people drawing red and blue trend lines on a chart. Can you explain exactly what is plotted on that graph you posted back there? I'm guessing Z is price and one of the axes is time? What is the other? Why does it look like there are two different data sets being graphed (smooth vs noisy)?
December 03, 2013, 03:03:08 AM
December 03, 2013, 03:01:18 AM
i have to agree, ive noticed this ones as well, really nice observations there
Thanks! Sometimes it "pays" to be a physicist. Nicely done. Is that Mathematica?
Most possibly yes. It refers to Free-Surface Synthetic Schlieren (FS-SS) an optical method developed for the measurement of the instantaneous topography of the interface between two transparent fluids (search in google for: Bubbles and Spikes in the Rayleigh-Taylor Instability). A great article can be found here:http://www.fast.u-psud.fr/~moisy/sgbos/tutorial.php
Oh one last thing:
(looks familiar doesn't it?...)
You'll be amazed how many things econo-metrics and fluid mechanics have in common.
December 03, 2013, 02:57:49 AM
December 03, 2013, 02:56:09 AM
We could not take it down any more (-30% was not enough). I think that the odds for an immediate crash have greatly diminished.
Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).
Turned bull. Ugh.
Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).
Turned bull. Ugh.
Have you been trying to induce a crash?
December 03, 2013, 02:55:41 AM
i have to agree, ive noticed this ones as well, really nice observations there
Thanks! Sometimes it "pays" to be a physicist. Nicely done. Is that Mathematica?
I don't think it models gox
December 03, 2013, 02:50:30 AM
We could not take it down any more (-30% was not enough). I think that the odds for an immediate crash have greatly diminished.
Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).
Turned bull. Ugh.
Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).
Turned bull. Ugh.
December 03, 2013, 02:47:31 AM
i have to agree, ive noticed this ones as well, really nice observations there
Thanks! Sometimes it "pays" to be a physicist. Nicely done. Is that Mathematica?
December 03, 2013, 02:33:41 AM
i have to agree, ive noticed this ones as well, really nice observations there
Thanks! Sometimes it "pays" to be a physicist. December 03, 2013, 02:23:19 AM
You guys are great-- you make really good points. I'm glad to be here, and I'm always learning something new. Maybe this is just another consolidating pennant, with a new floor and solid bids lined up? 
Yep; it could be. But if you look here http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd and notice the 15m chart you may be able to observe the most common thing I've noticed the Bitcoin does; it's called "wave turbulence pattern" or "surfwake".
The thing is; it usually recovers *very* fast after such a turbulence due to the huge buying demand. Then again a big player decides to sell and goes on and on, causing -somewhat- harmonic oscillations. Again; this is only what I have observed. I don't claim it's 100% true..
i have to agree, ive noticed this ones as well, really nice observations there
December 03, 2013, 02:11:18 AM
You guys are great-- you make really good points. I'm glad to be here, and I'm always learning something new. Maybe this is just another consolidating pennant, with a new floor and solid bids lined up?
Yep; it could be. But if you look here http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd and notice the 15m chart you may be able to observe the most common thing I've noticed the Bitcoin does; it's called "wave turbulence pattern" or "surfwake".The thing is; it usually recovers *very* fast after such a turbulence due to the huge buying demand. Then again a big player decides to sell and goes on and on, causing -somewhat- harmonic oscillations. Again; this is only what I have observed. I don't claim it's 100% true..
December 03, 2013, 02:03:05 AM
December 03, 2013, 01:56:35 AM
You guys are great-- you make really good points. I'm glad to be here, and I'm always learning something new. Maybe this is just another consolidating pennant, with a new floor and solid bids lined up?
December 03, 2013, 01:51:54 AM
If the rally continues on, then the level where it bounced off the ema (840) is the new FLOOR when it actually crashes.
This is important. I would agree.
December 03, 2013, 01:45:46 AM
If the rally continues on, then the level where it bounced off the ema (840) is the new FLOOR when it actually crashes.
This is important. I would agree.
December 03, 2013, 01:45:25 AM
Hmmm, I'm thinking it's not so much 1117.80 as the fact that we are now trading under the slower moving average, and have not yet been able to break back through. So, it may just be a moving target, careful. I'd love for us to break through it, but, who knows, and, it's been one helluva a spike.
My brother asked me over the holiday (Thanksgiving) if Bitcoin goes up faster or down faster, and I replied it comes down faster (thinking about the crashes). Checked it, I was wrong. It comes down slower than it goes up, over the long haul. So this run-up is going to take several months to unwind. There's time to close out your positions, and then, take a trip somewhere nice. I'll be going to Bali for the winter
I'm honestly not convinced that the bull market is through. This time around has behaved differently than the last two bubbles and it may yet surprise us further.
I have not divested at all.
The order book has been bullish through this entire consolidation. The asks never jumped, and while the bids were cleared by market sells, they have continuously been added to. Even now, the bid sum is continuing to rise at a very steep rate. At this point, while many who sold were taking profits, I think many who sold are also going to be wanting back in. We saw a lot of coins pass to a new generation of bitcoiner, that the price is still only 10%(ish) off of the ATH, how is that not bullish?
Also, bitcoin only goes through long slow declines after a massive crash, which we have not seen, and may not. If we do enter a bear market, it will be shorter than the one this summer. As bitcoin matures, the crashes will be less epic, and the recoveries shorter, baring some serious negative news anyway . . .
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