Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31600. (Read 26731443 times)
December 01, 2013, 04:03:06 AM
December 01, 2013, 04:02:29 AM
Not sure how valid it is, but if it's true it sounds orchestrated.
It's true that there were some very large donors. But my guess is it went like this: Some whales quickly realized that they could buy huge publicity for bitcoin by sending large amounts to this kid. I do not believe the kid himself was involved in any orchestration.
December 01, 2013, 04:00:23 AM
It is possible that we are entering in the same kind of phase now, but if that happens, everybody is just so rich anyway that I rather hedge my bets and do comfortably in both scenarios.
This is entirely reasonable. I've spent many years trying to beat the traditional markets and diversification is not lost on me.
Besides, if you can guarantee financial security without significantly diluting your position, that is always the correct decision.
Now there should be selling, because the price is objectively high, but many delay the selling until bubble has popped, steepening the decline.
I disagree with this. By no means is the price "objectively high", especially if we're using early 2013 data. The run-up started at ~$15 in January, and the bubble terminated around ~$130 in March. This most recent movement started around ~$140 and we are now around ~$1160.
On a comparative basis that makes $1160 seem fair, if not a little on the low side.
It's true that the timescale is compressed as compared to January-March, but the newscycle is compressed also.
My wild speculation is that we're going to camp out somewhere near this price into early 2014, and then we'll have another wild ride around February.
+1
My guess is we're gonna have a new ATH later today (before the weekend is over). Let's see.
December 01, 2013, 04:00:06 AM
Not sure how valid it is, but if it's true it sounds orchestrated.
It's true that there were some very large donors. But my guess is it went like this: Some whales quickly realized that they could buy huge publicity for bitcoin by sending large amounts to this kid. I do not believe the kid himself was involved in any orchestration.
December 01, 2013, 03:58:54 AM
Did you guys hear about the kid who showed the bitcoin sign on ESPN? He just received 26 000 $ worth of bitcoins! This is perfect material for a viral news story!
Look at this -- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6826653Quote
It's worth noting that a very large percentage of these donations are coming from a very small number of parties. Notably over $10,000 each from https://blockchain.info/address/1F8UFEeVJGXUzR9TWfBMkyqbipjM...
and
https://blockchain.info/address/1JSDMMDybTZ9nEZgMUtTXQSW4hGR...
and
https://blockchain.info/address/1JSDMMDybTZ9nEZgMUtTXQSW4hGR...
Not sure how valid it is, but if it's true it sounds orchestrated.
Honestly, I think it was probably an early adopter (or several) that realized how big a news story it'd be.
They should've split up the donations into believable chunks.
December 01, 2013, 03:58:10 AM
Is there any graph to track price movements on the chinese exchanges?
http://btckan.com/price
I want these numbers as graphs in one graph...
http://btckan.com/price
I want these numbers as graphs in one graph...
December 01, 2013, 03:56:11 AM
Did you guys hear about the kid who showed the bitcoin sign on ESPN? He just received 26 000 $ worth of bitcoins! This is perfect material for a viral news story!
Look at this -- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6826653Quote
It's worth noting that a very large percentage of these donations are coming from a very small number of parties. Notably over $10,000 each from https://blockchain.info/address/1F8UFEeVJGXUzR9TWfBMkyqbipjM...
and
https://blockchain.info/address/1JSDMMDybTZ9nEZgMUtTXQSW4hGR...
and
https://blockchain.info/address/1JSDMMDybTZ9nEZgMUtTXQSW4hGR...
Not sure how valid it is, but if it's true it sounds orchestrated.
December 01, 2013, 03:54:13 AM
Did you guys hear about the kid who showed the bitcoin sign on ESPN? He just received 26 000 $ worth of bitcoins! This is perfect material for a viral news story!
December 01, 2013, 03:45:18 AM
It is possible that we are entering in the same kind of phase now, but if that happens, everybody is just so rich anyway that I rather hedge my bets and do comfortably in both scenarios.
This is entirely reasonable. I've spent many years trying to beat the traditional markets and diversification is not lost on me.
Besides, if you can guarantee financial security without significantly diluting your position, that is always the correct decision.
Now there should be selling, because the price is objectively high, but many delay the selling until bubble has popped, steepening the decline.
I disagree with this. By no means is the price "objectively high", especially if we're using early 2013 data. The run-up started at ~$15 in January, and the bubble terminated around ~$130 in March. This most recent movement started around ~$140 and we are now around ~$1160.
On a comparative basis that makes $1160 seem fair, if not a little on the low side.
It's true that the timescale is compressed as compared to January-March, but the newscycle is compressed also.
My wild speculation is that we're going to camp out somewhere near this price into early 2014, and then we'll have another wild ride around February.
December 01, 2013, 03:42:50 AM
Can BTCChina reclaim 7000? I want to sleep but I need to know 
December 01, 2013, 03:35:26 AM
People who have been holding for months and are used to $140/BTC as a "fair price" are probably going to think $1100 a coin is ludicrous when we first arrive at that price. This may induce selling.
If strong support materializes and we stay above $1000, long-term impressions change and long-term holders may re-evaluate their concept of a fair price.
I believe sell pressure is strongest during the hike up. Even if cashflow in begins to taper I expect we can stay in this price range.
Of course, cash in naturally drops during the weekend and we see minor selloffs.
If strong support materializes and we stay above $1000, long-term impressions change and long-term holders may re-evaluate their concept of a fair price.
I believe sell pressure is strongest during the hike up. Even if cashflow in begins to taper I expect we can stay in this price range.
Of course, cash in naturally drops during the weekend and we see minor selloffs.
Thank you.
In my understanding, people sell in the early stages of the rally (supported by the bitstamp data). Then the ascent of the rally goes steeper, as people who had selling pressure have already sold. February was a great selling month
Now there should be selling, because the price is objectively high, but many delay the selling until bubble has popped, steepening the decline.My analysis draws quite much from the early 2013. If instead 2010-2011 would be used, the ascents are more violent, crashes faster, and the plateaus between ascents happen near the ATH. That was characterized by a relentless influx of new money. It is possible that we are entering in the same kind of phase now, but if that happens, everybody is just so rich anyway that I rather hedge my bets and do comfortably in both scenarios.
December 01, 2013, 03:30:46 AM
at the rate we are going, we need new events every 4 or 5 days to prop BTC up. what was the last major news event anyways? the senate hearing weeks ago?
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1roulj/china_telecom_accepts_bitcoin/
There's also been the news articles about the guy that lost 7500 BTC in a landfill, and shortly there will probably be some news articles about the kid on ESPN that made 22 BTC by holding a QR code up to the camera.
December 01, 2013, 03:29:08 AM
at the rate we are going, we need new events every 4 or 5 days to prop BTC up. what was the last major news event anyways? the senate hearing weeks ago?
December 01, 2013, 03:24:55 AM
Why are we assuming that this was a whale and not simply sell pressure that was unsupported by buying action since the fiat system is closed down for the weekend?
Can't you just believe that people are coming in droves? One such came in last month. Now everybody is waiting, counting their coins. If no drove comes, everybody sells, newcomers and old ones alike.
I know the magnitude of droves grows on average 1140% per year. It's a lot, but you cannot draw the conclusion that each month the USD flow is bigger than last month. Because it isn't.
It's not so simple. Selling pressure is dynamic also.
People who have been holding for months and are used to $140/BTC as a "fair price" are probably going to think $1100 a coin is ludicrous when we first arrive at that price. This may induce selling.
If strong support materializes and we stay above $1000, long-term impressions change and long-term holders may re-evaluate their concept of a fair price.
I believe sell pressure is strongest during the hike up. Even if cashflow in begins to taper I expect we can stay in this price range.
Of course, cash in naturally drops during the weekend and we see minor selloffs.
i actually sold my coins because i thought 10$ was the normal price for them. i come from 2011 lel
If you actually thought your coins were worth $10 you would have sold them in April.
I mined like 5 and then never checked bitcoin for 2 years till like 5 days ago no joke. lol it was just a little hobby
December 01, 2013, 03:20:47 AM
Why are we assuming that this was a whale and not simply sell pressure that was unsupported by buying action since the fiat system is closed down for the weekend?
Can't you just believe that people are coming in droves? One such came in last month. Now everybody is waiting, counting their coins. If no drove comes, everybody sells, newcomers and old ones alike.
I know the magnitude of droves grows on average 1140% per year. It's a lot, but you cannot draw the conclusion that each month the USD flow is bigger than last month. Because it isn't.
It's not so simple. Selling pressure is dynamic also.
People who have been holding for months and are used to $140/BTC as a "fair price" are probably going to think $1100 a coin is ludicrous when we first arrive at that price. This may induce selling.
If strong support materializes and we stay above $1000, long-term impressions change and long-term holders may re-evaluate their concept of a fair price.
I believe sell pressure is strongest during the hike up. Even if cashflow in begins to taper I expect we can stay in this price range.
Of course, cash in naturally drops during the weekend and we see minor selloffs.
i actually sold my coins because i thought 10$ was the normal price for them. i come from 2011 lel
If you actually thought your coins were worth $10 you would have sold them in April.
December 01, 2013, 03:19:07 AM
Why are we assuming that this was a whale and not simply sell pressure that was unsupported by buying action since the fiat system is closed down for the weekend?
Can't you just believe that people are coming in droves? One such came in last month. Now everybody is waiting, counting their coins. If no drove comes, everybody sells, newcomers and old ones alike.
I know the magnitude of droves grows on average 1140% per year. It's a lot, but you cannot draw the conclusion that each month the USD flow is bigger than last month. Because it isn't.
It's not so simple. Selling pressure is dynamic also.
People who have been holding for months and are used to $140/BTC as a "fair price" are probably going to think $1100 a coin is ludicrous when we first arrive at that price. This may induce selling.
If strong support materializes and we stay above $1000, long-term impressions change and long-term holders may re-evaluate their concept of a fair price.
I believe sell pressure is strongest during the hike up. Even if cashflow in begins to taper I expect we can stay in this price range.
Of course, cash in naturally drops during the weekend and we see minor selloffs.
i actually sold my coins because i thought 10$ was the normal price for them. i come from 2011 lel
December 01, 2013, 03:15:31 AM
24h sanity check:
Bitstamp -7.79%
Mtgox -5.73%
BTCChina -10.11%
Bitstamp -7.79%
Mtgox -5.73%
BTCChina -10.11%
30 minutes later, another 24h sanity check:
Bitstamp -5.07%
Mtgox -4.53%
BTCChina -7.11%
December 01, 2013, 03:10:57 AM
China's trend is reversing, starting to look bullish.
December 01, 2013, 03:09:42 AM
Why are we assuming that this was a whale and not simply sell pressure that was unsupported by buying action since the fiat system is closed down for the weekend?
Can't you just believe that people are coming in droves? One such came in last month. Now everybody is waiting, counting their coins. If no drove comes, everybody sells, newcomers and old ones alike.
I know the magnitude of droves grows on average 1140% per year. It's a lot, but you cannot draw the conclusion that each month the USD flow is bigger than last month. Because it isn't.
It's not so simple. Selling pressure is dynamic also.
People who have been holding for months and are used to $140/BTC as a "fair price" are probably going to think $1100 a coin is ludicrous when we first arrive at that price. This may induce selling.
If strong support materializes and we stay above $1000, long-term impressions change and long-term holders may re-evaluate their concept of a fair price.
I believe sell pressure is strongest during the hike up. Even if cashflow in begins to taper I expect we can stay in this price range.
Of course, cash in naturally drops during the weekend and we see minor selloffs.
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