Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31679. (Read 26708905 times)
November 23, 2013, 11:42:57 PM
If you want us to stop yawning, drop the price lower.
November 23, 2013, 11:39:37 PM
Memo to would-be weekend manipulators: your shenanigans are becoming sad and pathetic.
Most coins are now held by strong hands not stupid enough to believe that whales would permanently liquidate large coinage at the time of the week when there is the least liquidity. We all know you are trying to trigger fake panics and bearish technical formations. And we know you intend to buy those coins back just as quickly as you sold them.
If you want us to stop yawning, do a dump on a weekday, when people are awake, during real banking hours.
Most coins are now held by strong hands not stupid enough to believe that whales would permanently liquidate large coinage at the time of the week when there is the least liquidity. We all know you are trying to trigger fake panics and bearish technical formations. And we know you intend to buy those coins back just as quickly as you sold them.
If you want us to stop yawning, do a dump on a weekday, when people are awake, during real banking hours.
November 23, 2013, 11:38:59 PM
This is a great illustration of how well an exponential trend line can predict the past.
That's not an exponential trendline.What is it? Equation would help.
November 23, 2013, 11:37:22 PM
This is a great illustration of how well an exponential trend line can predict the past.
That's not an exponential trendline. November 23, 2013, 11:36:29 PM
The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.
I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.
Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.
Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.
So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.
I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.
Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.
Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.
So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.
This is a great illustration of how well an exponential trend line can predict the past.
Could you get me a plot without data from the last month, with a trend superimposed (just like this one), so we can compare?
November 23, 2013, 11:32:43 PM
Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.
I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.
*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)
The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.
I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.
Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.
Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.
So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.
When we're done, we'll just realize that it was a steeper growth curve than we thought at the time and that we were at a different spot in the curve than we thought.
But yeah, if the Square/Starbucks rumor is true, then next week will be VERY interesting.
November 23, 2013, 11:31:38 PM
The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.
I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.
Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.
Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.
So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.
I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.
Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.
Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.
So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.
November 23, 2013, 11:29:50 PM
I think we are headed lower.
November 23, 2013, 11:28:56 PM
The night is still young.
November 23, 2013, 11:24:16 PM
Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.
I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.
*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)
The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.
I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.
Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.
Pretty much this.
No TA involved..
November 23, 2013, 11:22:32 PM
Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.
I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.
*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)
The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.
I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.
Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.
I'd say the main obstacle is the network itself and its infrastructure...can it take the strain...Gox and Stamps issues over the last few weeks are not encouraging.
November 23, 2013, 11:16:48 PM
Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.
I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.
*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)
The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.
I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.
Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.
Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.
So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.
November 23, 2013, 11:15:56 PM
For those who buy and hold, anything bought these days is just investment for the future.
Short-term traders can have lotsa fun riding these waves through the winter.
New-Years brings new cheers for us, as the value climbs.
Short-term traders can have lotsa fun riding these waves through the winter.
New-Years brings new cheers for us, as the value climbs.
November 23, 2013, 11:14:54 PM
Please buckle-up, we are in for extreme turbulence for a while as we approach 1000 feet, I mean us dollars per bitcoin.
and....
and....
November 23, 2013, 11:14:16 PM
Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.
I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.
*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)
Me too.Then again if they had asked me at $5 I would have said the same thing and been totally wrong.
November 23, 2013, 11:13:52 PM
Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.
I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.
*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)
I'm having the same dilemma a lot.
I've thought about it. In the end, the answer is: BUY.
It may not be this week, month, or year, but we'll surely be playing above 1k in 2015.
November 23, 2013, 11:11:23 PM
quick i need an answer, before it goes over 800 and i can't afford any anymore
buy buy buy 
Seriously, a few days ago, gox crashed from 900 to 460 and now we're back at around 800, which shows much resistance. No one knows, but I figure this will hold until we at least reach ~1000
November 23, 2013, 11:10:23 PM
Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.
I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.
*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)
November 23, 2013, 11:09:43 PM
November 23, 2013, 11:09:08 PM
quick i need an answer, before it goes over 800 and i can't afford any anymore
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