Bitcoin is appreciating at 1140% per year. The
trendline price for November is $328 and December $404. After several months of significantly behind the trend, we did a spectacular overshoot to
$1100/$900/$750 across main exchanges. Immediately followed an hourly-term bear market, characterized by (mainly) lower highs and lower lows.
We are now 40 hours after the pop.Currently the price is at
double the trendtarget. You can stretch a rubber band a lot, but when you release, it starts to contract with force. Force must be applied to reverse the course and stretch it back to 3, 4 or more times the trend. The natural tendency of the rubber band is to contract to the trendline and even 25%-40% below it.
Since this bubble developed so rapidly, the trend had no time to catch up or adjust. Therefore, despite my earlier predictions that the next crash bottom will be $500ish (double the pre-bubble ATH), I will have to adjust the downside target to about $300. This is 33% below December trendline, and also higher than the previous ATH, which will act as support. There are currently not many supports between that and the new high. These will be formed as we grind down.
In my observation, the forum is overextended and cannot buy the price up. "Others" will act according to time-tested statistical principles (refer to 4/2013 bubble pop for details). There will be a bear market lasting for weeks. Many in this forum will not acknowledge it even after it is over
It will not be a huge event, and absolutely nothing to care about if you are a long-term holder. But traders do well to understand that sometimes even fiat has its day.
I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses yesterday's high values ($1000/$750/$640) set about 24 hours ago, today or during the remainder of the year, (except Bitstamp at max).
I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses the current values ($700/$630/$600) during the rest of the week, (except for the following hours).
I give 75% probability to the scenario.
Otherwise the common wisdom does not hold, and 2010 is back.The difference I think you are not accounting for this time is the amount of fiat coming into the exchanges. You are basically predicting a similar result as April aftermath. I think this bear market lasts a couple of weeks at the most. I expect a leveling off or upward trend to resume before the end of the year. Barring game changing bad news, I expect us to enter into a new rapid growth phase within 90 days
