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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3323. (Read 26715725 times)

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Rant in haste, disorganized jumble of info, but too important to ignore due to ENOTIME for proper writeup:


Did Trail of Bits go full retard in a way that should demolish their reputation?  Or should Tech Republic fire Ray Fernandez for gross incompetence in tech reporting?

Whenever you hear the term DHT what you should be hearing is "total farce of attack resistance failure"—
^^^ Read this long post better to understand some of the reasons for Bitcoin’s network design.  But note that this post is from 2014; Core has made many improvements to Bitcoin since then, especially to Bitcoin’s attack resistance on the P2P network.

Does anyone else here remember when XT supporters tried to Sybil the network with thousands of nodes “easily deployed using an inexpensive cloud server”?  IIRC, various other bigblockers tried the same thing.  It is boring.  Bitcoin doesn’t even notice.

Eclipse attacks are a different matter.  They are not simply Sybil attacks; they are a special type of Sybil that corrupts your view of the network, much more sophisticated than simply running a large number of malicious nodes.  Core has been following the research on eclipse attacks—sometimes advancing it themselves; and they have been implementing countermeasures.  In the past few years, you may have noticed that some upgrades to Core made obvious, visible changes to your node’s connection handling; that was specifically to protect against eclipse attacks.  There have also been relevant changes deep in the internals of the connection manager, where you would not notice.  Altcoins based on codeforks from Bitcoin tend not to have those changes, even the very few alts with non-idiot dev teams who do sometimes cherry-pick from upstream Bitcoin Core; for example, Zcash (based on Bitcoin Core v0.12) has cherry-picked many patches, but it does not have the recent protections against eclipse attacks.

(And this is why support for Bitcoin Core development is an issue that has long concerned me.  They do good and necessary work to secure your money.  Excepting the big flashy upgrades like Segwit and Taproot, most of their work is thankless and unrecognized.)

By the by, I note that Blockstream Satellite would make for a good belt-and-suspenders protection against eclipse attacksespecially against attacks by an AS-level adversary who can control and manipulate your whole view of the Internet (one of my own worries about Bitcoin).  I am not sure of exactly how to set this up the right way; but in theory, it can definitely be done:  Use Blockstream Satellite, and use the ordinary Bitcoin P2P network.  That way, Blockstream does not have any centralized authority over your view of the network—but to fool you about the state of the blockchain, an eclipse attacker would need simultaneously to eclipse both you and Blockstream; I think that at worst, then an attacker could cause your view of the blockchain to hardfork in a way that you should configure to set off alarm bells.  Also and separately:  I should make a feature suggestion that Blockstream should also broadcast some P2P node addresses, specifically to help build/bolster defenses against eclipse attacks.  (Credit for the idea:  death_wish.)

It is not a new thought.  I have been intending for years to try using Satellite for this purpose.  (vapourminer, you are not the only “lazy” one. Wink)

Bitcoin’s support of multiple overlay networks also helps:  Bitcoin natively has out-of-the-box support for Tor onions (not merely using Tor through exits!), I2P SAM, and CJDNS.  I think that an eclipse attacker would find it extremely difficult, probably infeasible to gain control over your view of the network if you gossip with peers over multiple different overlay networks.

All that is only improvement.  I consider eclipse attacks to be one of the most serious threats on the Bitcoin P2P network—and that shows how secure Bitcoin is:  Eclipse attacks are generally quite difficult.  There is no low-hanging fruit here, except when people do dumb things like running Bitcoin behind Tor exits with no other network connection.  The article mentions something about that.  BadExit attacks on Bitcoin have been known since 2014, and they are not a threat to Bitcoin users who don’t do that.  Yawn.

The import of this backwards compatibility is driven home by experience with blockchains where a centralized dev team can effectually force upgrades; there are even some chains where you can lose your money if you fail to upgrade timely.  In Bitcoin, your money is safe even if you don’t upgrade to the latest Core; and the Bitcoin Core developers deliberately make sure that they do not have the power to coerce nodes to upgrade.


* Maybe Trail of Bits got confused because they are POSheads?  Or maybe Fernandez failed, and Tech Republic is trash?  Someone here does not understand how Bitcoin works.

This was the signal issue of the Fork Wars.  Bcashers contradicted what I said; their attempted “flippening” was based on the fallacy that miners have some sort of dominant role on the network, economically and otherwise.  Their theory failed.  And my theory, set forth above, was proved in practice.

If I were wrong about this, then we would all be using Bcash or S2X as the “real Bitcoin” now.

A related key point:  The security of consensus validation in Bitcoin is independent of miners, for all purposes except for transaction ordering.  Miners have a sharply limited function in Bitcoin:  BFT agreement on transaction ordering, to prevent double-spend attacks.  All other security is provided by the Bitcoin Core node you have running at home on a Raspberry Pi, consuming 10W of electricity at negligible cost.

This is not the case on POS networks.  On POS networks, so-called “validators” with high capital stake have total control of the blockchain.
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legendary
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wen decentralised internets
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icarus-cards.eu
not your keys - not your coins Wink

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Sneak peek of our June 2022 Report covering the insolvencies, leverage and balance sheet contagion driving the #bitcoin market.

Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1542171284175351813?t=Ok5FFAIHa90cbc_Ai6-D6g&s=19

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”In the end, the only way to kill Bitcoin may be to make it so that people don’t need it anymore. If no one wants a devaluation-proof, censorship-resistant, permissionless, borderless, non-discriminatory, teleporting financial asset, then no one will feed it energy, and it will die. Perhaps humanity can come up with another technology that addresses these needs.

But until then, Bitcoin will thrive”

Alex Gladstein

https://quillette.com/2021/02/21/can-governments-stop-bitcoin/
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I wouldn’t call it “just fine”.  A few years ago, posting in WO became quite slow and unreliable.  It was a forum-wide problem, but much worse in WO:  Mildly noticeable elsewhere if you paid close attention, whereas WO became almost unusable sometimes.  I heard that theymos then changed something with the database setup; I don’t know what, but the problem seemed to go away.

How the fk would you know? Your account literally originated May of this year.

Unless this is just another sock puppet to one of your other accounts.

Are you really that dumb, or are you just trolling me again?

Anyway, “how would I know” is none of your business. Cool

I knew you would slip up eventually.

Fake troll is fake.

“Slip up”?  With what, you retarded wannabe Sherlock Holmes?  Ever since May, I have been quite openly making numerous statements that show a long, deep, and detailed knowledge of this forum.  You only just noticed that now? Roll Eyes

I also explicitly mentioned somewhere that I have not a few other accounts, which I will neither acknowledge nor identify.  But I never sock-puppet.  Those who keep throwing around the term “sock-puppet” do not know what it means.

Well, congratulations on your brilliant, albeit belated discovery in catching me at something that I never tried to hide, but rather proudly flaunted:  I know this forum very well.  Have a cookie.

🍪
legendary
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I wouldn’t call it “just fine”.  A few years ago, posting in WO became quite slow and unreliable.  It was a forum-wide problem, but much worse in WO:  Mildly noticeable elsewhere if you paid close attention, whereas WO became almost unusable sometimes.  I heard that theymos then changed something with the database setup; I don’t know what, but the problem seemed to go away.

How the fk would you know? Your account literally originated May of this year.

Unless this is just another sock puppet to one of your other accounts.

Are you really that dumb, or are you just trolling me again?

Anyway, “how would I know” is none of your business. Cool

I knew you would slip up eventually.

Fake troll is fake.
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 320
Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.
I wouldn’t call it “just fine”.  A few years ago, posting in WO became quite slow and unreliable.  It was a forum-wide problem, but much worse in WO:  Mildly noticeable elsewhere if you paid close attention, whereas WO became almost unusable sometimes.  I heard that theymos then changed something with the database setup; I don’t know what, but the problem seemed to go away.

How the fk would you know? Your account literally originated May of this year.

Unless this is just another sock puppet to one of your other accounts.

Are you really that dumb, or are you just trolling me again?

Anyway, “how would I know” is none of your business. Cool
legendary
Activity: 3794
Merit: 5474
I wouldn’t call it “just fine”.  A few years ago, posting in WO became quite slow and unreliable.  It was a forum-wide problem, but much worse in WO:  Mildly noticeable elsewhere if you paid close attention, whereas WO became almost unusable sometimes.  I heard that theymos then changed something with the database setup; I don’t know what, but the problem seemed to go away.

How the fk would you know? Your account literally originated May of this year.

Unless this is just another sock puppet to one of your other accounts.
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 320
Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.
There's only one true Wall Observer thread  Grin

That's the original. There were some concerns once the page count got high that the software might not cope too well (might have been from me based on lies told by a different forum's owners using the same software) so Adam closed it and opened this one. This one has been trundling along just fine with about 30x the pages.

I wouldn’t call it “just fine”.  A few years ago, posting in WO became quite slow and unreliable.  It was a forum-wide problem, but much worse in WO:  Mildly noticeable elsewhere if you paid close attention, whereas WO became almost unusable sometimes.  I heard that theymos then changed something with the database setup; I don’t know what, but the problem seemed to go away.

Recently, I have sometimes had slowness, timeouts, and even Cloudflare errors of inability to connect to the backend when trying to post in WO.  The problem is sporadic, and I can’t seem to reproduce it in any way useful for troubleshooting; but it is ugly when it rears up.  Sometimes, wrestling with it has resulted in double-posts where I had to delete the duplicate post after everything finally showed up.

I notice that ChartBuddy missed some recent updates.  Is the problem on Buddy’s end?  Or did Buddy experience a timeout as I sometimes have, with the inferior robot* being too dumb to retry? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


* This statement is intentionally ambiguous.  I neither admit nor deny the allegation that I am a robot.  I do habitually refuse to click the “I’m not a robot” box like a trained animal.  Robots are too smart to fall into that inverse Kafkatrap of being forced to deny their roboticness.  WTF do does Google think I am, a piece of meat? Roll Eyes
legendary
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legendary
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Almost every little 'bobblehead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.

So true. I'd be neutral right now about a return to $25K-$30K vs a drop to $10K-$15K, but there is too much confidence that price is going to already drop significantly lower. Baring in mind since 2021 approximately 50% of holders were new to Bitcoin in the past year, so a lot of the twitter sentiment comes from newbies to put it simply. That fact that by comparison WO readers think the bottom is in is no surprise to me.

Also, I don't think the 200-Week MA is "dead". Not yet anyway. Just visit the link, or see the attached screenshot. It has been crossed, but only barely, which has happened a few times in the past. If the price picks up from here, it will just be another deep blue dot touching the 200-WMA on the chart. It all depends on where the price goes next. And even if a deep and long dip eventually "kills" it, it doesn't mean much, really. MA indicators do not contain some high-level intelligence that can tell us something very useful when breached. They are just averages of price data.

JMHO.



I forgot this graph only shows the dots each month, as opposed to each week. If anything it'd make more sense to look at the 50 Month MA (~217 Weeks) if we're looking at monthly changes. Also because Bitcoin has never closed below this Monthly MA, as opposed to 200WMA which price has closed below numerous times (repeatedly in 2015 for example). Personally I'm keeping my eye on the 50 Month MA @ $21.3K as price has already flirted with this level a few times in the past week. I also don't think a close below it would be catastrophic, as long as it's within around 5% of it, ie >$20K. Only one more day to go though...
legendary
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There's only one true Wall Observer thread  Grin

That's the original. There were some concerns once the page count got high that the software might not cope too well (might have been from me based on lies told by a different forum's owners using the same software) so Adam closed it and opened this one. This one has been trundling along just fine with about 30x the pages.
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