Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3341. (Read 26715417 times)

What parts?

"parts is parts"

Yeah, it was indeed a 30secs of humour! Wendy got him!

Wondering the same thing.
Perhaps it's Bubble B from the transformers looking to transform the bear market for a bull ride. See its fanlike wheels,  .

I agree with everything that you are saying Mr.right85 - except your belief that there is a rule about not borrowing to invest.  Historically, lots of folks get rich as fuck by borrowing to invest and also have been able to enjoy life much more because of their being able to front load investment and/or consumption.

Of course, the whole fucking debt system has both gotten out of hand, and has shown a lot of its flaws and inequities in recent times... but we do not necessarily need to get into system-wide issues regarding the many ways that the debt system is flawed in order to also understand that in an individual level there can be a lot of ways to employ debt wisely and also to put yourself in a much better place than you would have been able to do without the employment of debt.

I will point out that you have already implied the answer to the question that you posed in terms of how normies may get fucked by debt by either not having a plan B and/or by overdoing it (using debt to gamble in excessive ways).  I doubt that I really need to go into details on these points in order that any of us might be able to appreciate examples of good use of debt and bad use of debt and even appreciate the difference between reasonable kinds of gambling and/or investing  and unreasonable/excessive kinds of gambling and/or believing that you are investing when you are not.


Don't get me wrong, there may well be some cases that are ambiguous and fall in the middle and they may or may end up working out.. perhaps based on good luck or bad luck.. and sometimes mistakes are made too.  Sometimes a guy might engage in some risky gambling efforts to bet 8x than the BTC price is going to go up, but then accidentally bet 80x, and frequently that bet will cause him to get reckt, but every once in a while, he ended up getting lucky when the mistake paid off because he recognized the mistake after it had already caused unexpectedly larger profits than had been expected.


What's it mean?

hahahaha

Isn't the blockchain information irrevocable, undeniable and irrefutable because, from the way I know it, these attributes and the confirmation that follows broadcasted transactions are the ways in which the chains are ensured of security.

Speaking of selective disclosure, is that really going to be a plus to the blockchain technology?
You know, the only way for transactions not getting counterfeiters is the verifiable nature of the blocks. I'm not very deep into this stuff so, if am getting it wrong at some point, am happy to be corrected.
With these kidnappers, rubbers and others not knowing who is behind an address what matters to a selective disclosure?

Do you know the expression:  "parts is parts"?

 

Actually, I should not leave any curious cats hanging in terms of the actual reference in this one, because it is quite humorous, even though the substantive claims of the commercial are factually wrong and the overall commercial is attempting to sell process/fast foods as if processed food were real food.. but anyhow click on the link to experience 30 seconds of humor without necessarily buying into the commercial aspect of it that ended up being a lie.. but at the same time did have commercial success in terms of causing folks to match the expression "parts is parts" with a certain fast food chain.


Regarding your overall post D_W.. Wow.. lots of good points/"parts"..  

I doubt that any of us can keep up with so many things, and so surely sometimes there can be value in threads like this one, in which we are able to see some information that might be out there and attempt to explore it more thoroughly when we see that there has been work in that direction, yet at the same time, we might not have known where to start or even how the questions might be framed... .. So your post seems to frame the issues in an understandable way... even though there are still some folks who are not going to really understand the importance of such information.. and these things take a while to get into the consciousness of normie peeps in the population.


I am a little bit surprised that you did not put governments into your above list.  Don't get me wrong, I am not anti-government because sometimes governments do have reasons to get involved in compiling information generally and sometimes they also have legitimate reasons to get into specifics and including some personal information matters, and sometimes their getting involved in compiling, composing and even snooping on citizens does have some legitimate public interest purposes.. but at the same time, we have seen that some of the governmental departments have become abusive with their access to some of the various kinds of private information.. and for sure, these are ever evolving lines in terms of how the internet contributes to a lot of free flow of information and disinformation too.. but then sometimes governments are not even always playing fairly with their attempts to engage in oversight or maybe even refrain from employing their own disinformation tactics..

and since we may well have realized that bitcoin is the money of the internet, bitcoin has provided with quite a few ways that monetary value can be literally attached to the transmission of information, so a whole new layer of complexity comes into play in regards to what lines might be being crossed if governments are prying into financial information that they might not have previously had access and for sure we cannot be presuming that they have any kind of inherent right to see the information and we cannot even presume that some of the legal precedent is correct in terms of some areas that they have historically had access or have not have had access. it remains quite murky, currently contentious in some circles and ongoingly with aspects of explosive potentialities.

There are a lot of us who recognize that in several ways bitcoin has been engaging in various kinds of implementation aspirations and even practices to attempt to mimics aspects of physical cash transactions and some of the privacy that can be present through physical cash transactions.. but of course, the transmissibility of bitcoin causes it to raise some potentially legitimate public interest concerns for whether the same levels of privacy might still be permissible within an instrument (such as bitcoin) in which it is so easy to transmit to anywhere in the world and to anyone without preemptively stopping it... but perhaps post hoc being able to look at it in the event that there might be some ways in which some of that remains traceable.. which quite a bit still is open in bitcoin but there have always been ways to make various aspects of transactions private, while even very sophisticated persons will still sometimes fuck up and cause leaks in their transactions, which surely remains in the public interest if crimes might have been committed.


Actually, that might be another good point that you are making D_W, and I would not characterize it as "sad" but instead a demonstration that there are a lot of folks who have hardly any clue and it is not necessarily a bad thing that they are engaged in some blissful renditions to describe what they believe is going on, and the same is true that sometimes we wished that the lawmakers were to know what they are talking about a wee bit MOAR better, and when they come out with such outrageously dumb talking points that conclude the opposite of the truth, such as proclaiming that bitcoin is not ESG-friendly, then sometimes we might want to breath some sighs of relief that anything that any of those kinds of lawmakers attempt to implement is going to cause them to get reckt in one way or another, even if it is just the downfall of their reputation showing that they don't know shit. .and they might even get memified into considerable public ridicule for how dumb they are...  

Quite a bit of the ESG and green movement discussions seem to be going down that path... not that they might not have some short-term traction in some jurisdictions and cause miner migration to more friendly jurisdictions and in the meantime, tick tock next block whether bitcoin has 1m miners or 10k miners, the difficulty is going to adjust . and yes there may well be some attempts to attack, but the attacker is going to have to build the fuck out of their mining fleet in order to engage in such mining attacks, and sure some of us (even yours truly) considered the possibility that the 2021 China miner drama could have some possibilities for government level attacks on bitcoin and its mining, and even if there might have been some preparations in that direction to make such an attack, it seems that bitcoin (and miners) learned from that, which seems to have made bitcoin stronger. and sure, never say never about various attacks that could be made or that are in the works of being set up, but bitcoin remains a pretty decent formidable and moving target that is not 100% invulnerable, but still I continue to believe that anyone who is a no coiner or a low coiner better get the fuck off of zero, and now is just as good as any other time, if not even better than it was 8 months ago.

I see this and I wonder,

What happened to the "Do not borrow to invest idea or principle"
Perhaps it's the trick on how they stay ahead?

But wait, they might have means to make up for any unexpected lose.
In the end, don't just jump in on a plan when you don't know the plan B!!!

This tells you, bitcoin is best for long term investment. You've got to be cultured enough to exercise years of patience and crypto is not some get rich, escape from poverty scheme. This idea gets you mixed up with pump and dump altcoins. Be patient wth bitcoin!!!

Explanation

Explanation

I hate to say that you might be right.. you party poop...


But, I also hate to be spreading overly optimistic cheer when it is not warranted, and for sure, I probably should be updating my downity prediction percentages (since I had last updated them on May 19 - when BTC prices were around $27k), but I really do not like thinking about downity in terms of a lot of details even though I still retain some ideas in my head.. I might just not want to get into those scenarios very much - I am not going to admit to being in denial of the possibility of down or even a lower low as you frame it that's for sure, because I have various specific and ballpark preparations that continue to including buying more if the BTC price goes down and maybe even resorting to HODL, too... or maybe DCA... living various aspects of life and maybe figuring out whether or not certain expenses might need to get cut.. so rather than five hookers, lambos and blow to hunker down to ONLY two... things like that to make it through these admittedly tougher times.

So yeah right now our lowest low of this cycle remains at $17,953.. so it may well not hurt to plug in some downity predictions at some point.. I am not feeling like doing it, yet.. I hate to even talk about where my various buy orders are at currently (even though they are there.. just not in the mood to discuss at this time.. you fuckers.. (not referring to anyone in particular)).

And gosh, holy shit LFC.. I hope it does not take 2 years for many of us BTC HODLers to feel better.. If we keep up various decent practices of prudence in our BTC management practices, whether we consider our lil selfies in the accumulation, maintenance or liquidation phase of our BTC investment, I am hoping that it should not take 2 years to start feeling MOAR better... Yeah, if we engaged in considerable fuck ups including over-leveraging or other risky plays that caused us to lose significant portions of our BTC (let's say more than 10%-ish), then it could take 2 years or longer for those guys to start feeling MOAR better.. and they may well never get back to even close to where they were.. variations in the form of getting reckt... anyhow, maybe I am just quibbling with how any of the more prudent/reasonable folks (I am including my lil selfie here) are going to need to have such high expectations that we have to get back to $50k or whatever before we start feeling MOAR better.... I don't really want to quibble too much but I don't really have to have BTC get back to ATHs or even $50k before I feel good, and I would anticipate that having some prudence and reasonableness in practices and expectations, there are a whole hell of a lot of ways to profit from BTC and continue to profit from BTC, especially for anyone who has longer time frames - even if some (even prudent) folks are currently under water - perhaps folks who have been in bitcoin for less than 2 years may well be underwater currently, yet I am still going to argue that any folks who got in less than 2 years and happen to be underwater are still likely not even in a bad place so long as continuing to employ whatever means of combinations of DCA, buy on dips and/or HODL...

Of course, your milage may vary (especially for you guys under water)..and even though I had spent a couple of years underwater (LFC, too I believe), even though I sometimes felt some tensions about being under water, I also felt a bit of pleasure on those occasions when I got some extra cashflow (or DCA abilities) to have the fortune to be able to buy BTC and to realize every single purchase that I was making at that time was causing my total average cost per BTC to get pulled to a lower cost per BTC.

By the way, I cannot help myself from continuing to type.. fuckk..

The guys in their liquidation phase or close to being in their liquidation phase of their BTC investment are likely most fucked in terms of whatever dilemmas that they might be feeling, currently... no one wants to be selling at these kinds of prices.. so probably the best that those in their liquidation phases can attempt to do is to just attempt to be somewhat modest in the amounts of their sales.. and to figure out if they are able to hold on for whatever period of down in the short term might still exist.. or flat.. or even little spikes up.. and sure there are always chances of a v bottom and total recking of various shorts.. and the reality of the matter is that those are minority likelihoods that probably should not be banked on.. even though they sometimes do happen from time to time.. and April 2019 until June 2019 was one of those.. but they are surely not assured, even though they can happen.. so the dilemma of those in or close to liquidation phases is if they had already cashed some out at higher prices then they may well be sitting o.k... but if they haven't they have to make various assessments about what to do too in terms of making through our current period of seeming bottom that could go lower or might not.


If you are a low coiner or no coiner, and you are positive about bitcoin, then surely you can appreciate these kinds of times to accumulate, but if you have a lot of BTC and you might not have cashed out as much as you should have, then you may well be more panicked and nervous.. and moreso if you might have engaged in some leveraging of your stash.. 


There may be some people who fucked up in their assessments in terms of their own financial management (how much to keep in cash versus BTC) and/or their risk management (where to store your BTC and if you want to get a dividend on your BTC).

Maybe I should give an example?

I know a person who does not really seem to understand BTC very well, and kind of just goes along with the NGU technology and surely was expecting $100k by the end of 2021, and maybe even to have some of those high prices to linger into 2022.. but each year this person is supposed to be selling a portion of BTC to be able to live and to cover some expenses (projects etc - even living a higher life style than what had been available prior to getting into BTC several years earlier). 

Around early April I recall having a discussion with such person when the BTC prices were around $47k, and there had been no cashing out of any BTC yet, and there were potentially a lot of bills coming in June/July/August due to ongoing and anticipated construction costs and some other stuff. I expressed some concerns that nothing had been cashed out, and I anticipate that there were ongoing thoughts that the BTC price was going to go up rather than down, and they would be o.k. with flat too, but we neither got up and we also did not get flat, so then we are faced with DOWN, and I also learned that the same person had been getting income from one of the entities that had connections with the various scam projects that either went belly up or are in various states or insolvency..

The person seems to be in a situation of a forced seller, because coins are drying up. and the bills are coming in... and the person failed/refused to be more prudent.  By the way, I knew about that persons involvement in one of those interest bearing accounts for more than 3 years because that person had tried to give me a reference code and was doing that to entice other newbies into bitcoin. and there was nothing scandalous about it, it was merely based on good intentions to get others involved into bitcoin and to earn an interest rate too... Several times, I mentioned that bitcoin is designed to pump forever, so you should not be putting your money into those kinds of products, so my point is that even people with good intentions get into those kinds of illiquid products and then their overall funds and funds available dry up. Even if the person might have had 15 BTC and they only had 2 or 3 BTC in such product, 2-3 BTC is still a lot of BTC for their own financial circumstances to potentially lose or to just have locked up...and people can be stubborn, even when they don't really know, they are willing to take risks, even if they are not bad people or anything.. and they might even have a lot of common sense, but they still get into a kind of pickle situation with both their maintenance of cash versus bitcoin and their desire to earn on their BTC that they hold based on merely wanting to earn 3% or whatever.

Explanation

If I properly understand what you are saying, that is not a bad point - not that we need to compete with each other in terms of "which one of us gets richer" because from my point of view, I think that one of the major points continues to be the extent to which anyone of us is able to apply his/her BTC strategies in such a way that complements his/her own individual circumstances, which might not necessarily result in higher performance down the road in regards to one indicator (how much richie did I get, for example) but instead just providing a certain level of comfort regarding risk management and being able to sleep better at night, even if the end result may well not be doing whatever it takes to get more richie. 

Surely, we see that some times, guys engage in gambling techniques because their goals are to end the day being more richie than their neighbor or some random person on the interwebs (or being able to say "I told you so"), and those do seem like shallow goals even though we likely do need to admit that a lot of us (not even excluding yours truly here) may well have tendencies to engage in these kinds of potentially shallow competitive comparisons.

It is not necessarily even bad to make comparisons, and I have found it to sometimes be beneficial to suggest that someone's investing into BTC technique seems to NOT even be beating a reasonable/prudent DCA strategy, so maybe it is not fair of me to do that, but many of us have come to realize that DCA can be carried out in a way that allows it to serve as a decently low stress technique to ongoingly invest into BTC without so much getting caught up in the day to day or getting caught up in the fairly violent price swings that can take years (even up to 4 years or longer (we have seen in recent times) to play themselves out).   

So, perhaps it is somewhat cruel of me and maybe even somewhat insensitive to criticize folks for underperforming a reasonable/prudent long term DCA strategy, and I find it somewhat irrelevant if they have outperformed a reasonable/prudent long term DCA strategy - even if that could be icing on the cake and or attributable to either skill, luck or both, and it can be very difficult to really have any kinds of knowledge regarding whether their ability to outperform a reasonable/prudent long term DCA strategy is replicable.

From my point of view, sometimes there can be some fruitfulness in making comparisons - so long as we are attempting to minimize the injection of ego into the competition, and surely its not easy to keep our egos in check - especially if we happen to be a human (not naming any names here - nor trying to subtly insert my lil selfie into such club)

That’s the spirit!  Bitcoin is fine.  Only weak hands and leveraged longs will wind up in a world of hurt.

That is no reason to make all of the information public!  BIP 32 explicitly contemplates use cases where a party may have a legitimate need to watch all of the transactions in what, to the public, would appear to be separate wallets.  For example:

Edit:  Jay made that edit while I was writing, editing, pulling up links/quotes, searching fruitlessly for the Gmax quote that I distinctly recall from years ago, etc.  Thanks.

Fidelity released a very simple “Valuing bitcoin” paper.




They get to some decent hopium numbers

(@JuanJeeGee  can click
here directly, avoiding link to a Link)

Maybe, but i feel like you can only predict the price, but not the time.
$250K...very possible. Time? Who knows.

However, I saw a strong argument from B. Cowen that most likely price at the halving in 2024 would be around $40K.
Is it too low? Maybe, but entirely within the historical precedent after a bear market.
If around 40K at halving, then 250K (or 150-300K) in 2025 is doable.
In 2020 bitcoin traded around 9K at the halving and ATH was 67.6K (on the daily close basis), so it is a 7.5X move.
40KX7.5=300K. Subtract for lower bump (diminishing returns) and 150K-300K should be attainable.

BTW, during the current stage (bottoming), the most bounce I can see is around 47K (similar to the premature mini bull in 2019).

Explanation

I have a hard time believing that anyone who holds/controls large sums of bitcoin are going to keep it in places that can be identified as being owned by one person or entity (unless they are a public company or a government that has to make those kinds of disclosures).  Private individuals or even private institutions should be disincentivized in being known for controlling large amounts of bitcoin.  So even with something like 130k BTC, there might be some preferences to not keep more than a certain amount in any one place.. maybe with a person or an entity with something like 130k BTC, something less than 10k in any one location?  Sure, there might be some folks who want to keep it all in one location, but that surely seems risky for a variety of reasons...

By the way, I could understand/appreciate that if there is a private trust or some kind of a joint ownership, then there might be some need to create some traceability regarding sources, so the other joint owners know about fairness and accountability.. so maybe i am arguing against myself to consider that there could be some cases in which accountability or tracking of ownership is preferred.  Oh, as I am typing I just considered another case of inheritance, so a private individual or private entity might want to show ownership so that if anything ever happened, then the heirs (or the beneficiaries) will know how much BTC is out there and the various locations to find the BTC.  

Anyhow, I am having some difficulties appreciating very many situations in which there would be incentives to have very large amounts of wealth to be traceable to private entities.  I speculate that many of the BIGGEST of the bitcoiners are going to exercise a sufficient amount of camouflaging of their coins, and sure they might disclose to a few others, but not really allow for situations (like holding al the coins in one place) to be part of their regular or best practices.. so maybe my conclusion is that the 130k BTC may well be of some kind of public or quasi-public entity but the author of the article just does not know and might even be fishing for crowd sourcing.. which we are helping when we speculate in connection with such article..

Edit:  D_W made similar points (with examples) in his earlier post, too.

Late 2025

JUST IN: Bitcoin miners have borrowed  $4B against their equipment - Bloomberg 😳

Bitcoin will get to $250K “by late 2022 or early 2023" says Tim Draper.

Source:https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1540723317790937090

People understand that this is the best time to buy bitcoin but are not ready to be patient with bitcoin,  they are just greedy , only expecting profit from bitcoin at all time, forgetting that bitcoin is volatile and when the price go down low the only option is to have patience to wait when the market add values .