Looks like resistance at 110 - 115 is waning. Time for 120?
I think the wall at 120 and the strong previous support - now resistance at 121 prevent any crossing of this line for now.
A retracement to 105-6 is in order when the assault to 120 fails. This would be my original prediction from several hours ago.
True, there is resistance at 120-124 (that big volume hammer on the downside) but we broke through it on the rally or bounce out.
I think that makes that resistance weaker, no?
We will need several attempts to leave the resistance levels of about 121, 135 and 150 behind. Then there is 167 and 267, but they were never confirmed with volume anyways.
I prefer to think that the strength of the resistance is important, but equally important is the move required to reach it. It is like marching armies to a battle.
Sun Tzu writes:
Thus, if you order your men to roll up their buff-coats, and make forced marches without halting day or night, covering double the usual distance at a stretch, doing a hundred LI in order to wrest an advantage, the leaders of all your three divisions will fall into the hands of the enemy. The stronger men will be in front, the jaded ones will fall behind, and on this plan only one-tenth of your army will reach its destination.
If you march fifty LI in order to outmaneuver the enemy, you will lose the leader of your first division, and only half your force will reach the goal.
If you march thirty LI with the same object, two-thirds of your army will arrive.
You have a certain buying pressure, but if you want to conquer something that is 100 li (about 25%) away, no matter how weak it is, you will certainly fall. After such a move, sellers smell any sign of blood, and the 61% retracement is sure to happen. (This is pretty much my trading strategy: only sell after this move, because you cannot really lose)
If you need to advance 50 li (12.5%) and then demolish the wall, half of the buying pressure is already relieved, and likely the wall will hold. Even if it falls, the chances are great that the region will be revisited sooner or later.
After 30 li (7.5%) you have a mighty power to attack a wall, but even then, the victory is not sure.
Depending of the strength of the resistance, it should take up to 4 assaults to conquer it. No matter how strongly you destroy the wall, the region will be revisited. From hindsight, it was not a surprise that $50 support defended
4 intraday assaults during the mid-April crash. It
took 5 assaults to conquer it when it was a resistance.
I admit I was wrong with my $115 never again call. I just did not see any stronger holds than $121 which was the 1st retracement of the 50->167 move. My fundamental analysis bias is also there. I see sub-1000 bitcoin as so insanely great a buy that I have a hard time differentiating between 134 and 78, although I probably should...
