But I was too pessimistic. I still think we can go quite lower short term, but I'm now pretty much convinced that $50 was the real bottom. In my book, thats quite bullish - heck, we where at $14 at the beginning of this year
People seem to be forgetting that you could buy thousands of Bitcoin for $15 each only four months ago.
Are they really worth $113 or more right now ?
Nobody seems to think so or they would not be sitting on the orderbook remaining unsold for days.
The market is
different from 4 months ago.
Consider 11 million bitcoins. 1 million probably lost, and 75% sitting in wallets rarely moving. This leaves 2.5 million active in the market, the "free float"
Winklevii have absorbed 110k for a long-term investment. Many others have done the same. Assume that 1000 people have recently taken 1000 coins each for long-term holdings as the news frenzy went on. That means the 2.5m free float has been halved. Market dynamics are complex and this could easily mean a stable 8x increase in value.
This will constantly change. When BTC passes $1000 many stale coins from the 75% will wake-up and hit the market. Expect price swings like $1,700 to $700 in a few days. All the newspuppies who called Bitcoin a bubble ponzi will also wake-up and claim they were right. It continues...
