I have always prompted people to read my diary first, before daytrading (if any). Since bitcoin is going to $300k in the long run (and higher in the short), it does not make so much sense to fish the bottom unless you do it full time with an organization primed for the task (a supernode).
Just buy and hold. Buying bitcoins at any price sub-100k is not as large a mistake, as it would be to be left out of a supermove, such as the ones in the period between 8/2010-6/2011 and the one started in January 2013.
If everyone were so smart as you claim to be, they would make so much money daytrading that all bitcoins would end up in their pockets in a few short months. I am accumulating about 0.5%-1% of the new mining supply daily. I am content with it, since if the price goes down, this goes up.
The adoption of bitcoin in my observation is growing at a 10-30% weekly rate (and I actually observe things before making my fundamental predictions). There is not much room for further decreases fundamentally.
If we see the third order capitulation to $78, it does not alter any of the fundamental facts.
I saw the bubble coming and sold above $200. My miscalculation was that we would only crash to $100-$120 area and bounce back (2. fib). We did go even as low as $50 and tested it several times (4. fib).
In my thinking, 2. fibonacci should close all moves, everything of higher order is too wonderful to me to understand, and I just buy until it goes away (which it usually does).
I have 10,000 ounces of silver. Takers (pay with bitcoin only)?
think it's outrageous?
there are 21 million bitcoins to be made. if only a percent of the world population the size of USA were to get into the bitcoin economy, let's assume everyone of investing age, about 210 million people
This means each person could only have 0.1BTC if it was divided evently. Yes there are 7 more decimal places
But the real fact is how much wealth would these people have? It totals in trillions.
If one billionaire decides to put $1 billion into bitcoin thats all it takes to almost double the price ( see the market cap )
People like this are probably getting in slowly so they don't drive the price up too fast.