Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3525. (Read 26610404 times)

I know we are the choir here.

But UST based on Terra Luna was underpinned using DPoS.

I have neither done the analysis, nor have I seen any complete on this wreckage yet, but I am curious how much of what has happened can be laid at the feet of PoS.  I suspect at least a portion of it.

This may be the future for ETH if they take this route.  Imagine the black hole that would create when it collapses.

This is truly horrifying.  The "toxic maxis" ought to be memeing this as the result of PoS no matter what, actually...

There will always be retards holding money in higher regards then their life.          

...

HUGE volume of BTC transactions, most with fees in the 12 - 15 sats/vB range (though if I needed something sent today I would pay 20+).  All of this started at 12:50 PM ET today.  ~117 blocks JUST to clear what's already stacked up on the blockchain.  Very unusual, I haven't seen anything like this recently.

See:

mempool.space

bitbo.io

Explanation

A Guys From my Country Committed suicide. I cannot confirm the legitimacy of this. But the handwriting style looks like sarcasm. I wouldn't be surprised if it's real too.

I guess I should've picked up some UST before bed last night.  At $0.30 it was a hell of a double opportunity in a few hours.  As LUNA continues to be dumped to anyone who will take it in order to try and save UST, it appears they've also dumped a great deal of alts as the market is slaughtered today.  Probably a good opportunity to grab shitcoins as a result.  I wouldn't touch LUNA, but I still think UST is likely to be closer to it's peg before this is all over.  So glad I didn't listen to people and buy LUNA when everyone was saying how smart Do Kwon was...  It's never smart to telegraph your major buys and then go through with it as the price skyrockets as a result.  Play dumb games, win dumb prizes...

Lucky for me, I have exactly zero interest in them, and hold the same amount - zero.  I have bought some USDT on Liquid just to see what it feels like and ended up making a profit getting back into BTC entirely by accident.

I have always been dubious about Blockstream's (read Adam Back's) USDT romance, and have also been very doubtful about the real use and safety of a "decentralized stablecoin".  The whole thing is just ripe for abuse.

I hate that I am going to have to get old as hell watching the world come to the slowest possible conclusion that blockchain was all about Bitcoin in the end.  I think Blockstream has the right idea that building sidechains is where some fun VC type adventures are going to happen... but stablecoins?  Not without a trusted third party.  And well...

Nothing.  That's it.  That's the whole thing.

Not only Luna & UST was attacked. According to CoinmarketCap's Stable coin list, At least Three Freaking Stable Coin was attacked. Neutrino USD, USDX and UST. Just Because Luna and its UST are more popular, that's why people are only talking about it. I wouldn't be surprised if UST loses its 100% Value in the coming days because it has happened before. Have you ever heard of USDP Stablecoin? It was a Shitcoin-backed So called Stablecoin which one already lost its 100% Value. Of course, Terra-Luna is a bit different. Let's see how it impacts the overall market.

To me it appears that Heater has given you the most fundamental and soundest of advices.. and you choose to completely ignore it instead of attempting to deal with reality.

Let me see if I can explain a bit further.

If our current price is $30.3k, and if we are in a bull market, then the odds of breaking up are greater than the odds of breaking down.. but then there is still a matter of degree.

To me it seems that after we have gone below the 100-week moving average (which is at $35k) and we have now been there for more than 4 days.. we have transitioned into a bear market... so the odds are greater to break down than up... but still how far we break down is not exactly known in advance, either.

Even if you have your doubts about whether we are in a bear market and you believe that we are in a bull market.. you still are not going to get much higher than 50/50 odds in terms of breaking up instead of down.  I will throw out some numbers, and for sure you do not  have to agree with them because you can assign your own numbers, but still in the end, you should be attempting to allocate your portfolio in such a way that mirrors your view of the probabilities rather than completely ignoring scenarios that you do not like - because otherwise you would be gambling rather than investing (or playing a roulette wheel)..

So consider the below assigned percentages as possible Downity scenario peaks from where we are at currently and where the bottom would happen.. and at this time, I am going to ascribe our down odds at about 53% right now.. even though I am just stabbing in the dark really...  But in the end, all my assignments of probability numbers (even though somewhat out of my ass) on the way down add up to 53%

Anyhow, here's a possible assignment of where the bottom might occur from here $30.3k-ish as I type.

above $29k - most timid of bearish scenarios  -   about 9% odds

$27.5k to $29k  - plausible bearish  -   about 12.5% odds

$25k to $27.5k  - could happen bearish  -   about 13.5% odds

$22.5k to $25k  - pretty severe bearish  -   about 7.5% odds

$20k to $22.5k  - worser case bearish  -   about 5.5% odds

$17.5k to $20k  - a bit of a stretch bearish  -   about 2.5% odds

$13k to $17.5k  - overly bearish -   about 1.5% odds

$10k to $13k  - way overly bearish -   about 0.5% odds

below $10k  - not very likely but possible -   less than 0.5% odds

By the way I hate to go too far over 50% in terms of my assignment of bearishness even though it feels that we have ongoing downity momentum for now, and I have not really figured out exactly what kind of UPpity would cause us to get out of our current transition into a bear market.. for sure getting above the 100-week moving average would likely be helpful.. and maybe doing so by more than 10% might be something that might be plausible or just staying above such 100-week moving average for a week or longer might be enough?  I have not figured it out in my own head, yet.. regarding what level of UP I would need to suggest that the bear market is done or that we are back in a bull market... for sure, there is a bit of a lagging indicator aspect to those kinds of bear/bull market assessments, too.  


You still should be attempting to deal with the reality of where you believe the price might go and to set yourself up so that you are prepared for those possibilities.  If you are ONLY betting that the price will go up, you likely have a 50/50 chance of losing that.. and so if you are prepared for various levels of down scenarios in advance, then you have a plan to account for those down scenarios, even if you may well assign the probability numbers differently.  For sure, not everyone is going to assign probabilities the same, but if you treat everything below $29k as if they were zero chances, you seem to have pretty decent chances of getting recked.. and my above chart shows below $29k as having 41% chances of happening (if you add all the numbers up)... and yeah, I might not be correct, but just trying to assign some kind of framework to attempt to help to snap you (and others perhaps) back into reality that the numbers for down are not zero.. merely because we have already seen prices as low as $29k which would be 58% down from our $69k top.


Fuck that nonsense.

You seem to be lecturing Biodom, but you seem to be the one who is in a pickle and having some issues about how you are managing your risk...

Nothing wrong with accumulating bitcoin, but you also need to manage your risk too..

Good lord! You guys pontificate about the benefits of bitcoin DCA "strategy" like for days and days and days here on the WO.

Umpteen gazillion pages written about something so simple and benign.

Way to make something WAAAAYY more complicated than it needs to be.

Either:

a) Just buy on the major dips, or

b) put a set amount of DCA buys on autopilot at the end of every week, two weeks, or month, or

c) all of the above.

Also d) stay the fk away from shitcoins.

Sheesh, what is so fucking hard about this?

Explanation

Investors are fleeing



Not your keys not your coins.
https://fortune.com/2022/05/11/coinbase-bankruptcy-crypto-assets-safe-private-key-earnings-stock/

its a shitcoin bloodbath
xD

It seems that the best strategies are to attempt to tailor to your own psychological and financial situation in terms of both figuring out a sufficiently aggressive approach while NOT overdoing it....

In terms of BTC accumulation, I always consider dollar cost averaging to be the most important because it allows for getting in almost right away (after setting up accounts - wallets, or whatever to be used to get exposure) and then to be able to learn as you go.. to then be able to tweak your strategies.. and surely the other two main methods that can supplement DCA is lump sum investing and buying on dips...

Surely it can take a long time for anyone to figure out the better ways to attempt to tailorize those methods to his/her situation..and surely sometimes when someone is really dumb (not meant as an insult) or confused about what to do, DCA can serve as a kind of means to do something with a relatively small amount while maybe studying one's own situation and to adjust the approach in the future.

And SERIOUSLY.  For the LUNA bagholders...  Help is just a call away.  Whatever you are thinking is probably not worth it.

Seriously... O.M.G.



(Hard not to buy a bag here, really... but this homie don't play that)

Not to sound apathetic, but I file this into "People not old enough to remember the carnage of those gullible scammed by penny stock scams in the 1980's and 90's"

And yes, many of those people lost their life savings and ended up committing suicide.

History repeats.

Also, "Biiiiittttconnnnnect !!!"

It CAN be both.

So, Bitcoin has bounced off the yearly low today...  It would be great if this was the bottom, but most signs do not point to that.  Still Bitcoin does what it likes to, and I think it is acting great considering the environment.

Could be in for a little altpocalypse action here, which usually painful is some of the best medicine.

Probably the latter.