Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3606. (Read 26608013 times)

Explanation

Don't trade Bitcoin.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheBitcoinConf/status/1517201903267901440

Haha, not at all. Believe me

I saw a blog which said we are half way done to the next halving, so I decided to make this chart and post it here.

No bullish/bearish intentions at all.

Peace <3


+1 WOmerit. Looks really confusing

Yeah but





What you seems to be saying is largely what I am already saying in my earlier post and my attempts to make the comparison between two hypothetical persons.. that through the numbers ended up NOT really establishing my point very well... maybe it is the short timeframe of only two years versus if I had attempted to establish a longer timeframe, perhaps?






Anyhow, part of my point was meant to be just ongoingly buying is that we are not really going to know BTC price direction, and largely if we are going to dicker around with buying on dips, then we likely should ONLY be doing that with minority portions of our overall ongoing buys.. .

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-says-crypto-could-121349889.html

dyor



stronghands

I know that you want to draw an inference from this - ImThour.

Go ahead.


Do it.


Do it.



You want to say that in the last two halvenings, we ended up declining in price at the half way through the halvening period point, right?


Go on... say it.



Say it.





Are you going to say it?









Hahahahaha

Good luck with that going away thingie-ma-jiggie bois.  I am not even saying that BTC prices are going up this summer.. but I do recall 2019.. we had around a 3.5x that started in the beginning of April and lasted until the end of June, and I wonder how those go-away-in-May peeps did in 2019?

Explanation

I doubt that regular members here are hostile to TA for the mere sake of it - but for sure there can be some irritations when the TA seems to be seeking a down outcome - so for sure many of us are more aggravated by down projections that are seeming to ascribe too much probability to such down scenarios having to happen.. and you have been doing that for quite a long time, even though you do weave in some seemingly neutral and bullish posts from time to time - which does not necessarily forgive you from some of your earlier outrageous DOWNity calls.

I understand that even I do not necessarily back up what I am saying very well - even when I might be irritated by some posts that might seem to provide fuel for newbies to fail/refuse to take sufficient actions to prepare themselves for UP. It is not easy to be buying on a regular basis.

I don't mind attempting to present several hypotheticals in order to attempt to illustrate some of my points, and of course, it seems to me that if guys (and gal) are presented with such information then of course, they are able to more informatively choose their own level of participation and whether they might tweak what they are doing to prepare for up.  

Hypotheticals are frequently good, and even using some kind of variation of your own timeline in bitcoin can be helpful in order to attempt to figure out various ways that someone who has been into bitcoin for a couple of years might consider this whole bitcoin accumulation matter.

So of course we can look back two years, and figure out that a person who went balls to the walls in March/April 2020 in terms of putting all his value into bitcoin (including using debt to invest in bitcoin) would have been sitting quite pretty right now, even if had cashed out some value to pay off debt along the way at various higher price points.  But the world does not tend to work like that.  We do not necessarily know what is going to happen, so we cannot project out what we should have done based on our knowledge of what actually ended up happening... we just have to attempt to best approximate what some kind of reasonable hypothetical person might have done... and we can even skew the hypothetical person in various ways to attempt to make points about what might be good strategies, even if they are likely not perfect strategies, because it is not going to be very common that we really can know the bottoms or tops or to time our buys at the bottom or our sales at the top (and I am not personally even recommending that any newbies fuck around with sales on the way up - and that might be one of my ongoing tension with what you seem to be pushing, ImThour).

So I am going to describe two hypothetical persons who found out about bitcoin for about two years.  Hypothetical one is skeptical about DCA investing in bitcoin and is trying to time dips, and hypothetical 2 is DCAing.

Both has a hypothetical lump sum investment budget of $6k that could have been put into bitcoin starting from two years ago, and then an extra cashflow of about $600 per month that could have been put into bitcoin (so over two years, that cashflow has been able to build up to 24 mos x $600 = $14,400. ... so the total budget over 2 years is about $20,400.  I am only going to describe BTC buy strategies, and not sell strategies because selling BTC in early stages of accumulation overly complicates matters, causes the whole situation to be a kind of gambling rather than investing and is not a good practice while still getting early stakes in bitcoin and when not even close to fuck you status, over accumulation or over allocation in BTC.

We can proclaim that initially Hypothetical 1 had some skepticisms about bitcoin, so in the first 6 months ended up ONLY investing $2k with an average Buy price of $7,500 per BTC, and then saw the BTC price moving up in September/October 2020 and invested a lump sum of $5k at about $12k, then saw the BTC price dipping in early 2021 invested a lump sum of $6k at about $35k,  and now is waiting for BTC to dip to $24k or a confirmation of supra $50k BTC prices to invest his remaining $7.4k.

Here's what Hypothetical 1's numbers look like:  

$Purchase amount           BTC price            Amount of BTC               Description

$2k                           $7,500               0.26666667                           Lump sum

$5k                           $12,000               0.41666667                             Lump sum                      

$6k                           $35,000               0.17142857                             Lump sum            

Totals
Dollar(dry powder)           BTC price            Amount of BTC             Current Value  BTC      Current Value all
$7,400                                $42k                 0.85476191                   $35,900                        $43,300


Hypothetical person 2 starts to invest into BTC right away and attempts to maintain ongoing DCA investing, Lump sum investing and buying on dips.  He does not time the exact BTC bottom, but tries to prepare for price dips.   He divides the $6k into three parts, for buy on dips, DCA and lump sum, and so he lump sums $2k right away.  His cashflow is divided into three also,  1/3 for buying on dips and 2/3 for DCA and lumpsum (which ends up being DCA).

So for the 24 month period, his DCA amount is $11,600 (($400x24 = $9,600 + $2,000 = $11,600, and his buy on dips amount is $6,800 ($200 x 24 = $4,800 + $2,000).  I will presume that around $4k had been used for buying on dips (which is about 60% of the allocated amount)


Here's what Hypothetical 2's numbers look like:  

$Purchase amount           BTC price            Amount of BTC          Description

$2k                           $5,000                      0.4                           Lump sum

$11,600  ($110 weekly)     Varies               0.51183                  
      DCA

$4k                           $40,000 (est.)              0.1                              Buying on dips

Totals
Dollar(dry powder)            BTC price            Amount of BTC             Current Value  BTC      Current Value all
$2,800                                $42k                 1.01183                   $42,497                        $45,297


I will admit that in my hypothetical, I likely made some presumptions that ended in worse results for the lump summer, which has to do with some hesitancy in buying BTC at various prices, and sure it is possible that sometimes the lump summer (hypothetical 1) is going to time it better than the DCA buyer but there are other times that the lump summer is going to wait and wait and wait.  

In the end, the results from this exploration are similar between the above two, but I would still proclaim that it is much better to not be trying to fuck around with guessing about the BTC price and not trying to time the market (except in small ways rather than with major parts of your investing sums), and in that regard it seems way best to have most BTC purchases as DCA.  

better...thanks tweeters


https://twitter.com/samcallah/status/1517171373256314880

+1 WOsMerit


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........ these assholes will not stop there.


Next thing they will be telling you how many times you can boil a kettle, or how many steaks you are allowed per year... they will probably tax farts if they could.

All to be enforced by a social credit score.

Get ready to eat bugs...

Unless these control maniacs are stopped, they will never ever ever ever stop.

If "hope" is what you got as a solution..... then you, me, all of us are rekt.

lol, faceless, clueless, bureaucrats......

Dangerous bureaucrats.


Fuckwits.


*Elizabeth Warrens masturbating intensifies   

https://www.pinterest.com/DiscoverAnimal/crypto-memes/

Well, the world is not the EU. China banned it. If the EU is stupid enough to ban it too, so be it. Bring it on, you fucks! I'm sick and tired of worrying about what the EU, China, the SEC or whoever else decides to do. Let them do it, and let this be a robustness test for Bitcoin. The EU should also fire their team of "blockchain experts", for not getting it. Maybe not just yet, but when they realise their mistake. What a bunch of ignorami...

Explanation

I know most politicians are ignorant...do any of them do research?   Anytime this question comes up...point them towards this idea....and i cant find it right now but the comparison of oil and gas production should be thrown in as well

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/research%3A-bitcoin-consumes-less-than-half-the-energy-of-the-banking-or-gold-industries


banking OR gold...two separate things btw


better yet...vote those people out of office

Ethereum isn't a crytocurrency and Ethereum is non-distributed as it is so w/e they change it will be from trash to trashier.

What is the next example they'll use to say Bitcoin should do something? Ripple? 

Anyway, the thesis was always based on the assumption they can't effectively ban or corrupt it. Every thesis needs testing so bring it on if they must. I'd rather they didn't but it is what it is.

Climate measures: Behind closed doors, EU officials talk about banning Bitcoin

Explanation

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1516954480364998661