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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3818. (Read 26713762 times)

legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
I surely would not put $120k at more than 40% odds for this calendar year, even though on December 6, I had assigned 44.5% odds of such number having had been reached by this calendar year or by no later than 1st quarter 2023.  Perhaps bitcoinPsycho has assigned higher odds than me?  perhaps greater than 50/50?  I might consider anyone assigning greater than 75% odds to something like that to be a bit looney.. yet sometimes it is a matter of degree (or probability assignments) rather than disagreeing on likely direction.. but just how likely remains another aspect to consider.. how far and how likely.


I agree with your probability of 40% (or 45?) that Bitcoin reaches $120k+ in 2022.  That sounds good.  fairly bullish in my opinion.  As there are lots of scenarios in the other 60% (35?) where Bitcoin makes it to somewhere north of 80.

But I will add a prediction of my own.

*IF* we make it to 120k...  a quarter mill within 6 months from that would be a 75% chance.

My basic reasoning is if we can make it that far past 100k, then I would think something between worldwide FOMO and a parabolic blow off are in the cards.  And I would favor the former with the difference being a less violent correction after it.  I think we stay volatile, but less so than in past years.  Another way to say it is I see 120k+ to be a 25% chance of being the TOP in your 40% chance scenario.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
Little bit of upside noise, but the main prediction remains perfectly intact as we remain within the predicted bear channel. Bitcoin will never reach $100k.


Ohh shit!... I was just thinking, when were you going to post! and bam! there you are!

BUY signal guys!.. best TA you ever need!

proudhon post = BULLISH!

cORRECTION... Proudhon is part of Bitcoin FUNDAMENTALS, rather than a technical indicator.

But that is is bullish, is correct.
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Part of the problem is that older guys might sometimes get tired of their wives,

-snip-

By the way, on that last point, there might be some willingness to assert that "I don't mind paying for the services that we agree to", but then even if we might be at magnitudes above entry-level fuck you status, we might not be very accustomed to "transactional relations," so in that regard, even if there might be a "transactional relationship" going on, we still want to attempt to maintain a kind of appearance that the relationship is not transactional, and creating those kinds of relationships might not be very easy to accomplish...   Am I talking from experience?  not going to get into those kinds of details, at this time.

By the way, one of the difficulties of having that long-term spouse relationship may be some of the possible "being discrete" issues because the wife might not completely mind if some of the side play starts to happen, but she may well not want to know details or to have anyone who she knows to know such details either.. in order that she can maintain face.

A detour from your usual waters, JJG. Bitcoiner problems many of us haven't (yet) dedicated enough thinkening to.

Have my last!

Well ?  What are you going to do?  I am trying to discuss ways that guys (or gals) might want to spend some of their wealth - especially when getting into possible extravagant levels and also not having had previously expected to have as much "excess" wealth as anticipated earlier.

I probably said too much because I was attempting to tie the subject in with sirazimuth's seeming interest in being the recipient of pain.. and both considering how money could solve some of the problems.. but still many times it can still be uncomfortable to either get into any relationship if the the person is claiming to be a "professional," or alternatively just expanding on the theme of taking the girl out for slurpies or burgers but instead taking her out to dinners worth several hundred.. and some of those kinds of experiences, including getting a place on the beach for the week could end up causing the situation in which the payment is not really direct, but instead paying for experiences...

Maybe it is just a matter of getting used to knowing how to be rich, because some guys/gals might conjecture that they would not pay for certain things, but then I already find myself to be paying for food and lodging that is like 3-5 times more expensive than my usual (and I am already accounting for the inflation aspects).... getting used to some of those kinds of ways to just spend extra (splurge) because why suffer?  On a date, instead of ordering 3-4 dishes, ordering 6 dishes or more because - I just feel like trying more of the items.... so instead of a bill for $50 to $100, the bill is for $200 to $300 for that same meal, but just getting more potentially "good" dishes, and yeah, during the meal, we were still ONLY able to eat the equivalent of 2 of the dishes, so it is like taking a sample from each dish.. maybe not even necessary (but I do get the dishes to go, too.. .. but then having food from that restaurant to eat for like 2 or 3 days)....  In stead of eating out once a week, eating out 3-4 times a week.... I suppose the dude has to show us how it is really done, with pics, too.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 75
UCT (United Crowd)
BTC testing 200 MA ( Moving avrage ) that is a good sign Bullish Trend as weeks is Blowing my mind

Lets see this weekend Vlosing candle.
legendary
Activity: 2520
Merit: 3038
Part of the problem is that older guys might sometimes get tired of their wives,

-snip-

By the way, on that last point, there might be some willingness to assert that "I don't mind paying for the services that we agree to", but then even if we might be at magnitudes above entry-level fuck you status, we might not be very accustomed to "transactional relations," so in that regard, even if there might be a "transactional relationship" going on, we still want to attempt to maintain a kind of appearance that the relationship is not transactional, and creating those kinds of relationships might not be very easy to accomplish...   Am I talking from experience?  not going to get into those kinds of details, at this time.

By the way, one of the difficulties of having that long-term spouse relationship may be some of the possible "being discrete" issues because the wife might not completely mind if some of the side play starts to happen, but she may well not want to know details or to have anyone who she knows to know such details either.. in order that she can maintain face.

A detour from your usual waters, JJG. Bitcoiner problems many of us haven't (yet) dedicated enough thinkening to.

Have my last!
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 3514
born once atheist
The f-bomb tirade was way out of line.  A jackass putting his anger management issues on display.
Albeit, Will is now gonna get that hummerjob he'd been begging for, for the past week....

Fake ass staged event for the dumb masses is fake af

That’s your opinion bro. I don’t think it was staged. That’s my opinion. I guess I must be a member
of the “dumb masses”


Yeah, I mean it makes total sense that as Chris Rock watches Will S. approach him on the stage, he grins a shit eating grin at him, puts his hands behind his back, and stands perfectly still...waiting for him. /s   Chris even leans his head in, as if to give Will S. a better target. Roll Eyes

Open your eyes, dude. It was all a staged publicity stunt. They planned that backstage. The Oscars are dying. Roll Eyes

I did open my eyes and watched, including Will’s f-bomb outburst, and I stand by my opinion that it wasn’t
staged. You may want to read up on the circumstances and aftermath.
Let’s just agree to disagree as we obviously see the world through different lenses.

…….

I actually think Will Smith's reaction MOSTLY came about from the fact he initially laughed himself until he saw disapproval from his wife.

The fact he didn't apologise to Chris when he got his award but instead went talking about a fairy in the sky and what his path should be with a quest of love etc made it even worse.


Bingo. You hit the nail on the head bro.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 4197
what if...

dyor



stronghands


newbie
Activity: 26
Merit: 0
”Exxon Mobil, one of the largest energy companies in the world, is using excess natural gas to mine bitcoin.”

Apompliano
legendary
Activity: 3990
Merit: 4597
The f-bomb tirade was way out of line.  A jackass putting his anger management issues on display.
Albeit, Will is now gonna get that hummerjob he'd been begging for, for the past week....

Fake ass staged event for the dumb masses is fake af

That’s your opinion bro. I don’t think it was staged. That’s my opinion. I guess I must be a member
of the “dumb masses”


Yeah, I mean it makes total sense that as Chris Rock watches Will S. approach him on the stage, he grins a shit eating grin at him, puts his hands behind his back, and stands perfectly still...waiting for him. /s   Chris even leans his head in, as if to give Will S. a better target. Roll Eyes

Open your eyes, dude. It was all a staged publicity stunt. They planned that backstage. The Oscars are dying. Roll Eyes

I did open my eyes and watched, including Will’s f-bomb outburst, and I stand by my opinion that it wasn’t
staged. You may want to read up on the circumstances and aftermath.
Let’s just agree to disagree as we obviously see the world through different lenses.

Not a stunt..and pretty pathetic, actually.
Even in my middle school it was considered to be uncool for a bigger boy to slap a clearly smaller one.
When the latter happened (infrequently), boys, who were even bigger, acted as the 'justice league' and pummel the offender to 'even the score' (and sometime later everyone fought, lol).
I wish Shaq or LeBron would bitchslap pathetic Will Smith (unless it was all staged-less than 10% probability, imho).
Can someone be C. Rocks' champion? Obviously there were none among the Academy.
The "King" slapped the "Jester", right?
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
The f-bomb tirade was way out of line.  A jackass putting his anger management issues on display.
Albeit, Will is now gonna get that hummerjob he'd been begging for, for the past week....

Fake ass staged event for the dumb masses is fake af

That’s your opinion bro. I don’t think it was staged. That’s my opinion. I guess I must be a member
of the “dumb masses”


Yeah, I mean it makes total sense that as Chris Rock watches Will S. approach him on the stage, he grins a shit eating grin at him, puts his hands behind his back, and stands perfectly still...waiting for him. /s   Chris even leans his head in, as if to give Will S. a better target. Roll Eyes

Open your eyes, dude. It was all a staged publicity stunt. They planned that backstage. The Oscars are dying. Roll Eyes

I did open my eyes and watched, including Will’s f-bomb outburst, and I stand by my opinion that it wasn’t
staged. You may want to read up on the circumstances and aftermath.
Let’s just agree to disagree as we obviously see the world through different lenses.

I agree with this.

I can see where some people are coming from thinking it's staged:
Oscar viewer ratings are in the toilet, controversy gets everyone talking about it (absolutely!), they are actors etc, the slap may look weird the more you analyse it etc.


However, I really don't think they would EVER stage this with black actors at this point and I think this is going to have some consequences for the Oscars going forwards such as adding stage security.

Will Smith clearly has a tantrum issue probably heightened by family problems: His wife admitting to sleeping around. His son into weird shit after a failed acting career.

I'm pretty sure they will strip him from the Oscar win in the next few days, either give it to Denzel or just leave best actor blank this year. There is no way this can be acceptable. No one will want to present again and make jokes. It also diminishes the wins from everyone else who behaves normally even in the face of jokes which have been worse in the past.

If you sit front row at any show with comedians you can expect what Chris Rock said and more. I used to go to a comedy club at my university days. We would stay clear from front row and arrive early!

I actually think Will Smith's reaction MOSTLY came about from the fact he initially laughed himself until he saw disapproval from his wife.

The fact he didn't apologise to Chris when he got his award but instead went talking about a fairy in the sky and what his path should be with a quest of love etc made it even worse.


I'm astonished people are defending Will but maybe I shouldn't be. After all we are living in a time when armed terrorists literally go on a suicide mission to execute people because they made fun of their little bedtime story prophet in a comic book.
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 3514
born once atheist
The f-bomb tirade was way out of line.  A jackass putting his anger management issues on display.
Albeit, Will is now gonna get that hummerjob he'd been begging for, for the past week....

Fake ass staged event for the dumb masses is fake af

That’s your opinion bro. I don’t think it was staged. That’s my opinion. I guess I must be a member
of the “dumb masses”


Yeah, I mean it makes total sense that as Chris Rock watches Will S. approach him on the stage, he grins a shit eating grin at him, puts his hands behind his back, and stands perfectly still...waiting for him. /s   Chris even leans his head in, as if to give Will S. a better target. Roll Eyes

Open your eyes, dude. It was all a staged publicity stunt. They planned that backstage. The Oscars are dying. Roll Eyes

I did open my eyes and watched, including Will’s f-bomb outburst, and I stand by my opinion that it wasn’t
staged. You may want to read up on the circumstances and aftermath.
Let’s just agree to disagree as we obviously see the world through different lenses.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 3990
Merit: 4597
my 99 dollar android is a lot cheaper than a 1100 dollar iPhone.

Probably better quality too.

Nope, but he would never know for obvious reasons.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k

Gold industry taps blockchain for supply chain management and fraud prevention obfuscation


There.


The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is near the lowest since mid-2021


Some of us remember when it sailed past what some were calling "gold parity" (ignoring the time it bubbled past it previously). Good luck with that.
legendary
Activity: 4242
Merit: 5039
You're never too old to think young.
Russia gets to be number 2 at the top. Which  might be what the Russian-Ukraine war is really about. Theater war about having defeated communism while sharing the new world order. USA gets to be at the top, of course. Russia gets to be player 2.
 
Hows that for buzzwords?

Buzzword test FAILED
Missing: CHINA




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 2057
A Bitcoiner chooses. A slave obeys.
Russia gets to be number 2 at the top. Which  might be what the Russian-Ukraine war is really about. Theater war about having defeated communism while sharing the new world order. USA gets to be at the top, of course. Russia gets to be player 2.
 
Hows that for buzzwords?

Buzzword test FAILED
Missing: CHINA


legendary
Activity: 2520
Merit: 3038
... now I have to wonder how long until Tether or USDC go to a bitcoin-backed model? ... hmmm

Without digging too deep, it sounds like a recipe for disaster.
The convexity of the curve goes the wrong way.
What if the backing asset (bitcoin), goes down too much wrt the tracked asset (USD)?
Not even 0% rehypothecation can make sure the whole thing doesn't collapse.
Like not even holding 200% btc reserves (as if they ever would).
"Durr durr it won't happen because bitcoin intrinsically superior, durr durr"
Irrational/solvent, markets are like this.
Algorithms are supposedly rational, but catastrophic events do happen.
Algorithmic bug or execution glitch, all it takes is once.
USDT/USDC should be backed by plain old greenbacks.
One to one.


(#SOMA warning)
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