Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3840. (Read 26713425 times)

Not exciting but strange. Anyhow, it was the exact start of this bullrun up to past $44k we are at now. And it has not slowed down.
I never have, while looking at the chart for price had it jump up so quickly like this. And I look at the 3minute (actually forgot to change it to 15minute) while looking at the price difference when making a buy of btc.
It probably was the Do Kwon effect with him doing $125million purchase buys of BTC at all different times of the day.
As he has proposed on his twitter he'll be doing.
But then again you don't care about these sh*tcoins ramblings.

And therein lies the interesting part of the bet, if you ask me.

You can ask:  If xxx BTC is destined to equal xx% of the worlds wealth, then what is it worth to hold, and what to cash out now?

And how does that balance with my geriatric mother, and my struggling sister, and my children, and my wife, and my own desires for extravagance (umm, nil).

And if xxx BTC is destined to equal xx% of the worlds wealth, then how much is it worth to me NOW to lock in some comfort and security for MYSELF rather than provide fir all those folks who did not see it coming.

THAT... is a VERY PERSONAL DECISION.  And one that cannot be rightly judge by any man or woman NOT in YOUR shoes.

(this is, by extension, the reason we get angry when people come to beg for BTC they could have bought, or mined (or in the case of some lunatics played poker for)).

Our growing knowledge regarding current uncertainties in keeping any value in cash or within assets that seems to have a lot of cash-embeddedness in them, seems to be part of the reason why LFC ONLY cashed out 25% - especially since around 3 years ago.. or maybe it was a bit longer than that?  LFC largely moved off of his earlier position in which he would have ended up cashing out very large portions of his BTC.. more than 80% if I recall correctly... so in considerable senses, LFC has reconsidered his position and even reconsidered the practicality of keeping a decent quantity of value continuing to ride within BTC.

It seems that quite a few of us within this thread have come around to this position in the past 3-5 years... and maybe some of these ideas came after bitcoin seemed to have had decisively won the 2017 block wars.. mostly resolving in the end of 2017 - but still having some lingering (mostly trolling) impacts for another year or two thereafter.

The fact that so many BTC HODLers have decided to keep large portions of their value in BTC has been a pretty damned widespread and ever increasing set of values that seem to have developed more extensively within BTC HODLers who had been paying quite a bit of attention to the bitcoin space in the past 3-8 years...

Explanation

At this temporal point.. .. hahahahahaha

the next 3 hours and 26 minutes happen to be critical^tm because according to one of our most duly recognized and frequently wrongedly blowing in the wind "analysts" (if that's what he be properly called?), such time duration happens to be within this temporal point.


Go sorcerers that be!!!!!!!!!



 


But why ruin the moods by bringing or mentioning other crap that might have relations with BTC ?

The fact of the matter is that everything in the world is going to have relations with BTC, so why point out specific ones that seem to be mere distractions..

Intended to ruin dee moo?



There's nothing wrong with shaving some profits on the way up, and for sure there can be an insurance rationale behind such shavings - so in fact whether there would have been an "objectively" better way to play it - seems to be somewhat irrelevant because the insurance angle has a bit of intangibility to it... because it is both psychological and financial (but also within the financial angle there is no real easy way to place a price upon the benefit that was gotten from a scenario that may well have ended up not playing out.)...  

Maybe it could be said that so many times, we end up paying more from insurance than any benefit that we get because we never get into any car accidents and our house never burns down.. but we would really be a in an insecure position in the event that we did not carry the insurance on those items.  perhaps?  perhaps?

Edited to add a wee bit:    So, yeah taking out insurance seems to have been what LFC did, which is not unlike what other members do in their managing their BTC holdings.. and each of us may well structure our insurance differently.. and second-judging others some of us might consider one member or another took out too much insurance or not enough or just played the whole insurance angle in ways that defeated the purpose.. by engaging in some kind of trading rather than having a system or even playing BIGGER swings - which would be more in line with the insurance ideas rather than trading ideas......  at the same time, the whole matter could end up playing out in such a way that some members (BTC HODLers) figure out ways to accomplish both.

nice writeup too...

The future is HIGHLY uncertain now, I feel. Maybe descendants might need a good cave instead of cash  .
Athough, unless LFC cashed out mid 7 digits (or even low 8 digits), i don't think you can be 100% sure that it would be enough for the next 40-50 years (if peaceful).. and that is the expected remaining life span for a healthy 35 year old. Not trying to pin it down, just bracketing.

I have nothing but respect for this position.  And it makes crazy good sense.

I have cashed in some of my stack at various times over the years.  And the defense I have for it is pretty simple.

- If it goes up? Well that's the problem I WANT right there.  I still have most of it.
- If it goes down? Well hooray me... My Bitcoin secured some luxury for me.
- I don't live forever.  And I can't take it to my grave.
- Making my kids billionaires will ruin both them AND their children.

I *do* think you are possibly wrong about your cycle thesis.  Even though I support your reasoning behind your hedge.  In fact I think it's a damn good hedge (really... that's my point here).  I could have retired multiple times just in what I lost between 2018-2020 on the only alt coin I own.  It's regained ALL that value in the last year... and will again, I think. And it's my smaller position.  I went through the same pain you did.  But that pain did something really weird to me.  It made me realize that I will be about as happy as I am whether or not I have the money. 

All my joy and all my problems will persist whether I can afford ... well whatever.

And I am naturally frugal.  Got it from my dad, I guess.  I have never NEEDED the money.

That said... looks like I have some relatives who may need to be taken care of.  So you better bet your ass I will make sure that can happen.

That's why I see your position as righteous.  You are not continuing to roll the dice like I am.  At least not on the whole stack.  And there is a chance I pay more for that mistake than you do by avoiding it.  After all... I can lose ALL the value of my position.  Or I could die tomorrow.  And like I said... I am not gambling the whole lot either.  It's paid for some stuff...

But who knows?

How are you today's entry, friends? In my country, I'm quite excited to welcome sweet tea and green prices, which rose slightly this morning by a few percent and made me believe this is a good step in this month we've been waiting for, the bulls will appear, I'm quite optimistic about this, that glory will return even though the queue for btc is so dense that they buy and sell, hehe
there will be a surprising confirmation, when the harvest moment will come, Ath will peak in Q2 this year, cheers

Explanation

retired 2017

the evening wall report

micro to macro...cascades chase, follow and reinforce wave fronts
seem to be observing that here...from 4 hour to daily to weekly
immense amount of 'energy' as i like to think of it, generated from the accumulation period into the compression period looking for the path of least resistance
which i believe is up at this temporal point

dyor

4h



D

stronghands

Yeah, but that's bad. If you got them out cash or in a bank account. I mean if you are not planning to buy some boat / yacht. If 25% is a few BTCiTcoins, even if you eat every day at a restaurant (BTW.. you always get served cheap food that is bought in bulk and lacking nutrients)(if you want real food, go to villages of mountain people, civilized mountain ppl ofc). You need to think long term. Don't let your wife get money for shopping of useless clothes.   

I draw like 10% every year, but I know I will make that back in day trading. Also don't play with your full amount on exchanges, just 10-20% and grow it from there, think of it as 'lost money that you need to recover'.   

Explanation

My sincerest congratulations to you and yours.

Now you have the next 5 years of looking forward to having nightmares of being a wage-slave, and waking up in a cold sweat, realizing "Oh, wow, that was just a dream. I made it."

Cheers, fren.

---

... from Twitter.

That's a bettable proposition for sure.

I bet the odds are less than 50% that you are correct... In other words, I bet the odds are greater than 50% that we reach an ATH before the 2024 halvening.

Now it is a matter of whether you are going to take the other side of the bet.. seems like a 1:1 bet, especially the way you framed it, and I would be glad to take your money.. I have no problem with the amount being small or symbolic.

Even Biodom seems to be more bullish than you, and it seems that he was not really willing to bet past this calendar year .. but he would not actually commit to a bet regarding that matter.


Some day, you are going to have 20x  more bitcoin than you actually need.

 



I gather (or would it be speculate) that such rocketing of BTC's price past $60k (and even $69k) has decent chances of happening (greater than 50%) either this calendar year or soon thereafter.. and will not take as long as 2 years, as he (LFC) seems to be postulating.

... i don't know if you've played it 'perfect', does anyone? but well-played chap

... I don't agree we will have 4 year cycles forever, in fact we may be witnessing what the end of 4 year cycles and the "new normal" secular bitcoin bull looks like this year ... +75% per annum will probably not be denied though if exponential user(monetary) growth is maintained

... note of caution for holding fiat bags ... most likely in a depreciating account (netted for inflation) and under third-party control (banksters greedily eyeing govvy-sanctioned bail-ins) ... get into other assets that hold value that you have control over (privately held stocks, debentures, property, gold, horses, paintings, collectable cars, valuables, etc)

... fiat is for spending, emergency use only now I'm thinking (only what you can afford to lose), like extra jerry cans of fuel stashed in the garden shed, stash some in case but burn it before it goes off

... and we all know you'll come home to bitcoin unit of account profits in the end anyway  

BREAKING: Russian Oil Priced In Bitcoin

... so interesting with all these energy-bitcoin moves coming into play now, if oil/gas majors start earning bitcoin on-site as a by-product it will be only natural for them to accept/demand bitcoin for their main products ... UAE, Saudi, Russia and few of Anglo-US oil majors start dabbling in bitcoin then it's a forgone conclusion after that ... imho

  ... he can handle it LFC is a good stick and goes back aways now, scousers can dish it out and take it!

... and I get that peeps like to diversify into other property/investment/assets at times too, kind of jealous of his timing to be honest

... but he better not be all sold-out-bull fomo proudhorn phase when it rockets past 60k  

Explanation