I agree with everything you said and even your framework - however, there is something not quite correct about an assertion like this:
"spot price has (almost) never dropped below 200WMA, and, instead, has consistently stayed well above it"
technically you are correct, but it seems that each of us should maintain some level of guard regarding both how close BTC spot price has come to (or below) the 200 WMA, and how it might do so in the future.
We can also see from the chart (and link) that you provided that there have been a few times in recent times in which BTC spot prices had either come close to the 200WMA or had gone below. Almost the whole of 2015 was one of those periods, several months between December 2018 and March 2019 was another period, and finally our liquidity event of March 2020 had about two weeks of such closeness (and even 10 days or so below the 200 WMA.
For sure, the 200 WMA seems to be a quite solid way of considering how much of a cushion that any of us are likely to have in terms of how low the BTC price might go, and how long it might stay in such doldrums.. .,. and so in that regard, we likely should be prepared that they BTC price could go that low and could stay that low for a while (such as nearly a year in the 2015 case), and maybe it is not too likely that we are going to get another year like 2015, I surely would not rule it out... even though I agree with you that the 200 WMA is a pretty damned decent grounding regarding both extremes lows and feasibility regarding how long that there might last - in the event that some kind of fatal flaw is not found in Bitcoin - which is seeming less and less likely with the passage of time....
As you may well recall, there are some guys who believe that the 200 WMA is something that a guy could profitably trade off of - and surely, Raja_MBZ is one of those who proclaims to have sold all of his BTC around $55k around May 2021.. and he had been waiting and waiting and waiting to buy back when the spot price meets the 200 WMA.. which seems considerably nutso to a lot of us and it also seems a bit too greedy and even emphasizing BTC's downside rather than UPside... so yeah for some of us guys including you AlcoHoDL who are not trading off the 200 WMA, we can recognize that the 200 WMA represents amongst the low of the lows.. and sure we might not even be waiting that long to buy BTC.. if we were going to be buying on the way down.. but hopefully also we would be somewhat careful selling any BTC between the 100 WMA and the 200 WMA (by the way the 100 WMA is currently just shy of $32k.
Of course, the longer that we are in BTC the more likely we are already to be quite profitable in our BTC, even if we are using the 200WMA and/or the 100WMA as our measures of our BTC portfolio value.. so at some point, we might not give too many shits even if spot price is approaching either of those two values, even though we likely realize that we are much better off to be cashing out some BTC when the BTC spot price is several times higher than either of those two values.... part of the reason why I consider some prudence for guys to take a wee bit of value off the table when we start to get several multiples above the 200WMA.. and especially if we actually do get around a magnitude above the 200WMA (which has happened historically, and it is not clear whether it will continue to happen).. and we need not take a lot of value off the table in order to provide some insurance to our BTC portfolio.
Of course, guys are also free to ride out the waves in BTC price... and just wait before they get above their projected level of FU status before the start shaving off any BTC from their holdings - or if they might have other ways of managing their BTC once getting close to their entry-level FU status or exceeding it.
Next topic. Regarding current spot price: with $44,738 in the past 15 minutes as I type this post, it seems possible that we could be testing and exceeding our current local high of $45,501 (maybe in the coming hours
tm?).. and surely thereafter getting in the $46k to $50k range.. which at that point (if we end up getting there), I am going to have a decent amount of confidence that our current local bottom of $32,951 is in.. I am not quite comfortable to believe that our bottom is in, currently, even though with our ongoing UP price pressures it seems that the odds to be getting pretty damned decent that our bottom is in.
