Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4096. (Read 26711230 times)

I have thought about this for a long time.

If you have no family depending on you and you do not have a partner it is a good idea. Sell the house for $300k buy a small camper van to live in so I am not homeless and travel the country by setting aside 10k by the time I have traveled all states I would probably profited by at least 1.5x.

280k x 1.5 = 420k

that is the minimum i think it rises it probably would be 2x

I could move into a house bigger then I have now for  1-2 years of living in a camper van. I would not need a mortgage and if a short time I would have improved my lifestyle forever

Well, it's certainly beyond most people today since house prices are no longer affordable for the vast majority of the population. Being born at the wrong time and to the wrong parents is a common mistake these days.

This is the way.

Explanation

To all shitcoiners out there, who read WO -- I'm sure there are many:

If you keep logs of your shitcoin buys/sells, and have some spare time, try to calculate your total profits/losses since you got into shitcoins, and compare it with the profits/losses you would have if you had put all your funds into Bitcoin from the very beginning. You could be in for a big surprise!

I just did this for my cousin's shitcoin trading since the beginning of 2017. At that time, he transferred a fiat amount of approx. $6000 to Kraken, and has been trading shitcoins constantly until now -- that is, for 5 years non-stop. Below are the results. Prices/values are approximate and are as I remember them.

Calculation data:

Fiat investment amount: $6000
BTC price at time of investment (01/2017): $1000
BTC price now (01/2022): $38,000

Shitcoin performance (what he did):

Total shitcoins bought/sold: Too many to list!
Total shitcoin stash value now: $15,000
Total profit from 5 years of non-stop shitcoin trading: +150% ($9000)
Total trading volume: > $50 million (Kraken earned more than $100,000 in fees)
Total stress: Extreme. Watching charts 24/7 for 5 years.
Winner: Kraken

Bitcoin performance (what he should have done):

Total BTC bought: $6000 / $1000 = 6 BTC
Total Bitcoin stash value now: 6 BTC x $38,000 = $228,000
Total profit from single Bitcoin transaction after 5 years: +3700% ($222,000)
Total trading volume: $6000 (Kraken would have earned $16 in fees)
Total stress: Low. Casually checking BTC price and enjoying profits.
Winner: Bitcoin HoDLer (as always)!

Conclusion:

Never get into shitcoin trading.
When you're trading, the real winner is the exchange.
Always put your funds into Bitcoin and nothing else.
Do it as soon as you can.
Never sell, unless you must immediately use the fiat for goods/services.
Never sell to simply put fiat in a bank account.
Never worry about dips -- they're just noise.

So simple, yet few understand...

Explanation

@JayJuanGee @ImThour

Fuck the debating lets all agree that we all want to see Bitcoin continue to rise and we all get stinking rich that we have fuck you status

WRONG WAY CHARTBUDDY...

Explanation

Explanation

Explanation

Some On-Chain Data If someone is Interested

Where we are in our bitcoin accumulation journey is likely going to affect the various strategies that we might attempt to employ.

Even though I am a pretty big believer in BTC accumulation strategies that mostly emphasize DCAing, I have no problem when guys figure out various ways to buy on dips and also to lump sum invest (which might employ some combination of strategies of DCA'ing and buying on dips).. .and so even with the buying on dips and lump sum investing I consider them to be ways to supplement DCA'ing strategies - which is likely the best strategy in a lot of cases. 

I am not much of an enthusiast towards the employment of a variety of BTC trading strategies if those are meant to be used to accumulate more BTC, absent if the trader might already have gotten to decently high BTC accumulation levels and/or profitability or that such trader is merely playing around with small portions of his/her BTC portfolio.

In other words, I am a pretty big advocate of attempting to employ more straight-forward means of merely buying BTC and HODL BTC in order to accumulate and preserve capital, and I don't really believe in selling BTC to buy back lower.. because it tends to be too risky and also has a lot of tendencies to not sufficiently emphasizing the preservation of BTC principle - however, once a person may well have gotten to pretty high BTC accumulation and/or profitability levels, I have no problem with selling small amounts on the way up as a means to provide a kind of insurance in case the BTC price falls back down, but those strategies emphasize a kind of insurance aspect rather than a primary means to accumulate more BTC...

By the way, another thing to consider once accumulating a good amount of BTC is just how much BTC to sell at various points on the way up.. There is a good thread about considering how to possibly skim off profits (referred to as raking).. which might be helpful for some members who want to consider how to think through and plan to establish their own mindset in the direction of when to sell, how much to sell and why to sell.

(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

Another irritating angle can be when guys are seeming to talk their book rather than really attempting to be objective and to reasonably assess where they believe that the BTC price might go (of course this is more of a problem in terms of short term predictions).  Sure, there can be some tendencies for any of us to talk a bit of our book, especially a lot of us are investing in BTC for a long time, so we have some tendencies to be biased towards the BTC price going up by the fact that we own a lot of BTC so our networth goes up more when the BTC price goes up as compared to when the BTC price goes down. 

So, sure there can be some differences of opinion regard bitcoin's price direction, especially in the short-to-medium term - but also questions regarding how objective any of us might be in making our assessments of short-to-medium term BTC price dynamics..

I do believe that a lot of nocoiners, under invested in BTC folks, bitcoin naysayers and shitcoin pumpeners do readily like to accuse BTC HODLers as being biased by their BTC holdings.. sure there could be some amount of truth in some of that, but many times, those tend to be fallacious kinds of claims and frequently many of us bitcoin HODLers will consider that some of the BTC critiques do not own enough BTC which causes them to be biased in terms of not understanding BTC rather than that they are more objective because they are insufficiently invested in BTC. 

Explanation

Even though it did seem to end up working out pretty well for Elwar, I had thought that it was a bit of a step too far (at least for how I was considering the whole bitcoin matter at the time, and surely, I had already been pretty heavily investing into BTC in 2014 and even a bit more than I wanted in 2015, so by the time 2016 came, I was not really feeling like doing any large sum injections into BTC but instead sticking with more modest means of employing ongoing DCA type accumulations of BTC.. rather than adding high amounts of lump sums).. but of course, none of us know the exact circumstances of other people including their finances and they psychology.. and even in this case some particulars that he may well have been weighing regarding his then location, and it did seem that Elwar had gotten into a mode (at that time) that he was working on being more mobile anyhow, so sometimes there might not be any kind of reason to stay in one place merely for owning a home there.. and surely, circumstances of job and family could vary from person to person, too.

Understood, thanks.

A little bit of sarcasm doesn't help I guess. Also, I am also bullish for the long term, there is no problem trying to predict/guess a good buying spot in short term. Won't hurt anyone.

If I had an "extra" house, I could have sold it in 2016 too as I was trying to invest as much as I could (within some strict limits), but selling the house where I live-you have to be a bit more adventurous-like the Taihuttu dude (he sold the house when btc was $900, became a nomad with his whole family).

In any case, selling a live-in house to try to gain a bit of leverage is probably beyond most people. I have seen a couple reports like this, but usually it was a second house or a house that was inherited.

I don’t know if the Fillipponeing will happen, but for sure it will be a fun race!

If course I know El dude has some ace up his sleeve… some trick he’s best known for!
But I will keeping feeding him the deserved merits, don’t worry!

I don't know how you would presume early?

We have had nearly three months of down.. and for sure at some point it is going to need to stop, whether we see some kind of traditional reversal or something more whimpy.  That $33k that you mention represents a bit over a 52% correction.. that has been followed by an earlier 56% correction.. so that surely seems like enough down for me, and I see no reason that we need to have any kind of capitulation in order for the momentum to resume UPpity... sure anything can happen, but we do not have to have "down before up."

In other words, there does not have to be capitulation for the bottom to be "in" - even though some peeps do appreciate a more clear sign that the bottom is "in" but that is NOT always how price dynamics play out in bitcoinlandia.


I am pretty sure that Elwar sold his house around the summer of 2016 . or it was some kind of similar event in which Elwar finalized the house deal and bought the bitcoin in something like the $600s., and then the bitcoin price dropped for about 6 months  (around that time there was an issue involving the Bitfinex exchange that caused the BTC price to linger for several months.. before recovering) which contributed to Elwar looking like a fool for about 6 months.. .since he bought the bitcoin that were a product to his house sale proceeds.. right before the Bitfinex "hackening" or whatever it was?).. and then thereafter he looked like a genius because the BTC price recovered way beyond his purchase price.. especially once we got into 2017.. and really the lowest dip that we had was around $800 in early 2017.. before getting into the $2k to $3k price territory and we know the rest of what happened in 2017.

Explanation

Your response shows both your hostility and your ongoing desire to underappreciate bitcoin's historical bullish performance that is likely continuing into the future.


I see a so far correction 52% that comes since our November 9 (nearly three months ago ATH).... so sure a question is whether the correction is over or if it is going to continue.  I doubt that you can get very caught up on attempt to apply technical analysis to bitcoin as if it were some kind of mature asset and ignore that there likely continues to be a considerable amount of ongoing upwards price pressures... sure it could be over for our lillie fiend, and we go into a bear trend from here, but surely far from any kind of certainty.. especially since we had already had a 56% correction in May/June/July.. so we are in a bit of a weird place.. and even weirder if you want to presume the UPPity run to be over based on current facts in front of us and given a bit of the longer couple years of context in which we are in.... but hey.. seen it many times in which guys want to presume going into a beartrend before getting there... and for sure guys get tricked out of coins in such circumstances, and other guys will profit because the trend ends up being down.. so sure it is better to be ahead of the trade.. but which way is it going to go... ?   For sure, I am not presuming down.. but you can do what you like.


You do have a decent point about abilities to get above certain price thresholds to likely be helpful to confirm that a reversal of the down momentum has taken place... even though you do seem to be leaning towards believing that down is more likely than up...


$47,989 has been the so far high for 2022, if we look at the daily candle on the 1st, so $40k would not have been applicable as a high for the year because we already had close to $48k.  So it is possible to have said that the top of the year will be $47,989 in order to suggest that the top is in, and surely there are quite a few guys who would have voted for that option even if $50k were to be the next lowest option available in the poll.