that's my state, when we dump into mindrust territory every 4 years
we would need to go under 39k this year for me to get stressed bigly
I think mine would be more like sub $25K, but only really based on the "where is this going" and "how long is this massive trading zone going to actually last for", also think it's pretty damn unlikely tbf.
If it weren't for reducing some exposure at the start of the year then I think it'd be the similar if we returned to around $40K... but then again this would be at the 200 Week MA at this point so would be a great long-term buying opportunity as long as you have the dry powder available. Obviously if you don't, then I get how this would be stressful, and I'd feel stressed or frustrated if didn't have enough fiat available for that.
Starting to realise this is the first time in six years I've been more chill about the market overall, sometimes not being 99% exposed is a nice feeling lol. If price reached $100K rather than say $40K next then I can imagine the feelings of greed would kick in with me thinking "why I am not 99% exposed like usual", but I think after a cycle or two you get over this need to have the maximum gain/risk possible.
As for current price, despite the lower highs and lower lows, the current channel over past 6 months looks very stable, even if naturally it's a downtrend, it's super orderly. Kind of reminds me of the $25K to $30K consolidation that also took 6 months before price doubled in value. This could just take another test of the lower bound of support around $50K before popping off higher (assuming we re-test support again for like the 4th time after getting rejected for a 3rd time, ie carry on with same as usual with the current ping-pong between support and resistance). The potential black swan / capitulation event looks more like it'd be around $43K now rather than $30K, given in a week price would have completed 6 months of consolidation, which is looking more and more bullish every month that passes. The main reason being the 200 WMA has moved up from $32K to $40K now, so while the potential for this to act as support remains the same, the support price is now considerably higher than it was 6 months ago.
If anything a return to $30K would more likely signal a much longer-term consolidation (between ~$30K and ~$60K), which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing even if not immediately bullish. Generally I think this is no time to be sitting on the sidelines with high potential for further upside by the end of the year, but also not necessarily the time to be "all in" at current prices like it was in September/October 2020 when it looked like price was going to explode to the upside before it predictably did. Chances are those of don't have enough coin will load up in the low 50s as they have been for months already, while those who aren't in need of more coins will take average in the low 40s, just because of the low risk / high reward possibilities long-term. If you have more of a 10-year outlook, rather than say 4-year, then maybe you'd be waiting for low 30s instead.
