Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4175. (Read 26713639 times)

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If you got $1 every time you wrote the word "never" on this forum, you would already be a millionaire.


Do you ever feel embarrassed by the lies you have been posting on the forum for years?

Explanation

I doubt that any of us know short-to-medium term BTC price directions with any levels of high confidence, and the last time that I had attempted to go through this process was on December 16, and really on December 16, I did not spend too much time attempting to flesh out down scenarios, as billy nocoiner is arguing that there is a kind of inevitability in some short-to-medium term down scenarios that I consider to be quite unlikely, especially when he was referring to sub $10k nonsense (when the 208-week moving average is nearly at $20k so even the sub $20k ship seems to have sailed).  

Sure, maybe I should spend a bit more time fleshing out some of the DOWNity scenarios - even though I consider UPpity to have wee bit better odds.

By the way, I have not even contemplated that my December 16 projections have changed very much in the past month, even though we have had quite a bit of stagnation and even tests of 39% correction arena and 41% correction arena (so far), and back on December 16, I had placed about 55% odds that we would be seeing higher than $69k prices in the coming year... which I would be hard-pressed to assert that any kinds of subsequent events would have so far caused those assignments of probabilities to have changed much if anything.. maybe a couple percentage points at most.. perhaps?

.... and even asserting BTC prices to have good odds of supra $69k would likely keep a framework of remaining part of this same cycle that we are already in (but it's likely that the Upside of this particular cycle has just not finished yet)... but of course, depending on how the BTC price plays out, the way of framing the whole matter might need to be changed, too.

For sure guys are going to have studied the idea of both BTC price timeline and height of the BTC price cycle probabilities with varying levels of intensity, and I would not even be proclaiming that my numbers are any stronger than the numbers of anyone else - except that so many other people do not even attempt to assign any kind of gradience to a variety of scenarios that they might contemplate, but instead so many people seem to be inclined to talk in terms of absolutes - just like it is aggravating to hear billy nocoiner present his nonsense in absolutes when he is describing a set of scenarios that seems highly unlikely.  

Sure, we might be more agreeable to someone who speaks in absolutes about some kind of BTC price scenario that we consider to be more probable, but I still will proclaim that it remains problematic for any of us to be assigning high probabilities to any scenarios even if we might be coming to reasonable conclusions regarding how we arrived at our contemplated scenarios that we believe to be amongst the most likely out of a batch of scenarios that we might have in our heads.. and sure, I may well even be criticizing some folks who draw squiggly lines on charts to be expressing way too much impressions of certainty in their projections, unless they are hypothesizing some kind of a range that projects forward.  

PlanB got himself into a similar pickle when he was asserting $98k and $135k to be BTC bottom prices for November and December respectively, so even if we might have agreed with him and assigned high probabilities to PlanB's floor projections (as he did), we would have looked pretty foolish to be making such strong assertions when subsequent BTC price performance (and not even seeming to be too crazy of outcomes) seems to have shown that those BTC bottom price scenarios that he had described in somewhat certain ways had no where near any kind of strong likelihood of happening (in part, because they did not end up happening and nothing even weird took place in bitcoinlandia merely through neither of the price floor targets even having had happened).  

Sure some BTC price movements or the passage of time could cause some further need to rethink the assignment of probabilities to ideas about future BTC prices.  

I am still thinking that my December 16 numbers are close enough, but maybe at some point, I will start to think that I need to change them or the passage of time or the actual movement of the BTC price has caused me some kind of feeling that I need to change my assignment of probabilities...  

I speculate that we all do this kind of assignment of probabilities kind of a thing even if we might not be good at articulating it, and even if maybe some people are more wiffle waffly about their convictions regarding what kind of BTC price movement is going to shake them from their beliefs of where they believe that the BTC price is going... and merely having high conviction or even assigning a high probability to one set of happenings as compared to another set of happenings does not necessarily mean that path will end up following, and even a higher probability set of BTC price movements might not even necessarily end up being wrong (at the time that it was made) merely because it turns out to be wrong because some lower level probability set of events ends up playing out.  

I personally believe that it can be helpful to go through the exercise of assigning probabilities to both BTC price and to time if you believe that you can do it, but surely it can take some time to actually come up with some numbers that you believe are sufficiently strong in your own way of seeing the BTC price dynamics.

Even though I have been involved in bitcoin for a little longer than 8 years, there have ONLY been a few times where I had actually gone through some kinds of writing out the assignment of probabilities that I believe to be likely to various price possibilities, and only in the past 6 months or so have I been attempting to combine the assignment of timeline expectations and BTC price expectations (and so far, I have largely ONLY done my predictions in regards to UP without really going through any extended efforts in fleshing my ideas in regards to going down.. in part because I still consider down to be less likely so why spend time fleshing it out (of course, I could end up being wrong and then needing to more urgently go through a process of fleshing out down..like billy nocoiner the dweeb has done to come up with his sub $10k vision.. that dweeb)..


Hahahahahah

I doubt that it is ONLY a matter of which price is closer.... but hey, if you want to play some mental variation of the which one is closer game, then so be it.

Seems to me that $62k is very close to $92k, but pretty far from $10k.. but we have to get to $62k before it even becomes an issue.  and before getting to $62k, we likely have to get through the $52k to $53k arena.. and gosh, don't we almost have to go up another $10k, just to get to $53k...


 

Oh my!!!

Oh my!!!

 

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While $69k is closer to $80k than $10k ever was 

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All your fundamental thinking is oke but my personal obserbesion $69k is the last price in this trend, i'm not be sure but hold to see the next higher price on Bitcoin, because of that bitcoin is the king of the wolrd I hope bitcoin never dropped.

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$80,000 in 2025? You're joking, right? Bitcoin will never make it close to $80,000.

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xhomerx10

They did go.

home 🏠

btw I was rooting for them not against them.

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2 words,
 Go Steelers!!

Explanation

In around July, when our BTC price were around $30k, you told us the top was already in at $64,895 in April, and we know what happened thereafter, the price went to $69k in November, but it took between August and November to get to that level.... so sure, now that our BTC price came back down to $43k-ish and we had a dip down to $39,559 about a week ago, you are feeling some hopium in your DOWNity dreams that likely has less than a snowball's chance in hell of even coming close to something within even any kind of striking distance of that $10k or sub $10k wishes..

Even if giving you a 2x advantage in getting down to something close to $10k from our most recent local bottom of $39,559, you have really high odds of being the opposite of koreck.. ever.. in other words, that ship has sailed and you may well be lucky to ever witness BTC prices below $30k, ever again.. Sure you can wish.. sure you can.  

It's quite likely that many members here would be willing to bet you on a variety of your wished-for DOWNity scenarios that you likely do not even believe yourself...except your handlers are helping you to propose your wished-for targets.  Your odds of losing any such bet would be pretty damned closed to 100% if you were to stand behind any kind of proposition that even approximates what you have been asserting to be BTC prices going forward..  For sure, any bet would need to be escrowed, because you hardly seem to be anyone to count on to pay up.   

That little T-Rex must be a bitcoiner.

(source: a little book called "Dinosaur Therapy" which I was just flicking through before bed)

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