Eeek...
Tradingwise still up for a long ?
Tradingwise is all over the place in terms of timelines, so not really easy to play those waves with any kind of reliability, but I do get what you are saying that it seems that bets should be long when we are within a kind of 35% correction arena.. but who knows? who knows?
If you already have a lot of bitcoin, then it might not really matter too much, if you have a decent stash and you are still DCA'ing you might not care too much (except feeling that you might be getting some bargains currently), if you are buying the dip, it feels good in terms of probabilities, but again, who knows for sure. Of course if you do not have any coins or if you are decently under-exposed to BTC, then it should seem that these prices are good places to stock up decently well, even if we might have more corrections from here.. and surely a 4-10 year timeline or more should seem that this is a good buying place, too.
Another way of thinking about if we are talking about longer term view and even medium term view then we should be able to appreciate that we have had quite a bit of ongoing up... ... Again shorter term would likely be more ambiguous, unless we are talking about the doldrums that we seemed to have had been in May/June and July, so from those lower $30ks and even dipping into upper $20ks on a few occasions in May/June/July, we had our more than 2x, if we look from $30k to $69k and then back down to $46.5k-ish we still have 1.5x-ish UP, and even if we look down to our lowest correction to $41,967, we will had 1.4x UP from the $30k-ish.... so even with some of the mediocre framings of our level of UP from $30k-ish in July 2021, we still should be able to appreciate that our odds for going UP from here are not bad at all.. I am thinking well into the 50%s. probably supra 55%.. but that also depends on how framing the numbers and the timeline too.. in spite some of the pessimism we have been recently hearing regarding which direction some folks consider that we might be going short to medium term..
There are a few locations that folks can end up getting reckt, and sure one of them is selling too much on the way up.. but another one is either selling on the way down (after already having had a 39% correction) and/or failing refusing to buy on a decent dip, such as this.. Of course, you do not get reckt as badly if you just HODL or just ongoingly DCA, so one of the dilemmas about buying on the dip remains the questions about whether we are dipping more.. and we know king daddy is not against surprising even though most loyal of HODLers.. hahahahaha. ...
causing me to frequently assert that DCA is way the hell more superior to buying the dip, even though some buying the dip can supplement DCA so long as you keep on DCAing.
Sure, who's to say if we might not be revisiting either the lower $30ks or even dipping into the $20ks - yet several of us seem to have decently optimistic senses that the coming several months or perhaps even expanding into 2-3 quarters have good chances for resuming up, and really matters would seem to play out weirdly if $69k were to end up serving as our top for this period/cycle .. and no one here would be poo-pooing the exponential nature of the about 6.5x price rise from September 2020 to April 2021
(even though it is quite a bit smaller than earlier exponential price rise periods in bitcoinlandia), but we have so far had two decently large corrections from that.. and sure there are bearwhales who would like to foil additional toppenings from happening... but what are the odds? What are the odds?
I am actually kind of wishing that some entities that are not sufficiently covering their exposure to bitcoin by engaging in some kinds of fractional reserve practices (meaning that they are not holding as much bitcoin as they are betting against it.. and yeah maybe it is not the entities not holding the bitcoin but their empowering of their clients to use dollars to bet against bitcoin without anyone buying any bitcoin), I hope that they get reckt as fuck.. and it seems that their practices in that regard does give them a lot of exposure to bitcoin moving up... which would reck them because they are betting against such UP - even if it seems that they have infinite supplies of cash to spend in those kinds of practices..
Will they get reckt, as they deserve, is a kind of related question, and I am hoping that I am not the one in the fantasy looking forward to them getting reckt if it were to not end up happening..
We will see.. we will see... I still say that the next 1-9 months are critical
tm.
Edited (about 3 hours after original post): cleared up some phraseology and added a few supplement ideas therein.
