Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4264. (Read 26714784 times)

Not everybody was too bullish.

Not our favorite characters:

Explanation

One little topical hopium salve for today?



A previous fractal on a larger scale?

To be fair, anyone wanting to post about COVID19 related matters in this thread, is welcome to be redirected to my holding thread in Off-Topic.

The "No Hat? Fuck Off" is one layer of protection to reduce noise.

As long as the post is not completely retarded, I'll consider it on its own merits, if made in good faith.

I want to help keep this thread clean. Recognize this requires a degree of flexibility on my part, with regard to moderating COVID19 material.

Memes and low-effort posts are deleted on-sight from non-hatters.

Bring the science, or fuck off.

Explanation

Bit in bold - I definitely agree with this.  I have posted about it a number of times, e.g. here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/comparing-bitcoin-halvings-2012-to-2020-and-now-looking-ahead-to-2024-5375808 - if you consider that the vast majority of he total supply has already been mined (90% right now) then the quantity of bitcoin that will be influenced by each halving becomes vanishingly small: this epoch started with 88% already mined and only ~6% will be mined in the epoch, i.e. before the next halving in c. 2024.  The next halving the numbers are 94% and 3%.

I've been playing around with a good way to visualise this, and this is the best I have come up with so far, each band shows the percentage of the total supply issued in each epoch, orange at the bottom is the 50% issued from Genesis to the first halving, green at the top is what will be issued in the next epoch, etc.. Everything below the blue band is already mined, and we are maybe a third into the blue band:



 

Explanation

of course many rich peopel think this way.

So there is a ton of hand wringing out there on the various talk holes.

We were all wrong about out predictions!!!   OMG!



All of this angst is driven by the fact that We are talking about predictions tied to an arbitrary date.  This always irritates me a little.  The human tendency to group things into calendar years.

I DO think that Bitcoin might be following one sort of prediction that I have frequently cited (not my fav, but that is entirely driven bny what is in my bags).  The idea of diminishing returns over time...  dragonvslinux  mentions it just a few posts up.  The idea that as the asset matures the returns will diminish.  Also DavetheWave's position.  And that theory will have won him a substantial bet with PlanB in a few days.

I personally STILL think we have at least a minor "S Curve" event in our future.  There just has to be a moment when the masses begin to realize that Bitcoin is not going away and people start piling in.  It's like the see-saw tipping point.  a 'gradually, then suddenly' event.

And if I have EVER suggested this would happen before the end of a calendar year I want to be BAT SLAPPED.

I even think the time will eventually come where the "Bitcoin 4 year cycle" falls away.  I have wondered if we would see it this cycle, begin to change.  And I think the jury i s still out on that one.  And there are several ways that could begin to happen... including a big double (or triple?)  set of peaks during THIS cycle, or perhaps a bull run INTO the next halving.

I just think tying things to year end is silly.  Well, except for the fact that people DO THAT which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.  As well as various fiscal year motivators, like selling or buying before the end of a tax year.  

Anyway.  I remain bullish.  And I think there is a significant chance we have not seen the end of Bitcoin's rise.  After all it does not care one whit what year it is.  It only cares that the next block is a ridiculously small random number.

But is it 25% worse without 25% bitcoin? 

Explanation

"Don't Look Up" - look it up on Netflix, best movie since Idiocracy IMO. Made well enough so that anyone can think "nah, I'm not that stupid, this is about all those other people". Bitcoin gets honorable mention too.

https://www.netflix.com/title/81252357

I am pretty sure, you are as welcome as other men without hats (as long as you master the safety dance) as Bob stated some time ago:



So you're probably not gonna fail on the non-hatter but on the substantive part.

And watch this gif
https://c.tenor.com/ojhtqKXuthMAAAAC/santa-saylor.gif

Come on corn

Keep up the x-mass spirit

Oh of course: No one gets out of this game alive :-) But as a thought experiment I'm finding it to be fun to figure out how you can have maximum in-your-pocket funds while paying a minimum in taxes legally and completely by all the rules.

Maybe this is how rich people think....

i just figure im fucked no matter what. so meh.

Explanation

For most hodlers I imagine. Better than losing 50%+ of fiat value at least  


Personally I find it fits perfectly into the smoothing of tops adoption/maturation theory, based on Bitcoin's price history. That of declining highs based on % gain, increased volume, declining volatility, increased adoption, etc. I just stick to the current growth curve, no need to over-complicate things imo with any theoretical supply shock models or otherwise.

Therefore for Q1 high would be around $150K, Q2 $175K or Q3 $200K. I'm never a fan of the "this year will be different theory", when for the past 10 years Bitcoin has formed and remained within a pretty clear-cut logarithmic adoption curve, until there's any evidence to suggest breaking a decade long trend. Depending on how you look at it, from peak to peak the growth declined considerably from ~35,000% to around 1,500%, so the % rise declined enoromously by 95%. So for example another decline of even just 50% would only be a rise of around 750%, which would put a top around the $175K mark.

For sure we could see a wick above or below this curve, like in March 2020 when price went 50% below the lower band, but it would take a black-swan event for that to happen imo, as opposed to the usual up-trend that occurs. So I do see the argument and possibility for reaching some $250K level or higher, but it wouldn't be typical of Bitcoin's price movements based on it's entire history.



Otherwise the target of $1 million sometime after Q3 2026 I find pretty realistic, as well the completion of adoption by 2030 at a $5 million BTC (where the upper and lower bands of the adoption curve cross over, and therefore the model becomes invalidated by default). With a $100 trillion market cap, it'd also be hard to argue that a $5 million Bitcoin price wouldn't make most fiat currencies redundant by then. 9 years from now also seems like a realistic time-frame personally, given how far Bitcoin has come in the past 10 years. This growth is also very similar to S2F, just with a little less pseudo-science




It's not that it's my favourite scenario, but simply the most likely now there has been a clear enough trend of lows and highs established over 3 peaks and 3 lows. It's true I wouldn't be a fan of Bitcoin abandoning an adoption curve and forming a speculative marco-bubble (that so far hasn't happened fortunately), which only pops and leads to eventually returning to the adoption curve, taking maybe a decade or so to consolidate, even if entirely possible. As leaving this adoption curve to the upside would certainly open the doors to leaving it to the downside too.... meaning 10 years of adoption down the drain.

I realise the adoption curve might seem "whimpy" to you, because ultimately is typified by continuing to produce declining % gains, but personally I think a 750% rise from peak to peak is more than satisfactory, as well as a 20x within around 5 years, or even 100x within 10 years. I also think sustainable adoption will win the race faster than a speculative bubble that would likely take many years to recover from, not just the usual mini-boom and mini-bust that are nothing more than Bitcoin's bull markets and bear markets on smaller scales. The Tortoise and the Hare comes to mind here, that of slow and steady wins the race.