Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4296. (Read 26713739 times)

Of course, I am very proud of myself and the kind of system that I have continued to practice and to kind of tweak along the way with learnings along the way, and I doubt that the amounts are as important as figuring out the percentages including attempting exercise quite a bit of discretion to tailor to your own finances and emotions. 

Of course, from your disclosure, I can see that your spreads are smaller than mine, but I cannot really tell about how much of your total holdings you are playing with... On a ballpark basis, I am thinking that in 2016/2017 when I was newer to the practice, I was selling around 1.5% of my total value for every 10% the BTC price went up.. and currently, I am thinking that I may be selling 0.5% of my total value for every 10% the BTC price goes up.. Either one of those is completely sustainable forever Laura.. but surely selling a smaller percentage does tend to emphasize HODLing and less playing around.. and surely, I could easily increase the percentage on a short term basis merely to extract some extra value.. whichI have done from time to time, and maybe I am kind of contemplating if I need to do anything like that..even though my current 0.5% ends up adding up to way more dollar values than it did in 2016/2017, and you can imagine too, right?  If we ballpark speculate that the BTC price went up around 50x to 100x since 2016/2017 - using a ballpark value of $500 to $1k versus our current BTC price of around $50k, so then even the use of 1/3 the previous percentage would still result in about 17x to 33x more value in terms of the actual substantive amounts.

My recollection of when I started in around late 2015 (when BTC prices were ONLY $250-ish), my spreads were very small in terms of percentage but also it seems to me that by the time we got to late 2016 and even into parts of 2017, I was likely selling a higher percentage of my stash too.. so maybe my sellings ended up being sometimes bordering on 1.5% of my stash for every 10% that the BTC price went up... ..so I had to jigger and jigger.. and both my spreads were smaller back then (even in terms of percentages) and my intervals between orders were smaller too.. so I was able to get a lot of practice, but really not a whole hell of a lot of profits (even though I felt that it was largely serving my psychological and financial purposes).  I am thinking that my spreads might not have been much higher than 7% or so, and my intervals were probably around 1% or so.

These days with about a $7k to $8k spread, that's around 15%, but still my intervals of only $1k is only in the ball park of 2%, even though at one point I had barely reached into $2,500 and even $3,333 intervals.. so it seems that if we return to supra $69k at some point I will cross back over into $2,500 and $3,333 intervals.. and sometimes there are just too many balancing and rebalancing that have to take place based on other things that I am trying to get out of my moving around of values in terms of BTC/fiat values..

So of course if the actual values go up and the spreads go up then the profits from each trade will go up too, but they are executing way less frequently... less practice... your spreads of around 6%-ish do seem closer to what mine were in 2017-ish... and they are still not bad. they could be smaller if you want more practice and action or they could be larger if you want less practice and more profits per trade.. but also greater possibility that they will never get filled.. if the price goes up and leaves all your orders behind.. which happens quite bit in bitcoinlandia.. as we know.

And sometimes I am playing around with rebalancing, and in my current situation, I still have not completely gotten rebalanced from my BinanceUS dip that had happened a couple of months ago.. even though BTC prices still went down to fill all of the Buy orders that would have filled anyhow.. but I still did have some ups and downs in there that I was attempting to balance out, and I suppose the non-playing out of my little side bet (on the margins) that we would get through $55k to $80k without much effort had caused me to have put off getting my portfolio back in balance because in part I was expecting some of the rebalancing to happen as a result of the noman's land theory playing out.. and it did not ...

It is not any kind of BIG deal to me because like I mentioned my bet is on the margins which largely means that I I am not tweaking my practice in any kind of major or meaningful way based on such vision, but maybe changing the order sizes by 5% to 20% or whatever I might be feeling at the moment to play around with some extra little funzies... so instead of selling $100, I sell $105 or $110 or $120... until it all balances out.. but sometimes, if there might be some kind of feeling of urgency after a mistake like the one that happened on BinanceUS, I might want to get rebalanced in a very quick manner.. so I might double or triple the size of my sell orders in order to get back into a balanced status more quickly based on my speculation that the BTC price is toping.. and in the current situation, I am speculating that the odds are NOT that the BTC price is topping.. and it is a fair bet.. maybe I am right and maybe not.. and hopefully the changes to the size of my orders is not so much that I cause it to bother me psychologically or financially if I happen to end up wrong.

Debt is risk and obligation. How much that is acceptable will depend on your personal viewpoint. However, many people do not treat it this way and then get all surprised when things go wrong.

This doesn't apply if you're a large corporation, of course. In that case the government just bails you out.


Debt also accumulates. So that's 100k on top of your original payment. Now, you may be expecting Bitcoin to appreciate to more than offset that in the intervening years but so also goes the thought processes of the gambler who is just needs to borrow 200 to put on an accumulator and pay of what he owes so that "Jimmy the hammer" won't remove his kneecaps.

Debt is also fungible. If you have a large quantity of Bitcoin and borrow to buy something frivolous, consider whether you would have borrowed that money to buy Bitcoin. No? Well, you may as well have.

I will at this point state explicitly that I am not anybody's mother and they can handle their finanaces how they please. I am just giving my angle on the matter.

Explanation

Well, he does still have a substantial quantity left by current standards and he hasn't gone full fiat like a certain person occasionally known by 'AA' did so he's still good. I wouldn't get too caught up in the percentages as 25% of X is only 12.5% of 2X and so on. The question is "should they be happy with what they still have?" which can only be answered on a personal level. Bear in mind also that they may have placed themselves in a better position to continue to accumulate bitcoin which, while slightly weaker overall, may be well worth it for the improvement of quality of life.

For me, to focus on that information that they are still in debt provides some justification that they had resolved some of the other complications in their finances..  and even may have justified cashing out 3-6 times more than I would have considered reasonable under current BTC and macro circumstances.


If you have access to debt instruments you should attempt to use those to the extent reasonable.... of course, there may well be reasons to not use it.. but surely debt remains great leveraging to get you to places that you would not be able to get to without such access... and for sure you are put at a relative disadvantage if everyone else is using it and you are not.  Don't get me wrong.. I am not referring to the use of debt to buy additional depreciating items or to overleverage yourself with that kinds of nonsense; however, if you were going to buy that shit anyhow with part of your BTC stash.. let's say you want to get a Lamborghini.. for sure an unnecessary depreciating asset, and you are going ot get it no matter how you finance it.. whether bitcoins or through some kind of a loan... So in this hypothetical, you have BTC stash of about 100 BTC, and the Lamborghini is going to cost you about 12 BTC.. so you have enough of a budget to be able to afford a Lambo because it would ONLY be costing you around 12% of your total stash..  I am not asserting that buying a 12 BTC Lambo would be smart for someone with a 100 BTC stash, but the use of 12% in frivolity is not really outrageous or anything like that as compared with some people who might not even have 12 BTC (or the equivalent in networth) or maybe they barely have that amount, and they leverage their future cashflow or networth on depreciating assets.

Instead of buying the Lambo outright with the 12 BTC, you qualify for finances and you get finances for the $600k-ish that involves about a 6% interest rate (sure maybe kind of high for the interest rate, but not outrageous or unreasonable given the depreciating angle of financing a Lambo)..

So for the next 5 years, you pay off your 6% interest and your capital and your Lamborghini is likely to depreciate by quite a bit.. perhaps less than half?  Maybe?.. but in this hypothetical you had already decided that  you were going to purchase the Lambo anyhow. Now a question might come to play about whether you feel better having full title to the Lamborghini or if you do not mind having a lien holder.. so that's a personal choice that could sway you not to want to get a loan.  

By the way, I did a quickie approximation in my spreadsheet to find that payments for such Lambo would be around $11,500 per month to pay off such $600k-ish loan in 5 years and the payoff amount would reach around $692k after the interest is calculated into the payoff amount.

Explanation

Good day  

Watching Bitfinex BTCUSD chart, i just realized we're back to the trading volume of 2017-ish levels.
So it's starting all over again? Transaction volume growth wise?

Of course, the more hodlers, the less overall volume. More hodling would not be a bad thing for Bitcoin, right?
Active trading, as it seems, was happening mostly in and around China?

Not that i wouldn't embrace it, but what does this volume decrease tell us about the current market situation?

Your orders are probably much bigger than mine, though. 49k hit today, so my next sell is 50k and next buy 46k.

From my understanding if you want to be able to borrow money (for a car, house) in the US, you need to get in debt every month on your cards, then pay them off. To prove you're a good creditor.

Meanwhile here in France the concept of a credit card barely exists, most are debit. President Sarkozy wanted to help his buddies in the banking/finance sector and make them easier to get, but the 2008-2009 crisis happened and he didn't go on with the plan.

Well the Bitfinex token was issued around August 2016 and redeemed around April 2017... In essence, that was a relatively amazing kind of "innovation".. even though of course there were surely some scammy aspects to the whole situation.. but it did end up getting fully redeemed.. and way faster than anyone had even imagined.

In around August 2016, when the exchange first went down and they reported that there were something like 119k bitcoins (and other cryptos and cash too I believe) that were no longer in their possession, there were quite a few folks (even previously bitcoin bullish folks) who were asserting that bitcoin is dead for sure this time.  If you recall the BTC price had just bounced into a kind of recovery stage from more than 6 months stuck in the $350 to $450 range in late 2015 and early 2016, so it had bounced up to mid-to-upper $700s, and then the Bitfinex hack brought BTC prices crashing down to $500 and many folks entering into shorts etc etc and really bad-mouthing the whole matter including asserting that Bitfinex had done an exit scam, they were never coming back on line, and gosh some rekt shorts in that time..and so many times there is really palpable feelings that there is no way that bitcoin's price can go up, and matters get resolved or just some users end up suffering whatever loss and bitcoin moves on..

Of course every time while going through it, there is a kind of feeling that recovery is not possible and probable.. so how should we feel about these times?  This time for sure bitcoin is not going to get back above $55k nor into the new noman's land of  supra $62k etc etc.. and whatever, to me it just seems that the various negative feelings about the BTC price and that we supposedly could perhaps maybe be entering into a bear market because stock to flow is underperforming expectations blah blah blah.. comes off as pretty weak-ass reasons to be negative on king daddy.. but hey folks going to negative.. and let them do it.

Just think about the GOX coins soon to be released.. people speculate that might put selling pressures on BTC.. right?      Yeah.. we might not quite be ready for UP yet.. but I would be careful in regards to waiting for very much more downity from here... even though you never know.. you never know.


Regarding keeping some keys in a bank vault.. I really do not have any problem with that, so long as the whole thing is not self contained... so of course, that would potentially be a problem with having a hardware wallet in a bank vault because many of them can be hacked into once in the physical possession of someone with abilities.  As far as keeping back up keys or even instructions for after your death,  I cannot justify keeping the whole thing there.. so either it is some of the keys or the instructions ONLY show some keys in x location and other keys in y location. or some variation.  I surely am not going to say that I have any perfect kind of system either because sometimes it can be difficult to give some of the instructions to someone who is currently alive in a way that they know what it is, and if they don't know what it is, then there is a risk that when the read it upon you death or whatever, then they might screw it up.  Perhaps?  Oh does a lawyer or an accountant have instructions that s/he does not know about until opening an envelope upon your death?

Another thing would be having a couple of locations.. so of course the bank could burn down or some other disaster.. so yeah each location should have complete abilities to recover once having all 2 or 3 parts or however many parts that are divided.. so for sure, there are risks with multiple locations.. and let's say that the bank burns down and something else happens simultaneously.. hopefully there is enough separation that recovery can happen.. and yeah sure I am not even proclaiming that these locations or systems might not need to be revised from time to time, too.... or let's say that it is not necessarily clear what the thing in the envelop or on the paper is, so there are instructions or someone in real life (maybe more than one) knows what some instructions mean, but they might not have all of the parts either.  We should not make these matters too complicated, either.. I can imagine some people getting locked out of their own funds or even some successor or beneficiary not being about to figure out the puzzle or even knowing what it is.. so they sell it or throw it away or even file it away without realizing what it is.  Again.  I son't have all of this figured out either for the "vast majority of my stash."

Explanation

As someone certified in their biggest competitor's product this is an interesting turn.  Cerner is losing the battle in the EMR space, but Oracle is a company with extreme clout.  And ultimately the EMR is a database.

Oh wow the former top 10 Worldcoin really did conquered the world.
And not all is lost for Devcoin still on one guys watchlist
Litecoin 18
Quark 1361
Namecoin 790
Worldcoin 7015
Megacoin 2324
Primecoin 1119
Nxt 1003
Omni 1648
Infinitecoin 879
Feathercoin 1468
Bitshares 424
Novacoin 2040
Zetacoin 2249
Devcoin +
Anoncoin 2373
Digitalcoin 2218
Freicoin 1892
Ixcoin 1614
Terracoin 1974

For mine, I had about 11 buy orders fill every $1k increment down from about $53k to $42k.. and then I set my sell orders staring at $49k-ish.. which ended up filling 3 between $49k and $51k, so I therefore reset three buy orders between $42k and $44k... so therefore my next sell order is still $52k-ish and my next buy order is $44k-ish..


No need to defend any shitcoin here in terms of asserting which shitcoin might happen to maybe perhaps be less shitty.


Like I mentioned to Richy_T... here and here    I am not even that concerned about the various inferior ways that he may have spent his money.. even though that does contribute to some of my points that imply that selling 25% of your stash all at once is not necessarily good cash management based on the variables that we have right in front of us.. and how the various probabilities line up.

Explanation

I am starting to wonder if we might be beating a dead horse because I made some concessions about all of the things being necessary and useful, so we could not even presume completely that guy was necessarily getting additional value because part of the question would likely hinge upon whether he had any other investments or options... and to me it seems that he was gloating a bit about having had sold 25% of his then stash was because he was attempting to show that he was going to lock in some profits right away in terms of attempting to get some certainty out of the $55k price rather than waiting it out and taking chances that the BTC price could go down further. 

Maybe to attempt to take this matter in a slightly different direction, if we look at the BTC price, and we see that there had already been a dip down to $28,600 (56%), and then cryptorich13, had sold before BTC prices had done the 39% dip down to $41,967, so it seems to me that he was partly gloating about his short-term timing and how it might end up paying off (even though he had some reservations about it too).  Anyhow, these days it should be difficult to recognize unambiguous value in paying down debt with bitcoin even though there is a lot of sentiment that the bull run might be over.. but I still do not see that it would be worth it to shave off more than even a year's worth of BTC on such a gamble, which I had calculated to be 1.4BTC rather than 9 BTC... and part of the rationale would relate to what are the odds that BTC prices might not return to $55k in the next year.. to me it seems that $55k is going to be a pretty strong price point, even though it is the price that Raja_MBZ sold in May-ish, and it is the price that both cryptorich13 and LFC chose to sell 25% of their stash... of course, selling 25% of your stash seems better than what Raja_MBZ did, even though Raja_MBZ's sale preceded the 56% correction and seems a bit ridiculous for him to not have taken advantage of the 56% price drop, but his view was way more inclined that we had entered into a bear market.. and willing to take that gamble including that he wanted to wait until the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average, which was then around $14k and now is about $18.5k...

Of course, similar motives had caused crypotrich13 and LFC to each shave off 25% of their stash, but they seemed to be shaving as a kind of insurance and a desire that they did not want to take any chances to have to wait another 2-3 years for BTC prices to return to $55k, in the event that the BTC prices go down rather than UP.. for a period of time that could even extend out longer than 2-3 years.  Of course, there are no guarantees in bitcoin that we are even returning to $55k soon or even in the next 2-3 years, so it becomes difficult to heavily critique folks who want to shave off higher portions of their stash than what I would have determined to have been justifiable... and sure, maybe I am the one who is gambling that we are not out of this bull run yet and placing too high of odds on that.. and even if we were out of the bullrun, it still seems to me that if we already had corrections of 56% and 39% then it becomes less likely that the BTC price is even going to stay below $55k for more than a year.

Getting back to the enjoying the value now, I can appreciate that there can be quite a bit of value in that, but in bitcoin we have seen a lot of examples of guys cashing out way too much bitcoin too soon because they believe that the bull run is over, and we sometimes will see that at previous ATHs where the price passes through and never comes back down, but we see it at other sticking points and it could take a year or two years or even longer to recognize that the BTC price is highly unlikely to come back down to those levels... saw that in the $400s in early 2016, saw that in the $2-3ks in mid-2017...and some people still waiting for sub $10ks from 2020.. and that ship seems to have sailed.. just like $55k could end up being one of these price points as well..  hard to know at this point because we surely have been visiting and passing through $55k quite a bit since February.

For some reason, I am surely starting to feel repetitive.

Explanation