Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4343. (Read 26712937 times)

You dummy.


Couldn't resist that easy layup.


Well, just think about it.. given naim027's forum registration date of October 4, 2017, even a modestly aggressive BTC investment strategy of $50 per week (given that Bangladesh does not likely have high incomes) would still have put naim027 at the accumulation of 1.2 BTC.. and so ONLY he can really know the extent to which he could have been more aggressive or if less aggressiveness (such as $10 per week) may have been required based on personal circumstances.. but even $10 per week would have put naim027 at more than newbie BTC accumulation target levels, at nearly 0.24 BTC.

It would not necessarily be fair to judge too much because we all know that mistakes can be made and we also all know that if we had failed to do anything, then there is no time better than the present to get the fuck started.... but even getting started can take time and none of us should be too impatient in terms of wanting to get impressive results right away.. or comparing ourselves (and wanting to be equals) to members who have been working on their own financial (and psychological) situation (through bitcoin) for longer periods of time... many of us have our own levels of mistakes that were made in terms of the extent to which we have met or exceeded some of the comparison (reference) points of some kind of straight-forward DCA approach...

And, even let's say that someone might have been in BTC for 8 years, but spends a lot of time fucking up the first 4 years, so maybe it would be unfair to measure the guy from 8 years of DCA'ing because he had only really started DCA'ing around 4 years time.. and sometimes there is not really any prudent and reasonable way to make up for the earlier mistakes of the first 4 years except maybe to be a bit more aggressive to maybe invest $200 per week rather than $100 per week.. but at the same time, there has to be cautions as well in terms of NOT overextending oneself and then ending up into some kind of quasi-mindrust situation based on either getting greedy and then not really prudently/reasonably managing the overall budget and state of psychological preparations.

That was fast  

No place like WO.
I truly love this thread!

@Jojo: Never came across somebody saying so much without using a word.  

Correct and yes, he's far from likeable  


Yup, he puts the toxicity in maximalism, as opposed to the fundamentals unfortunately.


It's called TD Sequential, or now TI I think due to some copyright issues. He still uses it, quite religiously, mainly as sells the code. Apparently it's popular in wall street, or least he successfully used it there, though I fail to really believe that. It's not easy to explain, but based on the idea that candles will correct usually 1-4, or change trends until an 8 or a 9. It's only really reliable about 30-40% of the time I'd say.

There is the advantage that you can see when it's relevant on different time-frames with back-testing, and when it's completely not. For example at the moment on the 3 Day chart it looks relevant:



In summary, the 9 is when you'd be taking profits or buying back into the market, which at least the 9 Buy signal back in October (that changed to a Green 1 when price eventually went back above the Red 5), was relatively useful. In August it also claimed a top, but then would have been invalidated with price moving above it basically. It's not an indicator I'd ever use on it's own, that's for sure, way too unreliable.

The fact he's never been able to create a successful buy/sell script using this indicator should say a lot, while there are many others out there that are successful for generating profits, even simple MA crossovers for example. While it's worth noting that these indicators can make good profits, it won't necessarily be better % gains than hodling, but can be ways to increase $ values in a low-risk manner.


While probably true, I can't deny that, probably neither would he, this is how he makes his money.  Like many others conservative traders out there. Some people even make money being wrong 60-70% of the time! He only speculates on a 3:1 or 4:1 risk/reward ratio, at a minimum. So half the time he might lose X, but then the other half he'll gain 3X or 4X. Overall, up 1.5X to 2X basically.


Yeh "Hyperwave Theory" as I previously referenced. Epic fail basically. At least the guy who invented it - Tyler Jenks RIP - only treated it as a theory, and instead used a different more effective strategy using simple moving averages, in order to be buying back in around $6K to something similar in 2019, exactly when Tone was taking profits. He probably sold his stash to him haha. In fairness though, I don't think he ever claimed $1K would happen, but that it could, based on a specific theory of 100 years worth of data from traditional markets. But alas, BTC is different.

Not that I'm here to defend him either, I've always been highly critical.


While I realise that's intended as a compliment, I really don't think that's hard to achieve  

Tone is stuck with an extremely rigid narrow-minded analysis of data with his sequential system, that as referenced isn't even useful half the time, so he misses a lot. Most things probably. Whereas I actually bother to look at at least a handful of different indicators or metrics, even if I don't always present them here, ideally up to a dozen different variables to factor in (especially on-chain ie data fundamentals).  

It's all good and well sticking to a simple system of data analysis, such as "naked trading", MAs, etc, but it's only reliable when the underlying indicator you're using is accurate, which his is not ironically.


He'll probably need it to be honest.

Waaaaauw, thx jimb

This guy…seriously who does this??? Distributing free bitcoins… I wrote a long post in his recent contest but didn’t post it because i thought someone might take it as buttering but that was a true praise… any way hats off to this dude.

That's what you get in the countryside.
Trust me, i know what i'm talking about  

But there are some beautiful sides to it as well...
Say hello to the moon  



(Drone test, low light RAW edit, definitely need a bigger sensor on the next one).



(Low light sunset, showing off the limits of smartphone-type imaging sensors).

Only got these two shots today, besides a 180° panorama shot, but i'll keep it to private eyes because of OpSec.
The place was already getting fucking cold and the wind was increasing, tried to avoid iced rotor blades at all cost.

https://twitter.com/tuurdemeester/status/1470112628001415173?s=21

I still think its a chat bot.



Weeks?

Hey, you forgot ElDuderino with his attention-seeking contests.

Above $50k thank you buddy!!!

Just little earlier someone said rejecting $50k again?? into your face…!!!

And if you noticed today is they day 12/12/2021.

which puts this argument to rest DD/MM/YYYY or MM/DD/YYYY

At least for 24hrs.

Assuming you are talking about Tone.

Can't like the guy.

1.  He's constantly virtue signalling as a "toxic maximalist" for social media clout.  Annoying.
2.  What the heck is that crazy numerology he at least used to use?  Maybe it's a legit market analysis but it looks more like Oijia board use to me. some 1-9 thing.
3.  He wrong 50% of the time like a coinflip, IMO.  I can't remember the name of the "system" that he and some guy (who passed away RIP) will shilling back ~2018 where they were CONSTANTLY saying we would be dumping to sub 1k prices.  It was like the "supersystem" or something. He really hung his hat on that failed prediction.

I think old Vanga has more credibility than Tone as far as your random Russian market analyst goes.

I mean... i make predictions, and am probably less accurate than him.  But I do not present myself as a professional, or charge for my tea leaves.

Oh, and *YOU* have him beat 10 ways for quality TA woek!

Anyway... good luck to him, I suppose...

Price is breaking through the old short-term support turned resistance-ish trend-line with good volume breaking through the $50K sell wall.



There were two clear tests of long-term support, the 200 Day MA, which further confirmed the longer-term uptrend remains intact. Pretty normal bull market stuff. On the 4hr chart, there is more or less clear skies to the $56K-57K level, where the 200 MA, previous resistance trend-line and VPVR point of control lies. On the Daily chart, the 0.618 retracement level and 21 Day MA ($53.6K) may otherwise be the first point of rejection before re-testing new support around $51K. But given previous support was sloping downwards, I don't see so much horizontal resistance, but more like a nomans land with thin volume upto $56K.


Closing today above $49.5K (Weekly open) will paint an even more bullish picture on this time-frame, with twice the 50 Week MA supporting the price.



The $47K-49K volume profile (circled) is now looking like an accumulation zone (bullish), as opposed to distribution (bearish), with price above it.

Explanation

Well buddy did enjoy the corned beef x-tra large we got close to a 2k lift with that.

Maybe we do a brisket for today.

NEW YORK'S BEST...........Junior...........Large..........X-tra Large
CORNED BEEF...............    21.95...........38.95........82.95 For Saturday the 11th
ROAST BRISKET OF BEEF   21.95...........38.95........82.95  For Sunday  the 12th


all from the menu above. If anyone wants to pick a sandwich from the link feel free we will use it for his monday meal.

I think that covers it. Basically there is a fake rounding top, there is a dip, price recoveries, then goes higher... no need to over complicate the concept imo.

---

That's fair enough, given in the long long-term, Bitcoin has never been in a bear market you could argue. It's never really broken below the 200 Week MA.
I guess I mean mid-term bear market was what made the covid crash possible, whereas the technicals are very different right now.


The discussion is totally subjective really. You can consider it part of the bull market, or a mini-bear within the bull market, or simply that the bear market never ended.
I can see value in each side of the theory really. A 75% drop in a bull market ($14K to $3.5K) doesn't sound bullish to me, but each to their own.


You mean like technically "in a bull market from about April 2019 and known to be in a bullmarket as of about May 2019" which is what you claimed ? Sounds like a technicality to me  


I'd argue considering price to still be in the bear market during the covid drop would have been quite helpful, instead of thinking that a bull market had just ended. Then more people would have been confident enough to buy the 200 Week MA, knowing it was simply the second re-test of long-term support, exactly like in 2015 (even if price structure was different), rater than thinking a bear market had started that would take a(another) year to cover. There are people who prefer the complexity of bull to bear bull or whatever, than the simplistically of bear market over, even if that's what happened. To each their own I say.


True, but this doesn't confirm the bear market ended in 2019 either, but that the bear market itself didn't negative stock to flow, similar to previous cycles.


He largely got taken out of context for this one to be fair, he said the lowest price could realistically go would be $1K, but otherwise considered $2K/$3K to be sufficient, even $4K. His main argument was that $6K would break and lead to lower lows, much less the $1K target. which he was 100% correct about in fairness. That was "hyperwave theory" that has now been disproved, fortunately.


This is completely true. While Will Woo was accumulating the lows based on on-chain data (which you could argue is based on fundamentals), he saw the technicals as remaining bearish and being too open-minded to the idea of $1K. Not to mention completely overlook how the liquidation of shorts could cause a rise not just to $5K, but $10K, even $15K.

Fortunately he accepts how wrong he was about buying $4K and selling $5K (lol), instead of selling >$10K (as a trader of course). Then he would have 2x more BTC than currently, given that he did manage to put his hodl stack back in at $4.5K. But the fact he sold a lot of that stack between $6K-8K means he wasn't really getting much of a good deal out of the price swings either.

Again he's another good lesson to learn for newbies; don't be like Tone became a common consideration. He's pretty good at timing bull markets and the end of them, after declaring the end at $17.5K due to the rejection of a lower high, as well as 2014, but clearly awful timing end of bear markets. I think a lot of his reputation was initially based on being right about the end of the bull, so people assumed he'd be right about the end of the bear.


Probably cos lots of people unsubscribed when he took profits around $6K-8K on the way up, in the meantime the $1K hyperwave guy was buying it  


I'll correct you there, he was completely wrong in 2019. He only managed to regain face in 2020 when he was still waiting for sub $5K while everyone laughed at him, and then it eventually happened.
You could generally argue that he got lucky with that, but whether luck or skill he was right after all. Selling at $17.5K and buying at $4.5K is some good accumulation overall I'd say.

Nice try kid, but... Bad Call... seriously. If you have any interest in BTC at all, you'll benefit from the Torque tid-bits that trickle through from time to time. But Hey, no biggie, we all take wrong turns from time to time. Personally, if I knew half of what I thought I knew at 26 I'd be living on TOP of the world!!! Speaking of BTC... what's your connection? You've been here since what late 2017? (Didn't look, forgive me if I mis-remembered) And you're Bangladeshi, so in an emerging market that is much more populous than profitable, but getting better in general if I understand correctly. No specifics of course (as you seem to already be exposing WAY too much Op-Sec-wise) but what's your game/experience? Did you start buying in 2017? DCA or have you been trying to make it on the day trading Rollercoaster? If you started DCA in December of 2017, that was a high point at $20kish... I could imagine you'd spent a good deal of time in the red with 3 years bouncing between $3k-$10k... but if you continued to invest all that time, you'd be in a pretty good situation right now! But I'm guessing that's not the way it played out since you're still fuckin around with signature campaigns and what not. So what IS your story? Are the signature campaigns really paying off in any meaningful way? Are you reinvesting proceeds into BTC? Or just scrambling to get by day to day and missing even more opportunities than the $3k coins you coulda had? Your English is pretty damn good and you're obviously pretty capable judging by your abilities to navigate the forum... so I can imagine you're able to make a decent living in the fiat world. Coder? Customer support? Just guessing, (OpSec) so whats the plan for rising to the top when the fiat crash comes? (Note I said When not If. If you're really 26, and even more so if 16... storms are brewing! You're bound to sail right into the rough!) What's the game?


(TLDR: Stop Trying to be the type that fits in! Stop trying to earn Merits! Stop trying to contribute regurgitated crap! And maybe people will start to accept YOU if you ever get around to who YOU are...)

I seriously regret I never got the chance to talk to them. Who knows, maybe one day.

Explanation

The disputed fence line finished being built out late yesterday

No shenanigans with the neighbors whatsoever after their lawyer finally explained to them "consequences will never be the same" etc etc

"They" did do a drive-by on their side of the property in their pickup truck to eyeball the work while it was being done, but I had a geofenced drone in the air tracking them upon seeing them coming, and I'm sure the FN SCAR 20s I had slung around my back sent a clear message to further stay away.

TBH, it was less about the money (a trivial 5 digit payment to my lawyer for handling the formalities), and more about those fucking dickheads setting back this phase of the project for four months. They didn't even present a competing survey as they promised. It was all bad-faith time wasting on their part.

Fucking retards. Good grief.

I really like these sorts of volume candles!