Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4390. (Read 26711236 times)

Observing massive walls of text with some tiny buddy walls in between.

Explanation

Largely, I agree with you.

We could almost proclaim that November was largely flat.. especially read in the context of October.


Holy fucking shit, serveria.

You gotta get ur lil selfie a wee bit more realistic than that, no?

If we read $69k as more or less the current price (even though we are really at $57k currently), then you are proclaiming only 10% chance that we do not breach $69k and 90% chance that we do go above it.  I need some of what you are  smokling, even though it is going to likely put me in a bad place and making bad decisions if I actually were to truly believe that there were 90% odds that we are going UPpity from here (or $69k for that matter).

In contrast.. look at my fantasy numbers that attempt to account for both timeline for the top and price level for the top in various different posts, and even at the time that I made those numbers, my odds for no more up (meaning down) were around 42%.. and surely I don't really see any facts that would materially change my  numbers too much... and I thought that I was being overly bullish by maintaining around 47% odds of $100k or higher, but then when I look at your assertion(s), you make me look like a real woose with a puss... no homo.



That's a good point (or lack thereof).. pun intended...

Explanation

I am not sure if "rich" would be exactly relevant, but I will say that they are nocoiners... and they are NOT likely to be dumb peeps even though they likely spent fewer than 100 hours studying bitcoin, even while they likely have spent a whole hell of a lot of time studying and learning a lot of important things in life including but not limited to various micro/macro economic dynamics, for whatever that might mean to you.  

Overall, they are not dumb peeps.  Part of the reasons that we know that they are not dumb is because they can formulate pretty strong opinions regarding the direction of king daddy without hardly even studying it.  Kind of like a fast learner that knows things and even quite frequently are right about things.. that's how they became analysts with decent track records about varying economic things...and even able to back up their opinions with facts and decent logic..,. can be quite persuasive, too.


Exactamente... Rich and smart.  Smarter than a lot of (maybe even most) peeps.. that's how they got to be "analysts."

They also might not realize/appreciate that we are in the midst of the largest wealth transerrening in history... but they can figure that out MOAR later


Oh?

We are going down then?

No pumpening impendening?

Glad to see you putting your TA cap on  


Not really no, anything can happen in a bull market. I'm just not going to speculate too hard on such theories without much basis for it, especially when price is under a relevant distribution level for the time being. If price were to quickly spike above $61K, for sure I'd consider that possibility with a much higher probability. Volatility is at relative lows, so there is a good chance of a big move in either direction, but that direction in the short-term favours the bears, even if in the long-term it'd likely favour the bulls. If the volatility began to favour the bulls, then sure I'd give more validity to that probability.

People didn't like my analysis around $64K when I felt a correction (or at minimum sideways trading) was due either, and therefore remained relatively neutral, but hopefully it avoided some FOMO in order to BTFD instead of chasing the rally that was due a correction, even if minor. Neither did others when price corrected to $45K and many misinterpreted the "golden cross" (that wasn't very golden) before price reached $40K.

Many did like my analysis that $40K would hold back then, even if you were highly sceptical, as well others understandably. As long as my analysis isn't popular, I know it's got value. What worries me more than anything is everyone agreeing that my analysis is useful or accurate, then I know that it's likely wrong. There's a good reason after all that I share it  

Has anyone ever told you that patience is a virtue? The inpatient usually get REKT. There's nothing wrong with a healthy price correction in a bull market, rest assured.


Precisely, you nailed it. It's really not that difficult to identify the indecision in the market right now, from bull traps to bear traps to sideways trading. Classic consolidation below resistance. This is because there is a conflict with short-term bearish pressure and longer-term bullish pressure. This often means down before up, but you can never be sure in these cases.


Again, good analysis here. However the structure of how this is happening is worth paying attention to. This isn't within a parallel channel of consolidation or otherwise a bullish pattern, it's been with lower highs and lower lows, so definitely a time to remain cautious. The lower highs confirms weakness in the price each time it bounces, as do the lower lows. Ie when price goes less and less high each time, it confirms weakness. When price is going down, it's confirming selling pressure. If people would prefer to simply DCA into this dip using a time-based strategy using a blindfold, then for sure I've got no arguments with that idea.


Bare in mind, king daddy doesn't invest in Bitcoin. King Daddy IS Bitcoin. However, investors of Bitcoin are usually interested if there is 2-3 weeks or downside, or even 2-3 weeks of sideways trading. Human beings are naturally curious beings that like to learn, explore new ideas, theorise on the possibilities of life itself. Bitcoin is a nothing more than a computerized blockchain, it doesn't care.


Let's wait and see. At least at think my analysis is more accurate than idea of of 0s and 1s having feelings  

That's something that I think will never truely come to light. Even with AI development etc, I think you forget that Bitcoin is immutable, so even the development of robotics that "theoretically" could artificially generate emotions, doing this with Bitcoin would be near impossible. Remember BCH? That hard fork didn't work either. I doubt a hard fork where Bitcoin starts caring would be successful either!

But I do like the theory of Bitcoin caring and therefore having feelings, it's always interesting to explore different concepts, even if it's only to confirm their irrelevance.

El Dude is going to end up in the hospitales otra vez.


Yes.. you seem quite likely to be wwwwwwwwwrrrrrrrrrroooooooooonnnnnngggggggg....

again...


Bitcoin no does not do sideways very well...

Especially while in the midst of a war

especially while in the midst of a bull run

especially while being in the midst of continuing to fill top 100 daily weighted BTC prices for two months straight.. absent only a couple of days bouncing out of the top 100.

Haven't we lurnt nuttin over the years?  #nohomo

 


If he were smart (which I am having my doubts that anyone involved in Defi could be very smart), then he would be gambling with less than 10% of his stash.. and if he were at least less dumb, then he would NOT have been gambling with any more than 40% of his stash.. so either he still has 8,100 BTC or he still has 5,400 BTC.

I doubt that he was exercising such prudence.. but hey.. you never know.

Explanation

And would you be surprised to see a price wick up to $80k to take advantage of the scaredy cats?  

Does not seem convincing to me either way in terms of whether there might be a price wick DOWNity or UPpity.... especially that we have largely been bouncing between about $53k and $61k for slightly more than 2 weeks (while in a bullmarket).. sure with a overall trending DOWNity in the short term, but since when did our lil fiend, aka king daddy care about that kind of technical mumbo-jumbo shit that might last for 2 weeks-ish or perhaps still only about 3 weeks when we are talking about the last ATH?


What a riddle, but surely could not have lower odds of coming true than the mumbo jumbo that dragonvslinux just propagated upon us....

 


Surely, there is a bit of playing with fire in the whole chosen way forward, especially when they are knowingly propagating lies through their evidence and those lies can actually be shown to either directly be known/knowable or otherwise very strong inferences can be made to show that they are purposefully propagating lies upon the courts.

Explanation

Some misunderstandings of my wordings to clarify...


Don't worry I'm not getting too excited about the idea of a bear market, as requires a lot of patience, nor focusing on down before UP.
I've been clear about believing in $100K-150K by end of bull market, likely early 2022, rather than end of 2021.
My discussion of the future isn't correlated to any present.


I think you've completely misunderstood me here. I made it clear previously that I considered a 75-80% drop with a multi-year bear market, only if price goes parabolic with a blow-off top. The usual 80% drop would be based on the usual parabolic top, ie it's conditional of such an event. I've also been clear about a much lesser correction if say $69K were the top, which is far from parabolic, but would simply be a recovery that failed to move much higher. In this sense I completely agree that $28K would therefore likely be the bottom, with the exception of a fake-out lower to trap bears, mirroring $69K trapping bulls.

Hence why I'm much less concerned about the idea of a multi-year bear market if $69K were the top, unlike others in this thread, as I think $30-35K would therefore become the new bottom in a years time, based on the 200 Week MA trajectory for a bottom, that will continue to rise as 2018 candles between $6K-10K get replaced for much candles at a much higher price. This would effectively mean consolidation for a year between $28K-69K for approximately 20 months, which wouldn't be out of the question for an emerging market. For example if price topped out in 2017 at $7.5K or $10K, as opposed to $20K, I still think $3/4K would of ended up being the bottom, ie the 200 Week MA, which would have largely remained unaffected. I also wouldn't have an issue with such a long consolidation period within a close range, probably have to go and get another job in order to simply DCA again, as I imagine shorting the market would be a bit of a nightmare without (m)any crash-like events.

Personally, I plan for the present as well as the future. I always have a plan for the future, that I then implement when if/it comes the present. Not having a plan for the future often leads to making irrational decisions in the present based on emotion, which is what I try and avoid at all costs, as usually it leads to costly mistakes. I otherwise try and plan for every eventually possible, so that my decisions in the present aren't influenced by the present that's usually overloaded with emotional and irrational sentiment, rather than pre-determined decisions I made in the past. And yes, I have taken into consideration every single eventually possible and how I would react to, despite how exhausting that concept might sound to you or anyone else. This is what I've done for years now to remain prepared.

Please don't get confused by me otherwise being prepared for every eventually possible, as I'm well aware 99.9% of those won't occur and only 1 scenario I've accounted for will actually take place.


Personally I don't think Bitcoin is quite there yet, being worth $1 trillion is peanuts to the idea of a reserve asset, unless you want to make a cheap joke at a party, or a your a rocket scientist wanting to take a shot. For sure I believe this will happen in the future, but I think much more likely around the $5-10T mark it will be taken and treated seriously in this manner, which still wouldn't quite be a $1 milion Bitcoin price either.

You are completely right though, most will simply get rekt or otherwise miss out on a lot of weath preservation, as this is exactly how markets work. The majority lose when trying to trade or be a "smart investor", while the minority succeed. After all, if it was that easy to make money out of this market or others, everyone would be doing it and nobody would have to work for a living.


Yes this is true, it's only the beginning in this sense.


I think these days it's more likely that most will ride it out, and some will take profits, unlike in the previous cycles. At least earlier investors much less likely to take profits these days IMO, unless actively trading. Many investors these days are doing so on the basis that Bitcoin could become the dominant global currency and therefore no.1 reserve asset, therefore selling isn't really an option.

People are much more aware of a 10 year history of profit taking being not only very difficult to do, but 95-99% regrettable in the long-term unless the intention is to re-invest, which usually it's not. Most aren't studying this on a daily or weekly basis for years, they have simply done their X/XX amount of hour of due diligence and taking a leap of faith. Which is obviously also a good thing for the price stability for Bitcoin as well. At least these days those I come across invested in Bitcoin aren't evangelists like those in this thread, they are simply taking the advise of them in order to invest money in a smart manner.

They are mainly all waiting for $1 million, which at a $20T+ market value, roughly speaking, wouldn't be the worst time to take profits either - as by that value fiat probably won't exist anymore anyway, it'll simply be considered as spending money. I'm personally of the opinion that there is not much price above $1 million BTC, that's simply when fiat currencies become redundant, as I fail to see how they would compete. You could argue that it will continue to go to $10 million, $100 million, $1 trillion price in a short matter of time, but that's simply because $ will be worth toilet paper and no longer utilized so the gain won't be realised. If will only be comparable to the likes of Gold or the stock market, which I imagine it would still be able to outperform for a while, especially with more stocks & Gold sold for Bitcoin etc.

I guess the gold reserves being liquidated into Bitcoin will maintain it's steady growth, but the general adoption by Western counties of Bitcoin as it's national currency will be a lot more relevant.
Just my theory anyway  


It does hurt sometimes, but I've never considered hard work to be easy. I take regular breaks, that's the important thing, as otherwise hundreds of charts can literally blind me from reality when I'm "in the zone". Often I'm simply reluctant to pay attention, which has it's ups and downs. At least with good risk management you can simply "ignore" and not have to worry about anything, only loss of income. As I've mentioned it before, I don't do research and fuck around with that nonsense, too many unrelaible variables, I just do it all statistically via risk/reward analysis. Some weeks are busy, other months there's no work to be done and it's already done. Ideally a solid trend in one direction or another limits the amount of labour. Ideally I'd be a good programmer and have a bot do my work for me  


Now we're on the same page. I still see a blow-off top happening, as there's simply no reason not to have one this time as I don't see anything relevantly different, yet.
I'm also not ruling out the idea of that it doesn't happen either, but not having one and $69K being the top is much less of a concern to be honest.


Ok well price is the variable, time is the constant, to put it differently. It's both, but price doesn't effect time. Time does affect price however.
The only correlation is time has previously determined price's up and down movements, but it hasn't determined precise tops or bottoms so much.
This would moving averages for example, or other metrics, that combines both time & price factors. These I like  


The whole floor price model nonsense doesn't negate S2F at all no, as I said previously, reaching that median price even only by 2024 ($80K-100K whatever), would confirm it. Many people seem to think these models are dependant on each other, but this couldn't be further from the truth. The floor model was dependant on S2F, but S2F isn't dependant on the floor model as it were.

What can I say, people are easily confused, hence they often lose a lot of money or value in this market  


My targets were minimums, not maximums. I don't see how having an infinite and undetermined possible value of a Bitcoin top is bearish?
I'm starting to learn why so many people do get rekt in this market when misinterpreting analysis to be honest though, no offence.
Many people make the mistake of selling short-term strength as opposed to longer-term weakness, I do not however.


Again, I'm not. I clearly said by 2024, not until 2024. So for reference sake that could be today, tomorrow, end of year, next year, 2023, or even 2024 itself.
Again, a complete misunderstanding of what I said. I merely explaining what would invalidate Plan B's model - nothing until 2024 at earliest basically.


Plan B is starting to sound like a denialist. He had a model that worked for 10 years of data, good for him. it's useless now though so best to move on. 75% accurate is poor quality. He's basically trying to blame the market as being wrong, as opposed to a model that has clearly failed him. His S2F still works, he should stick to that if you ask me. Or just make another model, ideally.

A normal microSD card may get hot especially at first sync.

It's not that hard, depending on what you are trying to do or what the requirements are. I am simply running a full node from my daily use workstation. Ideally, you'd run it separately on its own server or instance or VPS or hardware (like some do with Raspberry Pis).

I've quickly skimmed over that document, it's only 33 pages. The first 13 pages are explanations on why and what. The how starts on page 14. And it's basically a step by step like: download, verify, run. with "make sure your hardware and your space" has enough blah blah blah, which isn't that much if you can run it on a Pi, you can run it on any Windows device that has a terabyte or less of space.

Then the last part are other examples of ready to use full nodes and where to buy them, as well as where to download some software specifically for Pis so just run them and you have a full node ready.

And then a couple on Android devices, although I don't know anyone who recommends that when you can run it on a home desktop (or even laptop) and just use a light client on your phone or tablet. I mean, sure, a recent generation Samsung with a 512 GB or 1 TB microSD card will probably work, but I think that's not a good use for a phone.

Some day maybe, in 10 to 20 years, when all our phones and the cheapest $50 phone has terabytes of RAM or something.

Explanation

I'm with this guy:
(click for the full post)

I dunno man but I have a feeling this was not the top ($69k). I think that if we won't moon in December we will do it in Q1 2022.

So if we speak about possibilities:

$69k was the top - 10%
modest top ~$80k in December - 20%
face-melting top in Q1 2022 - 70%

All numbers and predictions are strictly SOMA. DYOR.  

It's kinda funny. I wish there was a decentralized way to buy into the stock market, I don't need a more centralized way to buy into Bitcoin!
Can you imagine buying a stock certificate that doesn't require a centralized broker to store it for you? And it doesn't require annual payments to said broker for said storage? Okay, paper would be annoying, but blockchain technology could completely replace the current stock brokers!

So SEC, if you're reading here (of course you are!): how about you get me a stock market based on private keys? You can forget about the Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin works just fine already.

The SEC can go fuck themselves with a rusty pipe

SEC just rejected the #Bitcoin ETF application by WisdomTree



Merry Christmas.

Hopium tweet from the new BTC kid:


https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1466469993848217610


I think it, a little bit counterintuitive, as I was inclined to think about LTH (Long Term Holders) as the sharks going to be fed by small fishes (weak hands).