Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4483. (Read 26709793 times)

An interesting article comparing Bitcoin and its adopters to the expansion of the USA into the west during the 1800s. I enjoyed it so thought I'd post here.

https://www.citadel21.com/bitcoin-and-the-american-west

I'm truly astonished James from InvestAnswers, who normally seems to do his due diligence works with this NFT "Metaverse-land" shiller.

Unbelievable the sheer stupidity, lack of scrutinisation and lack of passion in Bitcoin and trying to promote everything else from this Rob moron.

 

Even his own subscribers don't buy this nonsense (see comments) but appear to be too afraid to downvote it seems. Not that it matters, since Youtube is getting rid of the dislike count soon (can still see it here in the UK at the moment).
Any shitcoin / NFT / Metaland shiller will look great from now on.

 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jg7r2_EqOzQ&ab_channel=DigitalAssetNews

Explanation

Ah its complicated. Its simple to put Climate Change into two words for people to understand but it is the way it just went its just the reality of our living.. We affected our enviroment and we can save it GLORIOUSLY. Wouldnt this be a wonderful thing to be remembered by the future Generations? A Beautiful legacy to inspire the best in us..


Well this could only be a perspective .. this is also complicated  

“Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.”
― Marcus Aurelius , Meditations

shahzadafzal and his friends are booking a flight from Pakistan to Vienna right now, the whole of WO will be there for the $63k party even the anti vax people, savetherainforest, little billy no coins and Proudhon (could be the same person).

Hm, afaik "the flow" was a concept of the early 90's.
For example, "groovy" was more a popular 60's hippy slang term, imho.
But i might be wrong, i was born in the 70s and "go with the flow" was a revived phrase.

Explanation

I thought that was 60s hippie slang.

I just got vaccinated for the 23th time, this week.

Explanation

140K coins is not even half of the supply of a year of the current halvening cycle.
About as many coins as are "supplied" by mining are leaving exchanges, sometomes even more, according to on-chain analysis, IIRC.
I put "supplied" under quotes, because miners are also accumulating for future sales, so these coins might get on the market in the future, or not.
Also, i consider the typical MtGox customer as a hodler, so i doubt that every single released coin will be dumped for filthy fiat.

Even if my opinion might have flaws:
We'll see. For me it will be an opportunity to throw spare fiat at low bitcoin prices.


If you survived 2013 with most of your stash (did you?), you will have the patience to sit this out. Turbulences ahead doesn't make a pilot return to the airport.
In 90's hipster slang: Go with the flow 

Explanation

That upgrade to fikka in a hipster joint has got to you.
No more cheap delicacies for you at the discount store.

What is going on in Sweden with the director of finance supervisory authority and the lapdog in environment protection agency trying to get the EU to ban bitcoin. Because energy use might see Sweden fail to meet its climate nonsense target.

Seems more to be that Swedes are keeping cash in their microwaves rather than in the bank at negative interest rates that is worrying the financial guy Erik Thedéen.

So in future we might be saying Sweden bans Bitcoin again! All panic.

just hodl - and all is good

Of course, I am not wedded to any kind of scenario, but you seem to be the one that is more emphasizing upon some kinds of scenarios are not within the realm of because this time is different or some kind of nonsense (or presumption) like that.

Sure, we might have differing presumptions about where we are at exactly, and my description has been that we have been largely been in a bull cycle since about April 2019 - which was largely confirmed in May 2019... so there have been a lot of ups and downs in that 2.5 year timeframe, and surely I will concede that you want to focus upon where we are at currently and attempt to analyze whether we might be in an exponential upwards phase or if that exponential upwards phase had already happened and therefore we might be topping or not able to recover from various 15% to 30% recoveries because the 4-year fractal timeframe is running out.. 

Even if I have not characterized your argument adequately or fairly, I am still going to assert that there seems to be some attempts at putting limits on king daddy in terms of what is possible and you seem to be wanting to fight the various BTC price models to assign higher probabilities to downside (such as your suggestion that $52k or $42k is even decently likely) than what I would consider to be reasonable in terms of both my consideration that we are in an upwards price pressure posture including being in noman's land which largely gives some presumptions to $80k having high chances of being reached before $52k.., and yeah for sure nothing is inevitable or for sure and maybe even the odds are not very high that $80k would be reached before $52k.. in the ballpark of 53/47?  or some other weighing of odds rather than proclaiming matters with high levels of certainty.



I doubt that bitcoin is limited in any kind of meaningful sense based on these kinds of assertions.. sure instead of getting 100x in 1-2 years like in 2013 or 78x in 2-3 years like 2017 we might only be capable of some smaller numbers, such as 50x.. and yeah we might already be well over 16x if we might be counting $4,200-ish as our 2019 starting point (or surely we could have different assessments regarding what is reasonable or feasible based on starting from different price points.. and some peeps might argue that $10k is our reasonable starting point or the previous ATH of $20k as reasonable starting off points, and I personally would claim that those higher number starting off points are not really representative of a more reasonable starting off point that would more likely be somewhere in the sub $10ks such as using bottom prices or even bases in which it could be argued that the current run started).

By the way, I also would suggest that this time does not even seem that much different in terms of outlining limitations because of some of the macrofactors involving money printing or even the level of financialization that bitcoin has been experiencing in recent times and further supported by some of the BIGGER players increasingly getting into the bitcoin space and making fundamental assessments of the solidity of bitcoin's investment thesis compared with other asset classes.


Sure you are free to come to whatever assessment that you like in terms of what you believe to be in the short to medium term bitcoin cards, yet from my perspective you seem to be both bearish on the upside and seemingly failing/refusing to give sufficient accounting for various seemingly credible BTC price projection models that would not give too much weight to either the top already being in or that we have already gone through our exponential price rise period for this cycle.. and sure I am repeating myself on this aspect and sure you seem to be downplaying such exponential upside potential for this cycle.

I could also proclaim that bitcoin does not work in the way that you seem to be ascribing because 1) we already had a hell of a pretty large price correction with the 56% correction and 2) large corrections become mostly justifiably likely when large upside has also happened... but hey, do what you like in terms of spinning your own model, even if some folks, including yours truly, would consider such a model to be a wee bit detached from how bitcoin works even while I would concede that anything is possible, even if I consider you to be describing a less likely scenario while suggesting that you consider such a scenario to be amongst the more likely of scenarios.


Ok fair enough... we do seem to agree on this part.. and in that regard maybe at minimum each of us would conclude that something like a doubling of the current top (which would be something like $130k-ish) would have decent chances of happening for this cycle and we have not seen a kind of crazy-ass price moves, yet.  Surely, I have reservations to presume anything too crazy in terms of tops, either, so I will grant that my assignment of probabilities does get increasingly less and less as we go up the spectrum of price possibilities.. but seems that I am a bit more receptive than you to some of the upside possibilities.. and you are likely assigning more weight than me to downside probabilities.

Accordingly, at this time, I probably have not moved very much off of my probability estimations from about 5 days ago (quoted below for ease of reference)...

Unironically this is the best advice on this topic right now. For a long time we have been seeing dips on Fridays and if history continues to repeat itself then using your pocket money for a couple of satoshi's might be worth it.  

We need some big news to push it further that is the only way we will get the FOMO factor. Most news sites are not talking about Bitcoin either.

Perhaps so... We GenXers got to that place a little early I think... 

A fav link for me:

https://babylonbee.com/news/nations-gen-xers-announce-plan-to-just-sit-back-and-enjoy-watching-boomers-millennials-tear-each-other-to-shreds

Explanation