I am a wee bit confused about the definition of "cycle" that the article is using.
Haven't we already established that this cycle has a time element too.. so when is the time element that the article is predicting in terms of when this supposed top will happen?
Well the question is not the top of the cycle as much as it is the length.
I still think the cycle will stretch further then any former cycle has ever been.
Which means not NOV/DEC 2021 blow off and decline starts Jan 2022
Mainly due to covi-19/chip shortages/ supply chain issues / money printers go brrrr /
In Jan 2022 social security will go up 5.9% biggest jump since Ronald Reagan was the prez.
But life is unpredictable if you try to pick the ending month of this cycle it is hard to do. Should be fun to watch it unfold . I root for 6-8 months of sideways and Maybe May 17 we do the real jump up. Till August 1st.
2022 say 300k then we drop.
Fair enough philip. I was largely attempting to criticizing the article quoted by Biodom by seeming to not even specify a timeline for the cycle and just leaving the timeline of this particular cycle vague.
I would supplement what you are saying philip with a suggestion that there is likely a kind of gravitation for the bitcoin price to cycle within four-year time frames as is already suggested by S2F and by the four-year fractal models which are surely amongst the most valid of current models to suggest where bitcoin is going.
However, at the same time, I would suggest that current events (happenings) like the ones that you suggest can end up causing pulling effects on the dynamics of this particular cycle to potentially cause it to drag out longer than expected (at least this time around), and also just considering some of our recent bitcoin specific price momentum events, such as both how long it has taken to recover from our 56% price drop (in May/June) and also even if parallels can be drawn between today's overlay of the fractal and BTC's price dynamics in 2013. It does not seem that currently we have as many of the smallness factors (size of the market) of the 2013 cycle to end up experiencing a blow off top that only went about two months in 2013... once the BTC price started to shoot up in September/October 13 to end up peaking in November 13 and then having a pretty quick downfall too..
Anyhow, there do seem to be sufficiently more maturity in the BTC market now in order to help facilitate BTC price dynamics that might drag this cycle out longer than previous cycles, even if there might be another one or two tops
(that feel as if they are blow-off tops) contained therein before what ends up being the actual top of the cycle is completely reached.