Shithead Musk started Tweeting about Bitcoin again. Perfectly timed once again as we try to hold 60k. Bad sign.
Fuck Musk. Who cares?
Hint hint.. you should not care, UnDerDoG81.
Another way to talk about that model... is it does not take into account things that are outside of it.
My concern is not so much about the need to account for other asset classes, but instead to merely account for exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.
I think that reality is one reason he made his cross asset version.
Incorporation of more assets.. ends up incorporating more information incidentally.. no problem.
Because the original S2F model is all about the very pure numbers of only bitcoin. But if bitcoin starts competing with other stores of value then we also have to consider the effect of that.
Bitcoin has already been competing with other assets as stores of value since when it first started to get a market price. Yeah, in the beginning bitcoin was not much of a competitor.. but with the passage of time, increased adoption and networking effects help to show (more and more) the solidness of bitcoin's having value... and then furthermore the ideas of bitcoin present use cases, future use cases and various kinds of associated value and potential value gets further and further into the consciousness of people which causes them to want to spend their other forms of money and assets before spending bitcoin (Gresham's law)...
Bitcoins S2F is similar to golds now, I think.
Close enough.. yes.
So by that measurement it deserves a 10x just to be correctly valued (which gets us almost halfway to your 1.5mm land). But when you consider it also would be competing with real estate, bonds, collectables etc... the pie just got WAY bigger.
Bitcoin is somewhere between 10x better than gold or 100x better or even 1000x better than gold.. and sure accounting for several of those other less efficient stores of value.. would also get sucked up (gravitated into bitcoin)..
Hey.. one thing about the $1.5 million for this cycle, would be that I am not really talking about any kind of fundamental and reasonable rise in prices.. but just a bit of a 3x to 5x additional excuberance.. so instead of topping somewhere reasonable between $250k and $400k, we end up getting 3x to 5x more.. similar to what happened in 2017, when probably $3k to $5k would have been more than a reasonable toping off, but we ended up getting 4x to 6x greater than reasonableness... largely based on momentum.. and FOMO or whatever, I suppose.
Another by the way is that there is no real reason to need to get to any kind of fundamental value of $1.5 million in this cycle because surely we can recognize and appreciate that bitcoin has (or is going to have) at least that amount of value in the future (perhaps next cycle or the one after that - at the latest) and that fundamentally we might even be able to justify bitcoin prices in the $30million to $100 million range even though it could take 4-6 cycles to get within that range (I am getting a bit SOMA inclined, currently)...
This is where I think the original S2F model breaks to the upside. PlanB was smart to have a second model waiting up there to catch it so he can say "See? My OTHER model was right".
Fair enough on PlanB having had made a more comprehensive model.. as a back-up plan
(Plan C).
For most true Bitcoin OGs, an 80% draw down from some future ATH means they are still rich and will likely stay all in btc, essentially forever (BYOB). They won't really care anymore about future bear markets.
Well said.
Very well said…. Though I would less enjoy it …. Way less ….
Of course, let's say that you, as an OG bitcoiner, are running low on some cash to consume some hookers, lambo and blow, and the BTC price has made an 80% dip from $500k down to a mere $100k.. so instead of being in 500x profits, you are ONLY in 100x profits.. yeah.. mistakes were made in terms of your wealth management, but are you going to really give too many shits in terms of shaving a wee bit of value off your stash in order to get your fix.. rather than waiting until next year or even until next month for that matter when you have hardly any clue about what the price is going to do, and whatever you sell is fucking 100x profits anyhow.. and sure it could be 500x blah blah.. but who cares, get your damned fix and stop being "less enjoyable" over the whole matter... cheer the fuck up.
#nohomo