Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4650. (Read 26607989 times)

Thank you my friend. I'm so happy to know my piece is in good hands and appreciated. That means a lot to me.

So sorry to hear about your dog passing, dude. My condolences.

thank you!

I know what you mean! It seems so fucking one sided! it seem there is more taking than giving... This would work lot better if there is some mechanism to flow fund back the other way with out incurring ridiculous fees, that is also, when there is a path to be found.

I was very calm when i posted earlier, but your comments have just brought back feelings from the week before! argghhhhh! FUCK!

Good as done my friend. Will make and post it tomorrow from work. Was really busy today so no wall observing.
I don't have a Mastercam seat on my home pc. 
(I used to, when I was into pirating naughtiness back in the day)

For all the wo bro legends that were not included , my apologies. It was pretty much a random selection.
I am more than happy to make a jpeg for anyone who asks.

Went out to catch the new Venom movie with Rick (Don't see it. Pirate it. Absolute shit. I hated my life for two hours) and find that my LOOP channel was drained and closed again.

Fuck you man.

Seriously.

I hate this game.

I don't want to close all my channels just to reconcile my fucking funds.

This is pure bullshit.

Very pissed off.

EDIT: Thinking I'm figuring out what LOOP is doing when it's closing its channel with me. Believe it may be closing out the channel, and paying me the profit (or loss) I made, which is why everything balances out, minus channel-open fees? *sighs* Frustrating. Something doesn't quite seem right with that somewhere, but I can't be sure...

EDIT2: No, I'm not seriously PO'd. Just being a melodramatic little bitch because I can't figure out what the fruity RasPi is doing with my goddamn corn

Explanation

Lightning Strikes Twice!

Second week into this Lightning Network Saga. Real Life work has been a priority so I haven’t had much time to invest in this Lightning Node or follow-up on the previous post.

So I have taken some of my advice and thought seriously about where to position my node in the grand scheme of things and have decided I do want to be a routing node. I have decided to raise the fees to hopefully break even, and reduce the fees along the way when the channel has paid for itself. Will also be throwing another 5-10BTC into this venture, depending on how the next few weeks go... Not ready to pack it in yet!

My OP may have sounded negative, but in no way am I discounting Lightning Network. My expectation is in no way a reflection of the Lightning Network Bitcoin Scaling Solution.
This was a point of view from a LN node that was more focusing on Routing Payments than Retail Payments/Usage; the latter of which I strongly believe should be the primary reason for Lightning Network Layer 2 Scaling Solution.

I think there will be some sort of balance between OnChain and OffChain when lightning has critical mass, and in turn make it more profitable to run a lightning node.

I can definitely see the huge potential for micro transactions and general low value transactions but I cannot see any business case to "starting a routing node" in the hopes to turn a profit or break even, as it stands, without significant amount of capital/BTC. Remember 1BTC just isn’t going to cut it!

My expectation of being able to route thousands of transaction from the get go may have attributed to the less than favourable experience, but again that was me and not Lightning Network.

I am going to try and use it as a consumer and see how the experience is, although very limited support here in Australia. It may have to be virtual usage.

Final thoughts and comments....

Sorry Bob for getting you back into this Lightning Network Saga! Just when you thought you were out, they pull you back in!

It is very addictive and euphoric opening new channels. Not sure what it is, but every time a new channel is opened I feel like a kid in a candy shop again!

I have also “bit the bullet” and moved from command line to GUI (Ride The Lightning). Managing 60 Channels via CLI was starting to hurt the eyeballs and the JSON output was really starting to annoy me!

Now is a good time to start your own LN node, especially being able to open channels for 1SAT/vByte. If anyone wants and/or needs help. More than happy to help and don’t forget to join the WO LN Hub! Send me a PM for the required LN Node PubKeys.

I have given up on trying to re-balance the channels and just let it be. As an experiment, I have adjusted the current fee structure, and this in turns has made things lot quieter.
Last week, we had routed about 148 payments and collected approx 230SATS.

This week we have only routed 18 payments but have collected a significantly more amount for fees, approx. 2,761 SATS, and while it helps cover cost, I cannot help but feel bad for the person routing the payments (maybe because I know how it feels, kind of like being ripped off...)

I think part of the other issue I have is not having enough visuals on what is going on within the Lightning Network. Where payments are being routed, who is spending and where are they spending from etc. All we get to see is a transaction coming in and going out. It would be nice to see the start and end of that transaction. It sometimes feels like you are fishing in the middle of the ocean, all alone, waiting for something to bite, very lonely  

I have always advocated for the notion of “don’t just judge it for what it is now”, “but for what it could potentially be”. And I still do strongly believe LN will be the future of Bitcoin.

Plan B posted this back in June -

@100trillionUSD
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down.

There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1406577006230245376?s=21




We closed August at just over 47k by like $150.

We just closed September at around $43,750 so the model is holding. We need much better this month. Welcome to Uptober boys.

I’ve started telling people to make sure they have a little BTC just in case this end of year runup comes to fruition. You aren’t going to want to be a nocoiner come Halloween and miss out on the fun. I think the ticket is worth the cost of admission. Even for weak hands and short term market players, I think the time is now and hope this isn’t the world’s largest bull trap.

I am having some difficulties appreciating how an 11-year old could be having "sexual tension."    Maybe something in the water to screw things up?  Maybe?

Explanation

yes

Oh?  maybe I misinterpreted part of what you were saying, then?



If it is in the WO then it should be in dollars... because that is our trading pair reference in these here parts...

And surely $80k seems like a very small blow-off top, so it does not seem too likely.. at least in terms of the various credible BTC price prediction models that we have, currently.



I doubt that it is very meaningful to separate calendar year and talk separately about what might happen in 2022.. because for all intents and purposes, we are in the middle of a cycle and a bull run, so the ONLY real question remains when the bull run portion is over.. Is it already over?  Not sure yet, but seems like, not.



The 104-week and the 208-week moving averages work, so I suppose it depends on what you are trying to achieve... I try NOT to give too many shits about the various happenings in the middle of a cycle.. but I am somewhat concerned about bottoms or potential bottoms.. so call that part of my bias and the reasons why I have recently been trying to employ the 104-week moving average and the 208-week moving average in terms of expressing some of my concerns.



Fair enough.. there is likely a balance in terms of how much fiat to hold... and peeps are going to come to differing conclusions regarding their comfort levels in those regards.




Well the 208-week moving average was around $5k in March 2020, and the BTC price went below it for about 10 days or so.

Of course, since the current BTC spot price is nearly 3x the 208-week moving average, the 208-week moving average is continuing to move up at quite a decent pace.. something like 10% per month.. or maybe even a wee bit more than that... at least for now... and sure it is a lagging indicator too..


Sure.. in the end, each of us has to figure out some formulas, indicators and employment of strategies (even if we feel that we are attempting to play the BIGGER of the price swings) that we feel work for us.


My main point in making some of the above statements was not so much about your wife in particular, but only that there sometimes needs to be some prior conceptualization and/or flexibilities built into your own strategies and plans in order that you are able to adapt to some changes in real life circumstances that might not had been previously known or anticipated.... or even if they were partially known and anticipated, you likely are not going to know the details or specifically how to respond to the specifics until you get to time 2 rather than when you are at time 1.  


Sure.. I am o.k. with that, too.



I have trouble with "have to", but I understand what you are saying.



I would think that most models are not going to be very precise.. especially when referring to a future that has not happened, yet.


You mean if we went from $3k to $20k in 3 months that is nearly 7x so.. 7x from here is $280k-ish?

Sure, might be a bit of a stretch, including NOT too likely to happen.. never say never, but sure.. perhaps low odds..



Fair enough.

I hardly know the difference and hardly give any shits...yeah he is including other assets in there... whatever, I take those models with a grain of salt, even though I say that they are amongst the most convincing of factors, I still try not to get too much caught up in any of the particulars including if one has a higher top or blah blah blah.



Yes.. you are a slow poe.. I must admit.

 

OT: not as described in urban dictionary, but bonobo monkeys (the most sexual creatures on Earth, apparently) have some interesting variation..some documentaries are posted (f/f).
EDIT: they don't call themselves lesbians, but do bite males because males don't perform as well.

Can 2 big clit steroid lesbians engage in docking?

Gonna look fab next to those gay xmas cards on your shelf...   #nohomo

Exactly...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-could-be-heading-into-an-era-of-high-inflation-that-produces-paltry-or-even-negative-real-returns-on-safe-assets-analyst-warns-11633016799

Explanation

You sick fuck! Can I now unsee it? Please?