Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4684. (Read 26608271 times)

Explanation

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Right, Jojo's not only on point with his memes!

Explanation

This is a particularly interesting moment in the evolution of Bitcoin.  Either the LN and other layer 2 systems solve the base scaling problem.  Or?  They don't.  And it's still a question on which bets can be placed.

I believe the VERY FIRST response on the punks mailing list to Satoshi's announcement was "It does not scale".  And theat person was effing smart.  Because they could see far enough down the road to realize that the architecture of bitcoin was flawed if it was to keep all of it's important attributes.  I have assumed that person was someone familiar with networks.  And saw that bitcoin was a "broadcast network".  I am not math nerd.  But I get why continuing as a broadcast network is not really possible without centralization.

Imagine if cell phones worked this way.  When you were talking:  Every cell tower on the entire network would be transmitting your conversation.  As well as every other conversation.  This cannot work.  Not yet.  Possibly not ever.

The issue is not can hard drive get big enough to store the blockchain, but can the network itself sustain the amount of traffic produced when every person on the planet is using it.

That guy back in 2009 was right.  It does not scale.  Not that way.

So how will it?

I believe we are seeing the answer to that question being decided in real time in the arena of production software.  It really is quite exciting, isn't it?

I think what we are watching is tech finding it's way.  It always does.  

The fact is Bitcoin encompasses the EXACTLY CORRECT mix of attributes to have been what was inside pandora's box.  I am not saying it's perfect.  I am saying it is more than perfect enough.  What I mean is it's limitations are not big enough to stop it, and tech will find the ways around those limitations.  It's amazing to me that Mike Hearn could not see this.  Because it is the fallacy of a beginning coder.  It goes like this:

1.  Make new software.
2.  Discover limitations and mistakes in the code or archetecture.
3.  Succumb to the temptation to tear it all up and start over.

Even with a project that does NOT need the "immaculate conception" that bitcoin had this rookie mistake is too costly to do much of the time.  Other important protocols, and software all have faced this moment, usually multiple times.  TCP/IP, Netscape/Mozilla/Firefox, Windows, Debain etc.  Those are all protocols and projects that reached breaking points and in ALL cases there was always a contingent of the choir saying that the solution is to just start from scratch.  And sometimes that does work.  OSX.  Chrome...  But Firefox has survived and overcome it's many gangly limitations over the years in spite of being the first mover and having to learn a lot of the hard lessons for the competitors to got to avoid "for free".  And in some ways BECAUSE of that.  It was the first mover.  I still use it.

But Bitcoin has a unique property.  It is a kind of software that we cannot really just "do over".  TCP/IP is the closest in that list, and it is no coincidence that it is a protocol, rather than an application, so to speak.  Because Bitcoin is arguably also more a protocol than an application.  And there are two reasons we have to "live with it" in spite of the issues that exist.

1.  It is "in production".  The train is moving and individuals, and companies have parked BILLIONS of USD worth of value in it.  It is in use.  Well over a decade of use at this point.  And value is flowing into it at an increasing pace.  The question of whether it has become too big to stop yet is being argued still.  But I think the argument is starting to become very hollow.  Roger Ver tried to stop it 4-5 years ago, and it crushed him.  He may not be ready to admit it yet, but he has lost at LEAST hudreds of millions of USD in value by betting that an "improved" version of Bitcoin would be able to overtake the production network.  Too late.  Too late 4 years ago.  Too late now.

2.  It is becoming money.  AND it is doing so as a decentralized (unto distributed) network that no single player fully controls.  Not even the developers.  (BCH proves that as well.)  And because of this if we try to start over it will be inferior in this most important ways EVERY TIME.  Pre-mined, gamed, centralized etc.  And the world is waking up to this.  The smartest folks can see at least intuitively why Bitcoin is unique.

So... The lightning network?  And all it's problems?  I will not go through the argument here... but the need for on chain transactions is one.  I believe this will be what it will be.  Bitcoin will become much more expensive to use as it is used more and more, and the users will figure out all kinds of novel ways to optimize this without tearing down the protocol.  Lightning is one.  One clue to this actually working is El Salvador.  For them bitcoin is simply what is inside Chivo, or WoS, or Muun or whatever.  They don't care about "on chain" or "base layer".  They have not only MOVED past that argument... they STARTED past it.  And they are using the Bitcoin network nearly for free.  I can imagine there will be people who NEVER DO a base layer transaction in their lives, and yet will live on Bitcoin.  AND it is possible for them to do so in a self-custodial manner.Yet not required.

What about the difficulties of running a lightning node.  I am not sure how long I have been running a node... But the current one is about 2 years old. and the other one was something like #197 on the network.  So three years?  I have worried about channel balancing, and I have not.  I have added and subtracted channels along the way.

Crazy thing is along the way it is getting easier and easier to use.  Some of my channel partners keep their channels meticulously balanced.  Personally?  I do not see the benefit in this.  It really only matters if you have a very small number of baldy connected channels.  If you have several well connected channels then you can make and receive payments all over the place.  And your NODE stays balanced even if your channels do not.  I assume if I were living out of it I would have to continue to inject value into the outgoing liquidity side to keep the system working, but that is now easily done using all KINDS of tricks.  Opening and closing a channel, yes, but also looping in and out, leasing liquidity etc.

I believe as the LN evolves we will see it begin to manage itself as far as balancing goes.  MPP for example will make stagnant small channels useful, and I think as pathfinding evolves nodes can be smart enough to manage their fees in a way to drive traffic into and out of the channels that need a little push.  Software can do ALL OF THIS.

I will leave you with one prediction...

Some minders, in the future, will monetize their businesses, not only by SELLING the bitcoin they mine, but also by locking it into the LN (and other layer two) as they competitively become the new payment network of the world.  Why would they SELL it all?  The only reason now is they need it for OpEx.  Well, there is another way coming that lets them HOLD it, and make money as well.

Mike Hearn is undoubtedly a smart dude.  But he was wrong.  Very, very wrong.

Although I am in a great RL crisis RN, I can't help but laugh at the latest "China bans Bitcoin" soap opera, Season 8, Episode 28. I wonder what Winnie the Pooh and his communist gang actually achieve by declaring trading via VPN of crypto as illegal? Do they have the capacity to track each of its citizens and impison them for using VPN? I haven't heard about a single sentence in China for using a VPN. The point of VPN and other ways of masking the computer is exactly this - to keep anonimity.

So, let's think about it. There are 3 ways to use a VPN and remaing undetected when contacting an exchange,  localbitcoins, paypal, revolut, etc. 1st, one can use a public computer and find one of the thousands free vpn services, not to mention the paid ones, which are much more secure. 2nd, one can go out of China temporarily to do so. 3rd, one can use a trusted friend or OTC intermediator to do it on his behalf. Regarding the selling, the solution is even simpler: make a bank account abroad and if one needs to transfer the profit in a China's bank, he must declare that the profit is made with the bank products e.g. stocks, like Amundi, Shroeder, etc which are offered by many banks. So, there is no way for this threat to make a real impact on the decision of even the poorest chinese peeps to invest in Bitcoin. That is the truth, and it must be known. In reality the number of chinese owning Bitcoins continues to grow. It is way more than we can imagine and that is why the legs of the communist gang are shaking to the point when the whole regime will collapse in an avalanche of bank bankruptcies.

BTC floor has been set. Large bids across all major exchanges.

BTC came within $1,300 of my on-chain floor model and is still $148,000 from my top model.

Do we trade a few thousand $ lower? I couldn’t care less. The asymmetry of being long over the next few months is huge.



https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1441777670774304772?s=21

Explanation

More as exactly correct @Torque

Legit question: I see posts like yours here on WO from time to time. This expectation of a magical price rise to X price by Y date, or else expectations get shattered.

Price doesn't just rise by magic. So who is going to provide this magical levitation? Why must Bitcoin hit a certain price by a certain date? Because a soothsayer chartist says so?

Not trying to be combative or negative, I'm just extremely curious in the thinking here. If you are thinking the PlanB S2F model, just know that it is not a self-fullfilling prophecy. Someone has to actually make it happen by buying. Actually a whole lot of someones doing a whole lot of buying in a short time frame (demand suddenly overwhelming supply). And they are not looking at someone's chart to decide when to do that.

In fact, the more people there are that believe the S2F model definitely will happen, the more that whale traders will have an incentive to NOT make it happen and do the opposite, fucking over both leveraged longs and shorts, and trying to shake out more weak-handed hodlers.

you don't take stimulants do you?

  I have had a few friends flutter their heartbeats.  
All of them that are still alive stopped coke, lowered caffeine  etc.
The ones that kept doing the coke all had massive heart attacks and are gone.

My family's heart genes are fairly good. Most men in my family die from prostate cancer.

    But if you are getting heart fluttering you will need to do some changes.
  I spend 30 minutes on the stationary bike 3 times a day after each meals .
 I do my blogging and posting on an iPad it has done a lot for my health and weight.

Zero-fee weekend for muh node. Let's see how this plays out when I adjust fees on Monday.

Explanation

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1441761578630594561

true true, but sports and jogging etc is under good control and a daily thing ...

cheers

Explanation

Will give you some likes and 1 new follower once i setup my fake twitter account.

This is so under-merited.
Everyone should really read this. Thank you jojo, everything in one place.

You've been watching idiocracy, judging by you're personal text.