Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4767. (Read 26609669 times)

Thx xhomerx and indeed there are a lot of beautiful places, even in Belgium Ardennes we have some very very nice green spots...

Great idea sirazmuth.

You may well want to make a song, poem or coin about our mutual quest: "searching for bitcoin"  - or perhaps some other fitting title.. but you know that nearly no matter what you do (unless you happen to be spoiled brat homer), you are going to get criticized for it.    



It's likely to be way higher than 2% - absent certain scenarios playing out.. (like BTC going to supra $350k in that timeline and also in that regard, it is going to take a while for either the 208-week moving average or even the higher 104-week to get above $50k.. gosh will either of them be over $50k by February 2022..? perhaps the 104-week moving average will get to higher than $50k by February 2022.. but high doubts about the 208-week moving average to get to those kinds of BTC price thresholds within that timeline.

In other words, how can we have much if any clue about attempting to assign a probability value to the next leg, if we do not know how the preceding leg plays out... and how far and how fast (including how many coins are traded) affects how the 208-week moving average and the 104-week moving averages gravitate UP to higher and higher prices (bottom prices).

I had already made various probability assignments regarding what I had thought that the tops of various upside possibilities could be for this cycle  (references to a couple of those threads of thoughts about possible upside scenarios here 1 and here 2), but I also had not put a specific timeline on when the top of this cycle would be reached.... except for asserting that I thought that the cycle could play out anytime between this quarter and the third quarter of 2022.. of course, the more aspects of price that you attempt to assign, whether amount of top or when it is likely to happen creates lower and lower levels of probabilities of certainty .. so I have some troubles attempting to be too specific.. even though I do not tend to have problems with others who seem to be overly specific, and I have even more problems if they want to argue about being certain about their supposed specific scenarios.

Once one of the scenarios plays out (in terms of BTC price moves in the next 4-5 months) then we can be more realistic in assigning probabilities to various downsides scenarios.  Of course, right now as I type this post, our extreme bottoms (for this particular time) are still something like $22,800 (based on 104-week moving average) if presuming a bull market and something like $15,200 (based on 208-week moving average)if presuming a bear market.. so I am not even really seeing either of those bottom numbers crossing over $50k soon.. the bottom numbers move up relatively slowly, and over course, each of those bottom number indicators move up in more steep curves when the actual BTC price goes higher and goes up with volume and is sustained UP.  They are both lagging indicators, but seem to be pretty damned good when trying to assess where extreme BTC price bottoms are currently (as typing) or where BTC price bottoms might realistically be going in the future - whether projecting out 4-5 months or even attempting to project bottoms a year to 4 years out from now.

Explanation

I fully expect homer to see a fin in that river, identify the mutated variant of the color scheme on its scales and nail your exact location by the reflections off said scales!

My Guess is middle earth.



Edit:
Nice get fillippone!

Explanation

Sooo...
What do you figure the chances of Bitcoin ever going below $50k again after January?
I think like 2%..

I think the risk/reward between now and the end of the year is... Outrageous..

Selling now? Hahahahahaha.. No..

Rochehaute viewpoint.

From Google:

Explanation

My sense of a possible deadman's zone building is a wee bit of a SOMA proclamation that attempts to recognize, appreciate and account for historical ways that BTC has behaved in regards to its previous ATHs - the breaking through portion. 

Maybe we could just look at:

early 2013 when BTC broke past $32, it went to $263-ish,
 
late 2013 when BTC broke past $263, it went to $1,163-ish,

early 2017 when BTC broke past $1,163, it went to the mid-$2ks,

late 2020 when BTC broke past $20k, it went to the upper $30ks

There might be some other examples that are not even so much about breaking above previous ATH, but when BTC prices seem to have some high levels of being held down, then the price catches up to where it should have gone.. so the correction down to upper $20ks/lower $30ks is starting to feel like it may well have been one of those periods of overexuberant correction... just a hunch.. just a hunch..

And sure, ImThour could end up being correct, and bitcoin shirks off its old overexuberant bounce backs after going through what seemed to have been overexcuberant corrections.. perhaps? perhaps?

maybe the odds of a $55k to $80k deadman zone are only 30% to 40%, but still that would be pretty high from my perspective... even 20% odds are not really bad, if you are a bitcoin pessimist (aka nocoiner, precoiner) and you have $100k that you have invested in a variety of nonbitcoin investments, and if you could appreciate what I am saying about odds of BTC UPpity performance - including the possible existence of such deadman's zone between $55k and $80k, it might do you some hedging (and even investment portfolio good) to actually put 1% to 10% (that would be anywhere between $1k to $10k out of your $100k investment portfolio) into bitcoin.. merely based on those kinds of deadman's zone probabilities and of course, we also have the existence of the other currently valid BTC price prediction models that also lead some credibility and decent probabilities to both bitcoin's investment thesis but also likely ongoing UPpity BTC price pressures - already mentioned as: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.... and again justifying the guy with $100k of investments to put somewhere between $1k and $10k of his investment portfolio into bitcoin based on those kinds of persistent underlying aspects of bitcoin.


In other words, you got nuttin.

You

1) refuse to read the text of a post that attempts to directly address points raised by your squiggly lines and words of your post.

and 
2) denigrate my post by asserting that it is too long to read

Hard to treat you seriously in such circumstances.




I am not making any prediction you diptwat.  I am bringing questions to your prediction, and asserting that you are failing refusing to account for context including current BTC price prediction models.

Instead of explaining why you choose such context and asserted it to be unbiased
or
explaining why you failed and refuse to account for currently valid BTC price prediction models

You mischaracterize my criticism of your stupid-ass lame post as a prediction and you double down on your dumbassedness.


Nothing wrong with having opinions.  I was largely ONLY asking to 'splain ur lil selfie a wee bit more, including your proclamation of supposed "unbiasness."


I was not judging you.  I was judging your post; however, you subsequent lameass and defensive post is causing me to consider that I may way need to judge you as either being retarded or disingenuine in your interaction regarding your prediction.. including your defensiveness and diversions.

These damn Jehovah Witnesses leaving their silly leaflets and littering up my place.....

 There are so many beautiful places that most of us would never see.  I honestly appreciate the photos you share.  

That wall is from “Mon manège a toi ” restaurant!
At the end of the small bridge, on the right.



https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Restaurant_Review-g1045473-d2168804-Reviews-Mon_Manege_a_Toi-Vresse_The_Ardennes_Wallonia.html

Explanation

Perhaps your lil selfie should make a callening to the BBB?   (Better Bitcoin Bureau).....Surely?

So it was Belgium, I thought Belgium was as flat as Holland.

Mouzaive, Vresse-sur-Semois.


https://goo.gl/maps/JhVbWTj2k7WrCbpZA

I'm guessing not Belgium, somewhere southwest of the alps maybe, like the very beginning of that mountainchain.

Explanation

Quoting for your reference but little image size readjustment