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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5215. (Read 26723655 times)

sr. member
Activity: 334
Merit: 275
Gosh.. you are starting to sound like somac.., Saidasun,  and sure there could be some nuclear bomb ramifications of our ongoing craziness.. because resetting of various financial and governmental systems do not tend to be completely peaceful - even if bitcoin might allow for some mechanisms for even countries to transition out of the various messes that they have been making and doubling down upon their various levels of dumb (corruption?  running off with the wealth from the sinking ship? etc).

Regarding the BTC price going up another $100k from here, that seems pretty likely in either this cycle or the next one.. and to me it seems more likely in this cycle rather than the next one.. but hey, I am not really the kind of guy that puts too many eggs in such exorbitant changes in such a short period of time, even though we have frequently been experiencing such exorbitant changes in bitcoin prices on a fairly regular basis in the past 10 years or so.. so any prudent person should be striving to have some preparation in such possible (probably "likely" is a better word?) exorbitant BTC price scenarios - without necessarily using high levels of leverage that may well not be necessary in order to either become richie or to become less poor (or some variation in between), even though some leverage can be complementary to any kind of investment strategy that attempts to focus on value and fundamentals and production rather than consumption value.
Its troubling times JayJuanGee as I am sure you can agree! I might be that crazy person that buys a bunker but you can bet your buck that it will happen as soon as Bitcoin reaches high enough. I will be sure to post some pictures of my luxury bunker when it does happen.

I am in for the longer run and I do not take out very often but I still check the price of Bitcoin probably like 20 times a day and that is not including what you guys say on here and the frequent posts from our beloved ChartBuddy.

I do not care when 100k happens just know that I will be ready for when it does and that bunker will be mine Wink

Around mid-day yesterday (maybe a couple of hours after your above post, Saidasun), my uncle did acknowledge that he read my earlier texts to him regarding my bet proposals, and he texted me back and said that he just does not like texting back and forth, so he would prefer to meet to discuss.  I sent him a text saying that I will meet whenever he wants.

I was working on a draft text to send my uncle.. but I just cannot bring myself to send it… I suppose that I just do not want to be pushing things (especially when he seems reluctant to respond to text messages) or seeming to be gloating about bitcoin’s to date performance as compared with gold and stock index funds – which should be obvious.. but since I drafted the text (and have not yet sent it to my uncle), I will present the draft here in this thread (and therefore it does not go totally wasted).. Also, I might reconsider and later decide to send some variation of it or to share the information with him in some other form, but I have it in a draft form, at least.

Here it is:

>>>>>>>>>>>
The evidence is just overwhelmingly convincing that BTC has outperformed both gold and the stock market (referring to index funds), and sure of course, the longer the timeline for investing the more evident it is that BTC has outperformed both of those asset classes. 

Furthermore, there is no real evidence or knowledge based convincing logic that the trend is stopping, and really the investment thesis is stronger for bitcoin today than it was in 2014 or 2016 – even though the price is 78x and 40x higher respectively.

Let’s take those two timelines as examples.  First is if you had bought $25 per week of bitcoin starting in our late 2016 conversation on the topic, which is 5 years.  Your bitcoin investment would have been $6,525, the value of your bitcoin would be about $70k (about 2.1 BTC accumulated), and the percentage of increase would have been around 10x.  In that same period, Gold and stock index funds would have only been $8,432 (up 29.23%) and $9,255 (up 41.84%) respectively.  Here’s a link to that information.

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2016-07-20&sda=5_years&f=weekly&d=5_years&ac=1000&c=true

Another timeline would be if you had bought $25 per week of bitcoin starting from when I first sent you $10 worth of bitcoin in late 2014, which is 5 years.  Your bitcoin investment would have been $9,150, the value of your bitcoin would be about $325k (a bit more than 10 BTC accumulated), and the percentage of increase would have been around 34.5x.  In that same period, Gold and stock index funds would have only been $12,352 (up 35%) and $14,491 (up 58.38%) respectively. Here’s a link to that information.

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2014-07-20&sda=7_years&f=weekly&d=7_years&ac=2500&c=true

Either way, investing in bitcoin has been a great investment and there is nothing saying that the party is over.  Bitcoin has and will likely continue to outperform any stock index fund or gold in the coming 4 years or more.. and probably any other hard or soft asset in your investment portfolio.<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Gloating is never a good look but he was pretty insistent himself that stocks were the better option right? I must say that meeting to discuss a bet does not sound like a friendly little wager Cheesy and sounds more like lets measure who's balls are bigger. If you do meet and discuss terms be sure to keep us up to date because if you do not gloat I will gloat on your behalf.
legendary
Activity: 3962
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I see on my phone that my uncle "read" my texts from yesterday (about a few hours after I sent them), but I still have not heard from him.  

I have been thinking of possible variations of the bet too.. in order that the bet might keep running, so maybe we figure out an amount that is comfortable, but we keep the bet running for something like 5 years, and at the end of each calendar year we measure to see where we are at in terms of comparing bitcoin to the DJI... ...

So maybe we start with $5 or even $50 at the end of 2021, and then each year we multiply the bet (but we continue to use the beginning of 2021 as our starting reference point for the price (percentage) to beat), which is showing our long term conviction starting from a base point (which I feel that would be my giving him a ~30% headstart, too.. and I do not have a problem with that)...

So maybe the bet doubles or triples each year, so it would look like either the 2x, 3x, 5x or perhaps some other multiple and sure the below examples show starting from $5 but maybe add a zero (which would be starting from $50) or use some other starting number ($1, $20, $100 or whatever) to customize the starting point and the multiples to individual "friendly" finances while creating a kind of magnification that emphasizes an importance in thinking about the longer term rather than getting all worked up about short-term nonsense, when in fact my uncle and I are both considering our lil selfies as long term investors, but for some reason, yesterday he seemed to have been putting so much emphasis in short-term nonsense just to make his comparative point and supposedly that his investment in stocks was "beating" bitcoin (at least from his way of framing the matter).

                                2x                                 3x                               5x                                       xxx
End of 2021               $5                                $5                               $5                                      $5 (or some other amount)
End of 2022               $10                              $15                              $25                                    $xxx
End of 2023               $20                              $45                              $125                                  $xxx
End of 2024               $40                              $135                            $625                                  $xxx
End of 2025               $80                              $405                            $3,125                               $xxx

The whole matter of betting or putting a bit of stake behind assertions can still be friendly.. but putting some money where your mouth is can be helpful to showing true conviction, and of course, if the bet amounts are high, there there could be some reason to make sure that any of us would save for the event that we might lose the bet.. and no one of us should be putting all our eggs in one basket, even if we may well be willing to bet in accordance with one direction or another turning out in our favor.
I do not know your uncle but I have found that when it comes to putting their money where their mouth is people do not do it. I doubt he is going to take the $5 bet and will probably shrug it off saying that would be silly. If you were to follow the structure you have outlined above you would probably bankrupt your uncle swiftly Cheesy

I am probably as bullish as you could find with Bitcoin but I agree with your point of not putting all your eggs in one basket. I have tried to invest in various different outlets and not just Bitcoin and no I am not talking about shitcoins. I'm talking about stocks and Bitcoin but Bitcoin has for a fact been the money maker if we look at the profit over the years. I have not taken my investment out of Bitcoin yet but if I did I would be up more than 500% and I definitely cannot say the same for the stocks that I have invested in.

Around mid-day yesterday (maybe a couple of hours after your above post, Saidasun), my uncle did acknowledge that he read my earlier texts to him regarding my bet proposals, and he texted me back and said that he just does not like texting back and forth, so he would prefer to meet to discuss.  I sent him a text saying that I will meet whenever he wants.

I was working on a draft text to send my uncle.. but I just cannot bring myself to send it… I suppose that I just do not want to be pushing things (especially when he seems reluctant to respond to text messages) or seeming to be gloating about bitcoin’s to date performance as compared with gold and stock index funds – which should be obvious.. but since I drafted the text (and have not yet sent it to my uncle), I will present the draft here in this thread (and therefore it does not go totally wasted).. Also, I might reconsider and later decide to send some variation of it or to share the information with him in some other form, but I have it in a draft form, at least.

Here it is:

>>>>>>>>>>>
The evidence is just overwhelmingly convincing that BTC has outperformed both gold and the stock market (referring to index funds), and sure of course, the longer the timeline for investing the more evident it is that BTC has outperformed both of those asset classes.  

Furthermore, there is no real evidence or knowledge based convincing logic that the trend is stopping, and really the investment thesis is stronger for bitcoin today than it was in 2014 or 2016 – even though the price is 78x and 40x higher respectively.

Let’s take those two timelines as examples.  First is if you had bought $25 per week of bitcoin starting in our late 2016 conversation on the topic, which is 5 years.  Your bitcoin investment would have been $6,525, the value of your bitcoin would be about $70k (about 2.1 BTC accumulated), and the percentage of increase would have been around 10x.  In that same period, Gold and stock index funds would have only been $8,432 (up 29.23%) and $9,255 (up 41.84%) respectively.  Here’s a link to that information.

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2016-07-20&sda=5_years&f=weekly&d=5_years&ac=1000&c=true

Another timeline would be if you had bought $25 per week of bitcoin starting from when I first sent you $10 worth of bitcoin in late 2014, which is 5 7 years.  Your bitcoin investment would have been $9,150, the value of your bitcoin would be about $325k (a bit more than 10 BTC accumulated), and the percentage of increase would have been around 34.5x.  In that same period, Gold and stock index funds would have only been $12,352 (up 35%) and $14,491 (up 58.38%) respectively. Here’s a link to that information.

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2014-07-20&sda=7_years&f=weekly&d=7_years&ac=2500&c=true

Either way, investing in bitcoin has been a great investment and there is nothing saying that the party is over.  Bitcoin has and will likely continue to outperform any stock index fund or gold in the coming 4 years or more.. and probably any other hard or soft asset in your investment portfolio.<<<<<<<<<<<<<
sr. member
Activity: 370
Merit: 451
I am new to the wall observer thread and I thought of something that could be fun as an introduction. You guys can decide when I next sell my Bitcoin. I will be reinvesting do not worry! Give me a number at which I should sell at and I will then reinvest when the next dip comes.

Sell ASAP.. (so around our current price of $29,750 or maybe $29,800, if you can get it) and reinvest around $19,666.. that was the high for the last period (would have been December 2017)..

For sure, 99.5% guaranteed, we are going below $19,666, but just to be safe and not too greedy, buy back at $19,666.

This is investment advice.

Bad Bot! So Mean!

(Could have at least given him the hot tip about SHIB/Rocket/Moon)
legendary
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sr. member
Activity: 297
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I am new to the wall observer thread and I thought of something that could be fun as an introduction. You guys can decide when I next sell my Bitcoin. I will be reinvesting do not worry! Give me a number at which I should sell at and I will then reinvest when the next dip comes.

Sell ASAP.. (so around our current price of $29,750 or maybe $29,800, if you can get it) and reinvest around $19,666.. that was the high for the last period (would have been December 2017)..

For sure, 99.5% guaranteed, we are going below $19,666, but just to be safe and not too greedy, buy back at $19,666.

This is investment advice.

took the words right out of my mouth.

The usual deal though is to sell then buy back higher.
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I am new to the wall observer thread and I thought of something that could be fun as an introduction. You guys can decide when I next sell my Bitcoin. I will be reinvesting do not worry! Give me a number at which I should sell at and I will then reinvest when the next dip comes.

Sell ASAP.. (so around our current price of $29,750 or maybe $29,800, if you can get it) and reinvest around $19,666.. that was the high for the last period (would have been December 2017)..

For sure, 99.5% guaranteed, we are going below $19,666, but just to be safe and not too greedy, buy back at $19,666.

This is investment advice.
full member
Activity: 134
Merit: 147
I am new to the wall observer thread and I thought of something that could be fun as an introduction. You guys can decide when I next sell my Bitcoin. I will be reinvesting do not worry! Give me a number at which I should sell at and I will then reinvest when the next dip comes.
legendary
Activity: 2758
Merit: 13660
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Space Cowboys ... That was a decent movie.

Yes..I liked that movie as well..thought it a good role for Daniel Craig      Think there was a couple of sequels...maybe without Craig...but I havent seen em

youre thinking of Cowboys and Aliens, different movie. both were fun.

@jjg  I thought they preferred the title of Wizards rather than Sorcerers  

Wizards.. another cool movie.



Boys I went nostalgic this eve

Space Jam with LeBron Smiley Wink
legendary
Activity: 4354
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?
Space Cowboys ... That was a decent movie.

Yes..I liked that movie as well..thought it a good role for Daniel Craig      Think there was a couple of sequels...maybe without Craig...but I havent seen em

youre thinking of Cowboys and Aliens, different movie. both were fun.

@jjg  I thought they preferred the title of Wizards rather than Sorcerers  

Wizards.. another cool movie.
hero member
Activity: 1848
Merit: 640
*Brute force will solve any Bitcoin problem*
@therationalroot
One would say it'll soon be time for the sentiment to turn. #Bitcoin 

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1417577364247257088?s=21

@therationalroot
2 months of mostly extreme fear while fundamentals have never been better!


https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1417577369242636288?s=21

🙏🏻


FOMO index wen? :-] hoot
legendary
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legendary
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#1 VIP Crypto Casino
@therationalroot
One would say it'll soon be time for the sentiment to turn. #Bitcoin 

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1417577364247257088?s=21

@therationalroot
2 months of mostly extreme fear while fundamentals have never been better!


https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1417577369242636288?s=21

🙏🏻
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
@jjg  I thought they preferred the title of Wizards rather than Sorcerers  


You say tomato, I say potato



You say potato, I say tomato




tomato, potato





potato, tomato















legendary
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legendary
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Space Cowboys ... That was a decent movie.

As for predicting the future of bitcoin prices, mine are overly long-term and conservative. It's going up. It's going to $100k, then to $500k, then to $1m. But the time scale is much longer, like a few years or decades even, to the point some people think it's bearish.

Yes..I liked that movie as well..thought it a good role for Daniel Craig      Think there was a couple of sequels...maybe without Craig...but I havent seen em


About pricing...I agree with you that the long term outlook still seems an asymmetrical bet to me

marcus had some nice thoughts about synthesising some different data points into a price indicator...sad to say I have only fiddled with his concept in the most rudimentary fashion...nothing remotely conclusive yet

I was looking at a 4x theory in halving vs price resistance but I think I just have cognitive bias unfortunately  ie  250-1k-4k-16k-54k ect    Perhaps with those numbers adjusted a bit...dunno

Kinda in a lets just wait and see what happens mode honestly

Wondering if there will be an attempt at dumping on Dorseys and Musks head tomorrow at the B conference...again just have to wait and see

Also thought there was going to be something from the SEC on the 27th or 28th...maybe got that wrong...might be something in August   heck..why not both

My best guesstimate is something will start to change between September 6th and October 4th


@jjg  I thought they preferred the title of Wizards rather than Sorcerers 
legendary
Activity: 2702
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Free spirit
morning charts

dead cats keep bouncing...you would think they would run out of cats soonish

#dyor



Does anyone , the WO experts  Smiley,  have any free custom built indicator for support & resistance so that we don't have to manually find Support & resistance all the time  ?



full member
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They made me this way..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j61KACwuAjM

Jackass Forever - Official Trailer (2021) Johnny Knoxville, Steve-O



Jackass 4 is finaly coming Cheesy This is what the world needs now hehe
legendary
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legendary
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The Concierge of Crypto
Space Cowboys ... That was a decent movie.

As for predicting the future of bitcoin prices, mine are overly long-term and conservative. It's going up. It's going to $100k, then to $500k, then to $1m. But the time scale is much longer, like a few years or decades even, to the point some people think it's bearish.
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