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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5300. (Read 26710237 times)

legendary
Activity: 2856
Merit: 1520
Bitcoin Legal Tender Countries: 2 of 206
So It was hot as hell last night and I decided to go outside, naked, to cool of (I live in the countryside). It so happened that I walked in to my neighbors old corral and what I thought was just high grass was also nettles. I stung my legs, butt, and Helmuth and the glockenspiel, I have had a trying night.

just learned the name is "Johnson". amateurs.  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 4839
Addicted to HoDLing!
Imagine selling now if you didn't at $60k  Cheesy

Yeah, my cousin just ordered a 75-inch TV with the money he got by selling corn a week ago.

I've warned him that this will soon be the most expensive TV set he has ever bought in his life. He didn't listen to me.
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 6194
Meh.
It's quite sad that Elon tweeting about bitcoin and tesla accepting bitcoin for their cars had a bigger impact on price than a country turning it into real currency, like wtf.
legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 13618
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Sunny Sunday bro’s…
Languishing bitcoin value.
When do we strap in?


legendary
Activity: 2856
Merit: 1520
Bitcoin Legal Tender Countries: 2 of 206
There will be no taping, pulling or rubbing of neither my Helmuth nor my glockenspiel, thank you.
But thanks for your input.  Grin

Edit, What's doc leaves?

Not sure about your country but in England they are a broad-leaved plant that grows near nettles that contain a chemical that soothes the pain and itching that nettles cause (the 'doc' is short for 'doctor', I believe). Hmm. Just looked and it's "dock" leaves and apparently they don't actually contain anything, it's just the rubbing action that helps. Well shit, there's another piece of my childhood gone Sad

I guess you could make some nettle tea. Brings a new meaning to teabagging.

Edit: Apparently alkali substances can help with the nettle stings.

Looked it up.
Have seen it countless of times but never new it's name, apparently it's "Tomtskräppa" in Swedish, weird name.
It sems to have a weird name in many languishes, in German it's "Stumpfblättriger Ampfer", I bet no Germans in here knew that.

native speaker says it is "Sauerampfer". but without a pic it can be almost anything.  Roll Eyes

EDIT: no it's not. Arriemoller was right. it is "Rumex obtusifolius" in German "Stumpfblättriger Ampfer". but looks to me the same as the other one.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2050
Merit: 1184
Never selling






PlanB
@100trillionUSD

Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down.

There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1406577006230245376?s=21

I hope he is right and I think he will be, but, he must be thinking somewhere in his mind that his model may no longer be working.

I suspect that we just need to clear all this Chinese shit out. Their miners need to be completely shutdown, or moved before this thing settles. God knows how much longer that will take.

I'm also wondering what happens with the Greyscale trust, I heard that 650million will be unlocked from there next month. I don't know if that is BTC or USD.

If things go bad, I wouldn't be surprised to see 15k even if only for a very short time. Markets are worried right now, if a sell of happens BTC will go down too.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 9709
#1 VIP Crypto Casino






PlanB
@100trillionUSD

Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down.

There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1406577006230245376?s=21
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
copper member
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2890
Imagine selling now if you didn't at $60k  Cheesy

Joke on you... that's still 653.89% up of my average buy...  Wink
legendary
Activity: 2186
Merit: 1213
So, weekend dump for ants? More cheap coins to MS.

Its kind of amzing really, every weekend has a dump. Might just be for ants, but a dump none the less.

Also, haven't heard if MS have bought yet, I wonder if they are entering slower this time and perhaps closer to the lows.

I started trading weekend dumps last weekend for the first time. Dont worry it might change now to a different pattern Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 6194
Meh.
Imagine selling now if you didn't at $60k  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 13618
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
So, weekend dump for ants? More cheap coins to MS.

Its kind of amzing really, every weekend has a dump. Might just be for ants, but a dump none the less.

Also, haven't heard if MS have bought yet, I wonder if they are entering slower this time and perhaps closer to the lows.

I only know I went out for a morning swim… when getting back inside checked the price and saw 1k lower sigh ….

Would hate to pay cheap corn tomo and hate it more if it’s to the hands of a BSV’er

Thinking out loud, wtf am I doing  Undecided Undecided
legendary
Activity: 2050
Merit: 1184
Never selling
So, weekend dump for ants? More cheap coins to MS.

Its kind of amzing really, every weekend has a dump. Might just be for ants, but a dump none the less.

Also, haven't heard if MS have bought yet, I wonder if they are entering slower this time and perhaps closer to the lows.
legendary
Activity: 1891
Merit: 3096
All good things to those who wait
So, weekend dump for ants? More cheap coins to MS.
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
I have sent an email to the "Wallet of Satoshi" support asking if there's a way to get "permanent receive address" which can take more than one payment, and also how long these Lightning addresses last. Waiting for reply.

Not directly. But there are additional services that enable very similar functionality such as lnurl-pay. One example: https://lnbits.com/lnurlp/48, "The link or QR code is fixed, but each time it is read by a compatible wallet a new QR code is issued by the service."
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 13618
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
But damn… worst case scenario with 15k bottom…..

Rooting for the bottom is in situation  Grin
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1538
yes
Ok, this is a longer post with pictures to address a long term thought. The summary is that in a worst case scenario, a big new ATH may take a while but that the downside is limited from here. I stress that the below is hypothetical and just to entertain some thoughts.

First, a number of charts indicating the idea that the market is not in bear market territory (yet) but 'in between' bull and bear. Time will tell whether the coin flips to bear or remains in bull.

Will $35k prove a correction in a bull market or is it the precursor of a bear market?

This is the big gamble at this point. The Great Decide.

Other than DCA strategies, I would not recommend a novice investor to take out a large position at this point. First, let the market tell us what the further direction will be (bull or bear).

The 'in between' narrative is illustrated in the next few charts, taken from glassnode.

1. Mayer Multiple


The Mayer Multiple had a nice peak and went down. But it hasn't truly bottomed like in previous great bottoms. Not a true long term buy signal at this moment.

2. MVRV Ratio


MVRV ratio not giving a long term buy signal. It's in between.

3. NVT Price


NVT is signalling a bottom. However, please note that this chart only starts from July 2017 and, looking at the 2018 bear, a bottom signal may also be a precursor to an ensuing bear market. NVT cannot be used as a sole indicator on the Great Decide.

4. VWAP Ratio


VWAP in the 2017 bull run showed a nice jagged pattern within a defined band all the way to the top. In 2021, the band may of course be higher but the comparison with 2017 gives that indefinite feeling again. The Great Decide.

5. Price Models


Looking at the price models. touching the purple line was the big bottom in a cycle. The purple line stands at $10,xxx  Shocked But that would also be the theoretical line in the sand. Notice that true bear markets saw the blue line crossing the yellow line downwards. We are not there yet. It would take many months before this potential signal could alarm us of bear market trouble.

In short, no true signal from this chart (yet) other than painting potential min and max $$ prices.

6. Hypothetical projection - repeat 2018 bear


This leads me to a projection. The projection is mainly based on the idea of averages. The averages can tell us where Bitcoin is on a binary scale: overvalued or undervalued. Assuming that Bitcoin's true value is still increasing, investing in Bitcoin is still a good choice on the long term. But timing your entry right can mean the difference between a big win and a massive win.

The idea of the chart is that big bottoms in a cycle occur in an area far below the purple line. The purple line (in the 3Day chart) is currently at $20,000.

We have seen that the Bitcoin markets have plenty of speculative money in them + derivative trading. What goes up big time, can also go down big time. Especially in times of fear.

The assumption underlying the chart is that the current financial markets move along until something breaks. That's how it usually goes. A bank going bust, a large company is marked junk. It could be anything that suddenly breaks the markets. Stonks slide, yields go down and everything is sold in order to obtain cold hard cash.

The FED and other CBs step in and 'save the day' by printing even more money. After the panic subsides, market participants jump back in with both hands on the waves of yet another Great Reflation.

I take this as the default scenario.

The chart is essentially about extending the moving averages based on the 2018-2019 bear market (copy/paste). Extend and duration will probably not match the future; it's just an 'what if' exploration. For instance, the March 2020 panic will probably remain an outlier.

The chart gives me confidence:

  • even in a major downturn - a Bitcoin bear market and/or the GFC 202x occurring - price is not expected go lower than approx 50% from here
  • with nothing fundamentally changed to the long term Bitcoin growth drivers, buying a bit at this price point is fine
  • this is the worst case scenario for me. Working through this period will probably take less time
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1540
English weather sucks, realllllly bad.....
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