Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5361. (Read 26707418 times)

Explanation

El salvador
Brazil
Paraguay
Panama

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1402006002661216262?s=20

....


Pump is inevitable imho, dump is weird atm...

Will turn around soon-ish I guess

the next Pump is imminent 

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1401998145433841669

I do hate in bitcoin, the sudden drops while news is SUPER bullish... though it is what it is... we need to deal with it.

Sometimes i have the feeling like Michael S. plays the good cop and Elon M. the bad one... I think that there is an agreement between them.

Because they can MSM it hard enough to keep it down.

Once again I will use JJG's favorite word cryptocurrency.  All coins are not cover like stocks are.  So guys like MUSk can verbally manipulate all cryptocurrency with out the punishment of government agencies.  Can you imagine

 MUSK ,ZUCKERBERG ,BEZOS TALKING  about Facebook stock Amazon stock and of  course Tesla stock like they have with crypto coins  (sorry JJG)  they want BTC to be a push over along with the other coins.

They want to move and shift the coin market at will.

This is bad and good news.

Bad news they could win and fuck this up bigly
Good news they feel the need to do it which means :

wait for it:

They are afraid.

buy dip and hodl
repeat buy dip and hodl
do not use an exchange with 100x or 50x leverage.

I cash every coin I mine now to fiat and BTC
The only exception to that is BTC
Still stacking BTC.

To JJG I apologize for using that term multiple times but they are trying to use it to hurt the industry and to help themselves.

I surely do not claim to be any kind of expert on the topic, suchmoon.  Since we are in a public thread, I was largely attempting to respond to some of your seemingly dire proclamations regarding the idea that Saylor/MSTR was putting itself in peril in terms of its behaviors of issuing debt instruments (and you seemed to also be implying that Saylor/MSTR might be going beyond acceptable limits of the law.. .so I mentioned that I believe that they likely have good counsel on the matter).

Regarding the possible dire financial angle that you are suggesting in this follow-up, I am not even sure if I understand the difference between the various kinds of financial instruments that MSTR had been issuing over the past year.

I thought that the first two financial instruments that were issued around the end of 2020 were forms of debt that had to be paid back after 5 years, and those two financial instruments requested up to a certain amount of investors, and ended up getting oversubscribed and ended up rising to the level of around $1 billion each (perhaps a bit less than $1billion each).   

From my memory, the first debt instrument had an interest rate of 0.75% and the second one had a zero% interest rate. 

Upon glancing at the third one for $400 million, it does not appear to be a debt instrument, but instead like just issuing stock in the company.. so they would not have to pay that back and the investors would merely be taking risk on the company in terms of performance and value of any of those securities that they were to buy... presuming that they could be traded on the market..

So as far as I can tell MSTR ONLY has to pay back the first two debt instruments, and presuming that they have not agreed to payments along the way, those two would come due 5 years after they issue.. let's just say slightly less than $1billion each.

I am not exactly sure about their average costs per BTC in connection with MSTR's purchases in connection with each of the times that they issued the debt, but it seems that one was around $10k and the other was around $20k, but around a month ago, Saylor had announced that MSTR had an average BTC purchase price of around $24k per BTC for all of their BTC holdings.

So your scenario of BTC lingering at $30k for 5 years (or let's say another 4.5 years when those notes would come due) does not even put MSTR in the negative regarding their use of debt for those purchases. 

Over nearly the past year that Saylor/MSTR has been in the press, we have learned that MSTR had been a company that had pretty high level (relatively speaking) of cash reserves, including around $10 million to $30million in monthly cashflows from profits of its company sales.  Surely, it is the bailiwick of MSTR to try to figure out how they want to play their corn, to analyze their business in terms of cash reserves, cashflow from sales and bitcoin value and how to manage such assets including which ones to sell first, if they were to sell any to service their debts.  So, sure they are free to sell corn, if they feel that they need to in order to service their debts in the event that they do not have cash/or abilities to service those debts with other moneys or assets that they might have.

Of course, they would have a BIGGER problem if BTC prices were to go below their average purchase price of $24k per BTC and they were forced to sell their BTC at a loss or at time that is NOT of their own choosing (presuming that the BTC price does not significantly rise and just continues to spiral down for the next 4.5 years).  So, in that regard, MSTR (and Saylor et al) are making a speculative bet that the value of the bitcoin that they purchased with that debt is going to be higher than the price that they paid for the bitcoin with that debt (plus the 0.75% interest on the first one, and the second one was issued without interest, as I already mentioned).

Saylor, MSTR et al seems to be assessing the situation of their buying BTC is NOT considerably risky, even though of course, there is risk with any investment or business strategy that any company might take in terms of how to use their assets and their resources and what kinds of bets to make towards the future.  Of course, company's bet in differing ways, and some companies end up profiting more than other from their speculative bets and some companies end up losing their asses to their speculative bets.  Time will tell whether Saylor / MSTR is able to profit from their use of debt to buy BTC as they had calculated/speculated that they should be able to do.

Explanation

Hey! Stop polluting the Wob with images of some random moron making a straining push-out-a-wet fart face.
And the idiot is not even making the correct Wob hand sign ffs....

On the Saylor money raising event: if money can be loaned at near zero interest, the value of assets nears infinity. Saylor understands this. I think his choices will turn out great over time. More upside to be had in this trick than running a normal business. I’m sure Musk knows this too; I’d not be surprised if Musk has Tesla adding to its BTC position during these times.

On LN: I’ve been using it to obtain payouts from LN powered games. In essence it’s about obtaining tickets to participate in daily raffles. The more tickets, presumably the higher chance to win Sats. It’s quite addicting I must say. I’d like to think that every Sats earned will become worth $1 one day. I specifically reserved 1M Sats in LN for that purpose  all subject to a future boating accident of course (it happens to all of us it seems) 

Its paid by the dev out of ad revenue. Sustainable thus and it brings new people into the LN network.

This weekend the dev had a promotional event. LN raffles each hour instead of daily. He processed 13k LN transactions with an average multiples fee lower than Bitcoin Cash 

I’m not sold on LN yet but it’s impressive how it got here from zero in 2018 until where we are now.

On El Salvador: laws can be changed for the worse as quickly as for the better. I think the news is a non event but it’s a proper signal: be early or be left out.

We already see the shift from Bitcoin investing being a career risk to not Bitcoin investing as a career risk. The same will happen for true sources of money. Once money creation centres (central banks and perhaps large countries holding Bitcoin reserves) start joining the fray, it becomes truly interesting. For now, we’ll have to do with the precursor of companies like MStrategy lending money for essentially nothing plowing it into still the best asymmetric bet out there.

All of this takes time. But we are at a good spot in time. There’s no way back, and the only way is forward. Fast or slow but that is where honey badger is taking us.

I've finally gotten a Bitcoin Lightning Network wallet working on my phone and filled it with BTC for spending.

It is a lot easier than it was in the past. I use BLW, you need to choose a channel operator and pay them for your channel since you're not running one yourself but it's about the cost of a BTC transaction.

I use it on the Moon plugin to buy things on any website that accepts Visa.

What i feel is being way under reported is that El Salvador's current official currency is ... ... USD. So if they adopt BTC as a legal tender it will be in parallel, and in direct competition to USD over there. US printers going brrrr bring inflation to US, but at least the newly printed coupons stay in US, now think of all of those countries who pegged their currencies to USD. They see printers in US going Brrrr devaluating their own currencies, but can't Brrr anything themselves, so it's only a downside to them. They only get inflation without seeing new money.

Think we all know how historically countries that challenged USD dominance (petrodollar) fared. Wouldn't be surprised to see US exporting some of its "freedom" to El Salvador to pinch the trend before other countries even consider doing the same. Things are heating up fast.

Explanation

I invest in bitcoin mostly for ideological reasons, but have to say that since Dec 2017 (last ATH), bitcoin underperformed FAANG and almost all of those stocks with the exception of FB outperformed btc by a factor of about 2X. MSFT also outperformed during this time period.
It has NOT been 2X a year since Dec 2017, no sireee.

This might hurt our/your feelings, but it is what it is..and some people in bitcoin are starting to get on my nerves, especially Max Keiser...what a douche.

Realistic? Bitcoin going down to 3 digits is realistic? MUahahahahaha... hahahaha.... 

I was about to come post here to say that the lightning network is about to get it's "kicked the hornets nest, and the swarm is headed towards us." moment.

But the Salvadorians have already been using it.  They are not getting stated.  They are USING it.  It's why the president is making it legal tender.  I am sure use will go up in El Salvador, but where we are going to see the load is coming in from Paraguay, Columbia, Venezuela, Mexico, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, India and all the other countries that either do tons of remittance or have a majorly effed up currency or both.

But as to what you've read about the lightning network etc.  Have you used it much?  I have done a lot of use of it both as nodes and from wallets.  You are right it's not polished.  But it works pretty damn good.  Better than Bitcoin in the day.  That's the crazy part.  The settlement is INSTANT.  When it hits your wallet the transaction is OVER. And the fees are still fractions of a cent usually.  And it is rare that I cannot get a payment to go through.

The reality is users who come into custodial wallets benefit from the trusted pool they are in.  I think this is why Wallet of Satoshi is so popular in E.S.  If you and me both use it and I want to send you money?  There is no chance of it failing really.  Even the non custodial good UX wallets like Breez, Phoenix, and Muun will work this way too since those services default you to their super connected node.  So they work 99.9% of the time too.  It really is when Joe with his own node with 6 channels, and Frank with the same thing want to trade and they either can't find a path to each other, or the fees on the route they can find are kind of high.

But that's not going to be lots of people.

I think where we have the most risk is these centralized, and semi-centralized wallets can become targets, or points of failure.  WoS type wallets in particular.  They are an unregulated bank basically if I understand it correctly.

Can you imagine what is coming if these lightning wallets actually work as we expect them to?  If people can use the most pristine asset the world has ever know transactionally, and basically skip over all other payment networks  Katie bar the effing door.

I almost can't believe it, but it's not just Western Union that should be worried right now.  (It's too late for them to worry... they make buggy whips)

It's Visa.  I did not see that coming.  But it just might be.

Of course.. no need to either fuck around with shitcoins nor talk about possible hopenings of them here... so go take those kinds of nonsense ponderings about the possibility of value in trash..  blah blah blah...  somewhere else.  Oh yeah, I just found a can in that trash, and I could recycle it.. .. blah blah blah..

i.e... "subjective value is value too" blah blah blah..

We (royal of course) are not concerned about the truth of the matter asserted.... anything but bitcoin is shit, in case you were wondering. #nohomo


I remember seeing that video a while back... ... it is even funnier now.. upon watching it again...


Yes... I understand that peeps are quite reluctant to spend $150-ish  whoops, they went up in price $200-ish for a hardware wallet, such as a Trezor Model T - and yeah.. I see that they are now claiming to support 1,200 shitcoins.. so that could end up causing too many temptations to hold onto shitcoins.. so kind of understandable, that.  Maybe I am just confused by paper wallets and traumatized by some of my previous electrum experiences when I was trying to figure out if I could claim my bcash through electrum in 2017.. so surely sometimes experiential limitations might inform choices.. and even show my own needs to learn and experiment with other wallets to have some better knowledge and comforts... like wallets that allow for transacting through lightning network, too  (more of a "me" thing rather than considering the situation of your kind of coiner friend).  

By the way would be good to get your friend into DCA investing.. fucking powerful to have DCA investing.. and hardly even notice how powerful it tends to become.  $20 a week or whatever.. or just lump sum with $80 per month to save on some fees..even though I am kind of more inclined towards weekly purchases.. and Swan bitcoin would surely be good for that.. if the amounts are relatively small, then once a year or so, send from Swan to cold storage wallet... I know.. more involved, but still.. fuck the laziness of just ONLY sitting on BTC... and your friend has already shown that he needs something to keep him busy as long as he knows that the rules are not to fuck around with selling, just accumulation and HODL only...

Yes.. I know that you are suggesting that your friend could have had 5 BTC over the past 5 years, but the power of DCA shows that $20 per week over the past 5 years would have gotten the guy about 1.87BTC..  which would have been $5,220 invested.

I am going to presume that if we multiply by three to $60 per week, then maybe your friend could budget 3x higher than my $20 starting suggestion.. especially since he is more experienced, and he seems to potentially have a higher budget. Over the past 5 years, $60 per week would have generated 12.25x in profits on an investment of $15,660 that would have added up to the accumulation of about 5.6 BTC.  

Sure so, even if that $60 per week DCA method is not getting to the 30x returns that you are saying that he could have had gotten (presuming lump sum front-loading investing), it is still a very good return.. and somewhat passive.  Note: I am going to admit that lump sum investing can surely be better than DCA in terms of actual front-loading price performance, but you are saying that your friend is already doing a certain amount of front-end lump-summing with his $6k.  Furthermore, if someone such as your friend is actually somewhat burnt out on the whole investing in "crypto" situation, he might be more able to swallow the medicine of practical investing (rather than gambling) with DCA-ing that is kind of more under the radar in terms of just ongoing investing of relatively small amounts that he should be able to afford without any major sacrifices in his expected ongoing lifestyle.

@ XhomerX

You asked about the fees at the ATM for the Binance card, the Binance fee is 0.9% on shopping as well as withdrawals and then the conversion rate is displayed on the ATM. You then get the choice of debiting in EUR or SEK and as far as I can tell there is no difference, but I choose SEK anyway since that's the advice given here.

Not yours either.