Definitely think this (hopefully temporary) dip has highlighted the somewhat overzealous predictions of late. Some of the alt predictions that were thrown around especially were crazy. Some of those alts have literally dropped right back down to lower than they were 3 years ago.
With regards to king Bitcoin, I can definitely see a 75K and hopefully a 100K bitcoin later this year. Maybe more.
But 288K or 500K within the year? I doubt it. The 50K and 60K markers just seemed to have been too much of a struggle to quickly get over for something like that I think.
Obviously the long term trend is going up but we are literally at mid Feb prices again and that is with 2 months of quite bullish news.
I hope we continue to follow the Stock 2 flow Plan B model but honestly I'd just be happy if we can reach the likes of 250K-500K by say 2028-2029.
I think eventually his model will fail as it seems too good to be true.
If Saylor and Musk hadn't come along that model would probably already be out of the window by now. That's not to say Bitcoin doesn't go up and the longterm isn't bullish, it's just I think there are several coincidences that sometimes make it appear why a specific model works.
I hope I'm wrong though.
You likely are wrong, and I am not even saying that we need to have a higher top or that anything like a higher top or even a top above $65k is guaranteed because we should all realize that nothing is guaranteed in bitcoinlandia..
Stock to flow is merely a model, and tops may or may not deviate from the projections of such model, and might even deviate considerably without even breaking the model, and so many folks like to speculate about the model breaking, when it can just be adjusted to account for the new data.
Furthermore, any deviation from the model's trajectories could be to the downside or to the upside, and merely because we have had a wee bit of problemas getting above $50k and $60k hardly is even a blip on the radar or hardly even worth writing home about of supposedly hindering the upside potential of $288k to $500k or the overshooting possibilities of $600k to $1.5 million.. and I am not even saying that any of this is going to happen with any certainty, just saying it is still considerably in the cards for these considerable upsides to happen and even in this particular cycle.
Even if maybe PlanB might be marketing his stock to flow model a bit much and even making some dumb (overly bullish) statements in regards to his model, bitcoin gives hardly no shits about his marketing, his statements or even how eerily accurate his model continues to be in spite of his seemingly ongoingly talking it up.
Definitely think this (hopefully temporary) dip has highlighted the somewhat overzealous predictions of late. Some of the alt predictions that were thrown around especially were crazy. Some of those alts have literally dropped right back down to lower than they were 3 years ago.
With regards to king Bitcoin, I can definitely see a 75K and hopefully a 100K bitcoin later this year. Maybe more.
But 288K or 500K within the year? I doubt it. The 50K and 60K markers just seemed to have been too much of a struggle to quickly get over for something like that I think.
Obviously the long term trend is going up but we are literally at mid Feb prices again and that is with 2 months of quite bullish news.
I hope we continue to follow the Stock 2 flow Plan B model but honestly I'd just be happy if we can reach the likes of 250K-500K by say 2028-2029.
I think eventually his model will fail as it seems too good to be true.
If Saylor and Musk hadn't come along that model would probably already be out of the window by now. That's not to say Bitcoin doesn't go up and the longterm isn't bullish, it's just I think there are several coincidences that sometimes make it appear why a specific model works.
I hope I'm wrong though.
Plan C: a spring-early summer dip (not lower than 40K), slight upward starting in Aug (EDIT: maybe July?), bull restarting in Sept, accelerating into NOv ETF approval.
Bull culmination in Dec 2021-march 2022 at $150-300K
Even this seemingly SOMA scenario (of a double top and surely ongoingly refined by you Biodom) is not even close to being contrary to the stock to flow model.. and sure, sounds like a possibility that could happen, possibly.