I just spent the last of my remaining fiat to buy the dip.
~snip~
Ever since I got into bitcoin
(late 2013- as many already have heard a few times), my philosophy and approach has been to attempt to
never run out of fiat to be able to buy on dips. There have been a few times (especially during extensive BTC price dippenings or unexpected dips, such as around January 2015, March 2017, September 2017, November 2018, March 2020, and perhaps a few other times, in which aspects of my philosophy had been put to considerable challenges based on actual facts and BTC price movements). This is NOT even close to one of those times to one of those times of running out (or low) on fiat.
In fact, this current situation is nearly the exact opposite of halving too much fiat.. (similar to late 2017 run up to $19,666) but in the past couple of years, I have tweaked my system in what seems to be even a better way that I am more psychologically comfortable with where I am at, as compared to late 2017. For some reason in late 2017, I was more anxious (relatively speaking) to buy every BTC price dip, but currently, I feel less shits than I did at that time, which I believe reflects a higher degree of comfort that I have with my current place.
On the other hand, it seems to me (which is hardly even close to an original thought), that we are not quite close to the "blow off top" level of BTC price appreciation that we were in late 2017 - even though in late 2017, I had not really accepted that we were at a blow off top either, and maybe that was part of the reason for my ongoing urge to buy on relatively small BTC price dippenings. In that respect, I am kind of wondering if my level of anxiety might increase with greater BTC price appreciation, and if so, how much of a greater BTC price appreciation is going to be required to cause me to start to feel some anxieties regarding where we are at, or even if I start considering that I have too many BTC, perhaps? Will that be $100k? $288k? $500k, $1million? $1.5million? or some other BTC price point? (assuming that we might get to some, if not all, of those numbers in this cycle).
By the way, I am starting to consider that outlying tops of this particular cycle could stretch out to as far as late 2022 based on some of the supercycle and related nonsense that is being propagated that could well contribute to a longer dragging out of this particular cycle.. perhaps? perhaps? and hopefully, I continue to be able to take whatever measures that I need to in order to hardly give any shits regarding how BTC prices perform in the next 6 to 20 months - even including if we all end up getting surprised as fuck and turn into whining little bitches because the top for this cycle ends up being $64,895...
I'm happy your strategy is working out for you.
My trading strategy is somewhat different. I prefer to stay mostly in BTC. I only keep a small amount of my total stash on any exchange.
Lately, I have been selling just enough to cover my monthly expenses. By doing so, I try to sell at the local monthly high, and if I have any fiat left, I try to rebuy if it dips. This time I can happily admit that I was wrong, I didn't expect us to drop below $60k.
When/if the price starts going parabolic on the log scale, I will most likely revisit my trading strategy.
On the other part, I agree with you that we haven't seen the top yet. I wouldn't be surprised if the price is going sideways or even going down in the short term, before taking off to new heights later this year. We have had 6 monthly candles in the green. Going up forever without any monthly red candle seems unlikely.
