Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5629. (Read 26607104 times)

Nah, even if the stonks should dump they probably won't dump as much as bitcoin traditionally does during the bear year.

exactly.

so the presence of instiutional investors (not present in 2014 and 2018), plus the fact that both stocks and btc have risen in parallel for the last 12 months, means nothing to you? ok, each to his own.

With so many institutionals in now, they may attempt to dampen volatility, holding down tops, and holding up dumps..
They want less volatility and I wouldn’t doubt manipulate it so..

I.e. Might hold up the next bear season..

I can see both sides to this. Of course you are right historically speaking but the stock market and Bitcoin are now more intertwined than before.
Like I said: I think it's risky.

Then let me remind you of 2014 and 2018.
Bitcoin moves in roughly four year cycles governed by the roughly four year halvings. Next bear year will be 2022, probably starting late 2021.
This is totally uncoupled from the stockmarket.

There sometimes can develop a bit of a delusion when it comes to describing history, so yeah there was a downfall of price in 2014 that got us down into the mid $100s in January 2015, and then almost all of 2015 was flat (or down) in the mid $200s for the most part, and in the end of August 2015, there was even a dip back down to $200 and even through about half of October 2015, we were having some struggles of getting above $250 - so there was not much if any confidence until then end of October/early November to have the price rally to $504 and thereby correct into the $300s and $400s until the end of May 2016....

Of course, there were signs of optimism at the end of 2015, but really the market recovery for even people who may have been engaging in decent DCA practices (and or attempts to buy on dips and HODL) might not have recovered very convincingly until late 2016 or so when BTC prices clearly started getting to $700 and above (even though we did not stay there for too long relatively speaking).


Surely there was a considerable potential to really accumulate BTC during that 2015-ish time, and your (kevin) post goes to show that even in 2015 there was a decent amount of shitcoin distractions, and there was a lot of lacking in confidence in BTC that was likely peaking towards the end of 2015, and the little rally of October/November 2015 did not even bring great confidence since it took until late May 2016 for the BTC price to get back above $500... I certainly gained a decent amount of restored confidence from the October/November 2015 rally and the end of May 2016 rally, yet gosh, I will even say that the August 2016 shenanigans on Bitfinex (with the supposed hackening of 119k BTC) caused additional pessimism, including the FUDsters coming out in great force.

And, maybe in the end, we can look back and say, we should have been accumulating BTC during that time, so there were definitely no exact clear signs that BTC was the right way to go, but surely anyone could have still established a BTC portfolio that was 1% to 10% of the value of their quasi-liquid investments and ended up doing quite well based on really modest and even the most conservative (presuming 1%)of investments into BTC would have ended up performing quite well with BTC being known, even then, to be an asymmetric bet, and so many people failed/refused to even accomplish the bare minimum (again referring to a mere 1% allocation to BTC) to take advantage of the asymmetric bet.


Sure there are ways to frame the timeline in shorter periods - such as going from the 2014 continued downfall in BTC prices through 2015, but still I would still calculate the time period as closer to 3 years in terms of really  having some confidence of being out of the mess - even though clearly in retrospect, we can measure the bullmarket starting from October 2015 and lasting a bit more than 2 years, but we did not really know for sure that we were in a bull market for a considerable time.. and some people took longer than others to come to such a "bull market" assessment.

Similar with the 2018 to 2020 correction.. can really be unclear when the bull market started back up, exactly, but in retrospect, it seems quite apparent by mid-May 2019 that we should have had decent signs that we were in a bull market, even though there was a further dip in March 2020 to cause confusion about that already existing "bull market" status - that continues to be the one that we are in and not really clear about how long such bull market is going to last... but still even though we are in a bull market and have been in a bull market, there have been some people who have both been confused by our status or even feeling that their portfolios were underwater because their investment costs were greater than the BTC price for a decent amount of time  (referring to our continuing to go below $10k and even the uncertainties about supra $10k being sustainable as late as September 2020 during the last challenge (or so it seems) to $10k).



I agree with you, kevin, that using tops to measure where you are at are going to cause your supposed reserves to shrink down to nothing because there was a kind of fail refusal to account for volatility and including accounting for possible bottoms (or that the bottoms might last for a decent amount of time).



Agree on these points.

Knew the coinbase IPO would be shaking up the markets today but it seemed to have spiked the price just when it opened. See the spike 2 hours ago on the bitstamp chart:


But it has recovered now to a new ATH at $64.4k.
Expect it to rise once it settles in on wallstreet what BTC truly means to businesses around the world.

dont see any kind of scenario where bitcoin goes seriously bearish while stocks rise, or even stay stable.

if stocks fall, then yes i could see btc fall, but thats about it.

the idea that stocks are going to be some kind of hedge wont cut it for me.

Me neither.

Don't understand your reply, please clarify.

I suppose that I can leave the subjective portion regarding what "works well" to you and to your own devices, because of course any strategy should be tailored to individual circumstances including both finances and psychology, and so for sure, as a general approach, I recommend buying on the way down and selling on the way up rather than buying on the way up - except, as I mentioned the DCA matter that would be buying all the time no matter the price based on cashflow coming in.. however, to be holding back on investing and then injecting value when the BTC price goes up seems a bit off and even conflicting in terms of attempting to hold money to buy on dips.


buying on the way up is NOT the same thing as buying to replace.. .but whatever.

I had some BTC sales in the mid $58ks that were based on purchasing some services, so I ended up plugging in that value to my system to buy back at $54k or so when my buy back orders were originally set in the $53ks.  I also removed some BTC sell orders around those same prices (I believe in the mid $59ks).  Anyhow, my BTC sales to purchase services caused my BTC buy back orders to have additional buy backs that were $1k higher but removed some of the BTC sales that were otherwise there.  The buy backs have not executed since then because the BTC price went up, but I guess my point is that the sales were largely plugged into my system and actually to create more value in my accounts to be able to set those buy back orders, I removed some buy back orders in the $9ks.  

Seems to me that I am implementing a kind of "replace" theory too, but admittedly it is quite a bit less strong than my "replace" practices in the 2014 to 2016 period.  Back then, I would add additional value to my whole system because I was more concerned about accumulating BTC, so I would always error on the side of accumulating, so if I partook in any sales, then I would go overboard to make sure that I replaced any BTC that I sold.. or even double or triple the amount that I bought back in order to compensate for the amount sold.

Once I got into greater profits and started to psychologically feel that I had accumulated enough BTC or way more than enough BTC, then I became less obsessed about whether I was accumulating more BTC or even concerned about whether I was replacing those BTC exactly, and my above example does show that I am currently plugging in values of sales, but likely my practice is mostly aimed at maintaining the values within my system - and maybe removing some of my lower level buy orders rather than concerns about whether I have enough BTC or not.  So there might even be inclinations of liquidation that are coming through with my actions as well, so practices are likely going to play out quite differently depending on what stage a guy perceives himself to be whether accumulation, maintenance or liquidation.. and those stages are likely NOT exactly absolutes, yet in that regard, even though we have been around BTC a similar amount or time, you seem to be way more in an accumulation framework - and I am in more of a maintenance and even gravitation towards liquidation framework.

I cannot completely judge you based on where you are at because I do not know enough of you personal financial situation to appreciate if you had refused to accumulate enough BTC at earlier stages or merely if you might have been unable to accumulate enough BTC at earlier stages based on cashflow or whatever, and surely I have already disclosed, several times, that I had a pretty damned decent investment portfolio in late 2013 when I got into BTC, so my ability to accumulate between 2013 and 2016 was greatly enhanced by being able to transfer a decent amount of value into BTC in 2014 - and even to largely over accumulate (in terms of my targets of value that I already had in my investment portfolio) in 2015 and 2016.  

So, if you did not have as much value that you could directly inject into BTC in those earlier days that you were into BTC, then sure it makes sense that you would still be in a largely accumulation of BTC phase.  Before 2013, I had spent about 25 years accumulating the investment portfolio that I had by the time late 2013 came about, and even if my accumulation of an investment portfolio was only lowly successful compared to subsequent BTC performance, I still would expect that even a brand new person to BTC in 2013/2014 would still take a decent number of years (likely way less than 25) in order to accumulate an investment portfolio - even if they have the advantages of BTC price appreciation to considerably short-cut some of the relatively long timeline of 25 years of prior non-btc accumulations.


Yes.. of course, if you are in BTC accumulation stage (still) then you would not be ready, yet, to reduce your BTC stash.  


Well if you are posting some of your ideas in a public thread, then anyone, including yours truly, can chime in and to make any previously discussed topic their bees wax... you fuck (nohomo)

By the way, in typing this post, I come to realize some likely reasons why you have been so obsessed about "never selling your BTC" blah blah blah, and even ineptly analyzing my situation based on your own situation is that since you are likely continuing to be so damned steeped in BTC accumulation, you are likely having trouble relating to some folks (including yours truly) who have long transitioned out of BTC accumulation mode, so you are seeming to have some difficulties relating to persons, such as yours truly, who may well not  
have to worry about BTC accumulation and are even starting to gravitate towards liquidation rather than maintenance.. so someone who is in those later stages are starting to be a couple times removed from your own BTC accumulation focused situation.

Sure, no problema, not trying to get to judgie here, and hopefully you and a lot of other BTC accumulators are going to be able to relate to getting to either maintenance or liquidation, and surely, I am hardly even suggesting that any BTC accumulator should be attempting to rush the accumulation process because sometimes attempting to rush matters too much will cause delays or will cause the engagement of too risky of strategies, such as gambling, yet one great thing about bitcoin, even though the cost of purchase continues to go up, there has been some decent advantages for anyone who has been able to accumulate some decent stash at lower levels, even though the current ongoing purchases seem quite expensive, but those earlier purchases will continue to appreciate in value.. so long as you do not get too dumb and try to gamble by selling them, when you have not even yet reached your accumulation targets.

a sell popped at 64.2. nice. keep choo chooing baby

My man in Havana sends me this screenshot of the tokenised Greymarket of COIN US:

580 USD per shares means almost 200 BLN of market cap.
YUGE.




Expect some rollercoaster, on COIN, but BTC also.
Buy the rumor, sell the news is the favorite whale past-time.

I confirm, I find it funny how they released progressively their token... Anyone knows who hold the 65 billions left to dump? I guess they already dumped a lot to buy btc.

It's really old gangster nasty... but still, new dogs don't know old tricks .

It's a chopper baby

Can we please wait to dump those "shares" before telling the truth? Thank you very much.

Sounds risky to me.

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

• Near negative interest rates. (Pure negative interest rates on wealth in the likes of The Netherlands now)
• Gold doing nothing
• Central banks printing money like there is no tomorrow
• Central banks claiming there is no inflation
• Car price increases of at least 5% per annum due to pathetic environment rules.
• Property price increases in much of the west running at 5-10% minimum per year
• Increase in income taxes and/or stagnation of tax bands that is not keeping up to date with inflation
• 3-5% minimum increase in property taxes per annum

Clearly, Bitcoin has already won.
Seems like central banks have already given up.