Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5817. (Read 26710323 times)

So...now that the bitcoin price has some ties to the stock market due to ETFs and companies getting involved it may react at times to the same things the market reacts to in the short/medium term.

One thing I have been keeping my eye on that most people aren't talking about is this:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-to-end-covid-19-capital-break-it-gave-wall-street-banks/ar-BB1eL21A

Back around September things got a bit crazy.

Every bank must have on hand at the end of the night, X amount of dollars to cover their accounts. In order to ensure that they comply with this regulation there is a simple loaning structure where if a bank is a bit low that night they just borrow it to cover the amount.

One day it happened that many banks did not have enough funds and thus the interest for the loans shot up over 10%. An unprecedented amount, usually it's less than 1%.

The Fed stepped in and ended the regulation temporarily. Banks did not need to keep reserves to cover their accounts until an undisclosed future date.

That date has arrived. At the end of the month the change expires and banks have to go back to how they were.

This is making the market nervous...what will happen on April 1st? Nobody knows. Will the banks have enough to cover their accounts?

Any rally will likely be postponed until April 1st as everyone waits.

Biden is coming in like a knight in shining armor promising to blow $3 trillion on some bullshit so bitcoin isn't going away any time soon.

Are my eyes tricking me or are stonks tanking, too?

I must say that I agree with those who feel something is not right about these regular dips. I think the chances are 60/40 for a manipulative/normal trading. The first obvious thing is that the same pattern repeats for 8 hours around the same time each day for the last 2 weeks. Judging from the time, they are caused by some individual/entity living in the central parts of USA. It could be a single whale with 50K+ coins, or an OTC desk with multiple orders of selling between 55K and 60K. I can also see the ladder on the ask book on Coinbase for some time up to 70K. This is caused by one individual who also contributed for the 3K wall that existed up to 60K before the first breach. And probably have market sold thousands BTC's around that price.

But what bothers me is that some individual hurried to sell just before the arriving of the stimi checks, as if being afraid the price may go up. And it looks that he is not happy that the price manages to stay above 53K and keeps putting pressure with small but timely sells just to make the hour candles red. Today he hurried up again after the good news from Tesla to stop the pump. I know that the things may only look that way and it could be just the high frequence trading effect. Still, there are a few people owning >50K BTC's and also being quite hostile to Bitcoin. Today for example it became clear that Tesla will not accept the forks of Bitcoin. And this is a rusty pipe in the asses of two morons, whose names are like shit and not worthy to be mentioned here. One may ask what is the financial interest in these dumps? Honestly, I have no idea. Why some morons sold BTC's in the past and bought forks that are no longer recognized and their price is next to 0? Why Willy Woo included in his charts twice false data of 30K BTC's moved to Gemini, and other similar false news that he tweeted about? So, yeah, there are few more enemies who may hold the price for a day or two, but soon everything will return to normal and the mass adoption will lead to much higher prices in the next months. Meanwhile the exchanges reserve is continuing to decrease and other indicators show that hodlers sell much less than in the beginning of this bull run. So now the bears are in the pathetic position to try to break 53K just to be stopped at 52K   It is like the amateurs football team playing with professionals counting only the times they kicked the ball  

Witnessing a short-lived flash crash down to $53k. Climbing back up slowly... 

Oops someone's will have to update his tat... 

I think I got your lame-ass whiney point sufficiently enough.

In terms of the 15%, I am NOT referring to some historical point that you want to bring up in order to argue some other point that I did not make.  

I am referring to the BTC price where we are at currently, at this moment as I type, which is about $53,800, and that is NOT quite yet a 15% correction.... a 15% correction would be around $52,515 ($61,782 x 0.85) if I am doing my maths correctly.. and sure I do not claim to be any kind of math and sciences genius/wizard so if I am wrong with my maths to the extent that my variance might matter to whatever point that is being made, then correct me..

Just try to stay on topic, if you are able to, dieselmeister... you seemingly ongoingly whiney and distracted biatch...

 Stop doing whatever it is you're doing!  You're making Bitcoin fall!

 edit: it looks like that line you drew might be support again.  Seems to be oscillating over it.
 edit2: shit.  Anyway, I wont be able to watch - I have to go to work

I doubt that we are very far apart in the way that we are considering this matter, AlcoHoDL, but it still does remain a quite interesting topic because it is somewhat concrete in the sense of both being relevant to this thread and also a question that each one of us should be attempting to figure out in terms of what are we going to do if "it" or some variation of "it" happens whether that be "it" at 2x of current price or the variations of "it" that put additional multiples upon lower and higher expectations of the range.

Sure, if some of us have already been through bubbles in the past, we might be better prepared in terms of both our expectations but also in terms of our already having had established a decent HODL stash (and profit levels) that gives us more options.

Maybe even if I might assert that there is only a 35% chance of 2x from here (which brings us to around $110k), but once the $110k happens or we get close to the $110k, then the higher numbers ranging anywhere between $111k and $1.5million become more and more likely because we had ended up crossing some of the higher thresholds that needed to get through in order to allow for some of the higher numbers to become more possible, so in the end, there does not end up being a great difference between reaching some of the higher thresholds once some of the lower thresholds had been achieved.

Still sticking to my earlier point about not counting my chickens before they are hatched, perhaps I have a bit of a character flaw, but I do still like to consider my plans around the ongoing rising of the 208-week moving average rather than getting too worked up about price peaks that may or may not happen, and such price peaks really do not cause me to do anything other than what is already in my plans to structure various sales on the way up on an ongoing basis, but the rising of the 208-week moving average seems to motivate me in terms of my ongoing increasing budget in terms of what I am able to cash out on a regular basis in terms of wherever that number happens to be.  Currently, the 208-week moving average is at about $10,200 and it seems to be going up at about $200 per day week[edited whoops].

Sure for some folks the 208-week moving average is NOT going to be enough for them, and they are going to get all worked up about tops but still NOT know what to do because they do not want to be prematurely cashing out into fiat, but for me, the 208-week moving average provides a guilt free amount that I can cash out no matter what the price... and sure, if I were to cash out (still talking theory here because I have not really been cashing out in any kind of meaningful or material way), I can still be authorizing myself an amount to cash out (whether it is for the month, quarter or year), and then attempt to time a BTC price peak for the cashing out, but not get too worked up either, if the peaks are not met (so long as I am not cashing out more than the authorized amount and I am not cashing out when the BTC price might be at or below the 208-week moving average.  So in that sense, the 208-week moving average becomes a very comfortable place because it is ongoingly and continuing to move up and it is moving up in dollars in amounts that are increasingly higher and higher giving me more and more assurance about the various richie cushions that I feel that I have.

Regarding other peeps.. I have tentatively come to a conclusion that it is quite likely that many normies are going to need to go through at least a couple of bitcoin cycles before they would have been able to either accumulate enough bitcoin or to have been  in the game for a long enough time that the BTC price appreciates enough to both give them a high enough cushion or at least to have transformed from normie status to regular richie status and then to not giving a fuck richie status which surely does seem to be better to get to the not giving a fuck richie status rather than being in either of the the lower two rungs.. which also might not be a bad place to be but getting to the actual not giving a fuck richie status does seem to be a more comfortable place that many of us want to achieve and aspire to and then the greatest problems become regarding how to manage and maintain the funds to keep the status rather than worrying about whether we are going to reach such status.

By the way, I do appreciate that there could be some guys who really struggle with cashflow issues, and it may well take them more than 2, 3 or 4 cycles to actually get to either regular richie status or not giving a fuck richie status.  I doubt that some of the matters can be rushed especially if a guy might have only $20 to $50 per month that he would be able to put into bitcoin, and then maybe over the years, he has to continue to try to figure out if there are ways to either cut down spending or to increase income in order to get the monthly bitcoin allocation to higher levels.  So, yeah, sometimes there may be some real world factors that make it really difficult to really acquire a meaningful and material position in bitcoin that transforms a regular guy to either richie status or to not giving a fuck richie status.

Yeah... I updated it... but we are hanging on my a fingernail.

Not the fact that Tesla takes Bitcoin. That were old news. The fact, that they have an own node and hold the coins. That were the awesome news.

How many percent from 58k to 42k did we correct? If I am correct, that's more than 15%. But maybe you math is another than mine.

All the Bla and you missing my point.

Yes, i admit.
But i posted the same lines yesterday, and also said they're not precise and i didn't adjust them for longer time.
However, i doubt that we are going to test the strong support at the time. Still missing buying pressure, though.

you're resistance is incorrect, we never went through it. Price currently at support line. On chain analysis however says that solid support is at at 47k level.

Yes, I do believe that Bitcoin current price doubling in 2021 is a very probable outcome indeed, maybe even bearish for many WOers. I would say that reaching (and maintaining) a price level above $100k by the end of 2021 would be an outstanding performance, and will surely become life-changing for many of us.

It's getting so good it's almost scary!  

Almost certainly your line is NOT correct.

It couldn't be.

It couldn't be.


I am not going to believe it for even one minute..


until after it has already happened.. then maybe?



Maybe I will say:  "What just happened?"  Maybe?

Jesus those of you in the US session are a bunch of scardy girly man. What's with all the selling all the time?

Scroll to the up 

Share your lines, damnit!

Eek.  If my line is right... we are in for some rough waters...

*edit* On the daily we are still good... barely.

expiration week fuckery only explanation for this. they'll cover these shorts after they load up on calls for next months expiration day