My take on this is that bitcoin is a chance for humanity as a whole to transition to a better system.
It would be something akin to a cruel joke if this is somehow curtailed after 12 years in the making.
That said, the trajectory is unclear, the current patch of following the "predicted" graph notwithstanding.
Everybody expect a straight path at a 45 degree angle to 150-200K, then a typical bear market to, say, 60K.
However, we might get something that not many are prepared for-a brief and violent correction from 60-80K to 35-40K, then flat, then a rise to above 288K, maybe even above 500k.
The difference: earlier correction, then rise to higher than expected.
Personally, I am quite comfortable with a 52-60K range. In my book, it could continue for months, but how likely is this? Not very.
How bitcoin looks like in a higher inflation background? We expect it to be very bullish, albeit gold is declining despite apparently higher inflation expectations.
Does it show that inflation would be followed by a stronger deflation pulse? If so, then why oil is rising? Maybe gold is being de-monetized (in favor of btc) and gold's movement is irrelevant?
Interesting nugget: I was checking some RE around the country and it is an amazing picture. In some spots things are stable, while in others there is an incredible bump up in the last 6-12 mo. COVID effect (escape from the cities)?
What happens if you buy now at that 1.5-2X bumped price? Most likely it would slowly go down in the next 10-20 years, which makes buying in those places and prices a non-starter, hence someone cannot even exchange btc proceeds into something stable aka real estate (at favorable locations). Of course , you can buy if you want to be there, but you are bound to lose money on many of the current "deals", imho.
There will always be wafflings in regards to what the best investment(s) might be, and even including whether some other assets are over priced - and whether you also might be able to get some assets at a deal in such a way that they will either hold their value or appreciate - but in the end, there still does not seem to be any better investment than bitcoin and that should be the punchline idea - and since the vast majority of peeps (even the most bullish of bitcoin bulls) are not really suggesting to go into bitcoin 100%, the question remains about what allocation to put into bitcoin versus other allocations and whether to attempt to time any crash that might come (and if it is worth it to attempt to time such local top - including the uncertainties about whether it might crash now, at $80k, at $150k at $500k or some other number that may as well just be pulled out of a hat in terms of being able to try to figure it out with any kind of accuracy.
Anyone feeling some gitters about bitcoin, pull some value out (well that is if you actually already accumulated to your goal). Anyone feeling that they need to or want to diversify into other investments such as real estate, sure maybe they need to look for underhyped areas, if there is such a thing. Buying a house to live in, too, may well have some differing considerations as compared to buying various properties for investment purposes.. and surely we should realize by now that the physicality of that kind of asset for investment purposes has a certain number of drawbacks that bitcoin does not have, so in that regard, bitcoin does have some advantages in terms of being a more efficient investment vehicle than real estate - even though surely efficiencies is not going to be the ONLY consideration.
[...]
I have recalled several occasions driving by myself in a fairly spacious luxury car (think of a medium-sized SUV) and then parking in the parking lot next to someone who has a tiny car, but they are fitting a family of 7 (including dog) into a car that really should only sit 4 at most (think of a vw beetle or some small car that might be slightly larger)... and sure, I feel a bit guilty in my thinking that they would fit much more nicely in my car, and I could fit more easily into their car as one person rather than 7, but I still do not exchange cars with them, even though I already realize that it should be quite obvious that I am much better off financially than them, and I am not sure whether they might have more bonding over their ridiculous experiences of fitting so many in their car and hanging out in such proximity that would be quite uncomfortable for me.
[...]
If you did swap your car with theirs, you could be called a truly religious person, not just in name, but in substance, at least as far as Christianity is concerned. Someone once said:
"If you have two shirts and your neighbour has none, you are not religious."Although I'm an atheist, so I don't recognize any god whose teachings I should dogmatically follow, I can understand and sympathize with the situation you're describing above. The world, by its very nature, is an extremely cruel place, and one cannot survive and keep his/her sanity without having to live with, and tolerate such huge imbalances of wants, needs, and ability (or lack thereof) to fulfill them. Communism has attempted to solve the above problem, but we've all seen the consequences... IMHO, in the end, it all comes down to human nature, which is a selfish nature. Whether we like it or not, we are all programmed to survive at all costs.
So, don't feel guilty about not swapping your car with theirs. This is the expected behaviour. If you wish to help the world, just help yourself first (as you've already said), and then you'll be in a better position to help others if you so wish.
Damn, Sunday afternoon, no coffee, and here I am blabbering again...
Got to visit my dear cousin, niece & nephew today (will need to sneak past COVID-19 movement restrictions, hopefully I won't get stopped/fined).
Corn is not doing so well (relatively speaking—are we greedy or what?), the Stimulus Check pump was not even for ants, if it even materialized... Not to worry though, the real pump will come soon, and it won't be for ants. Math & science.
Have you even considered the effect of swapping a nice big car for a dinky, worn out rattletrap? First of all, if you offered them your car, they might see you as a meddlesome, self-absorbed goody two-shoes (which might be close to the truth) and tell you to fuck off. Or if they accepted, they might end up hating you for it. And you would end up kicking yourself for doing such a stupid thing -- look at this smelly little rust-bucket with bad shocks I gave my nice SUV away for!
Let's be real, you ain't giving your car away.
My point was not really even seriously considering giving away my car - beyond the academic sort of going through the thought process - unless I was on my deathbed or something and/or feeling really generous for some particular reason.
I was just mentioning that kind of circumstance in terms of one that I frequently come across that causes me to recognize differing levels of wealth that might sometimes come out in transportation but also could come out in other ways, as well - like in what neighborhoods any of us might shop, and sometimes if we go to a more poor neighborhood, we also might find some folks who are spending a bit of time haggling over what seems to be quite small amounts of money..
And, surely, if I might go to some poorer neighborhoods, I am also thinking that some of these folks might even be considering themselves in a kind of luxury situation just having a car to be able to use and to get their group around.... so yeah, for me, it is largely just an academic exercise, and maybe sometimes there could end up coming a practical matter that arises out of the situation. Sometimes when I go to a car dealer and I ask how much they are going to give me for my trade in, there could be a bit of offense in that, and instead of giving satisfaction to the car dealer, there could be some desire to just give my car away to someone who needs it more - and maybe not easy to judge whether they deserve it more - because it might not take very long before they might have my car run to the ground and in as bad of shape as their current wreck of a car.
