So, I am not going to proclaim any kind of support is solid - until maybe we are much above such support including that it is seeming quite likely that 4 digits are a thing of the past.. but $20k and sub $20k might seem difficult to reach but we could not proclaim sub $20k to be impossible to reach... now could we?
Well we could ... but we won't ... yet!
Likewise, I need us to consolidate above $40k.
That said, you are comparing very different quarters.
A quarter in a bear market vs a quarter in a bull market. A quarter before the halving vs a quarter after the halving.
Every day that goes by, $20k becomes less likely to visit ever again.
As for $10k, that's only a nocoiner's wet dream.
I understand where we are at, but I am still NOT going to take anything for granted, including sub-$20k.
Like I already said, it seems that the odds are quite against sub $20k (let's say within the next 3-6 months), but they could be as high as 10% or even higher than that, and 10%-ish is nothing to sneeze at.
We could look at UP too... what are the odds for $50k to get broken in the next 3-6 months or $100k in the next 3-6 months? Are we even asserting 50% for the lower one and/or 40% for the higher one? I don't know because I get a bit nervous attempting to assign too many specific to expectations even though assigning such values can still be a good exercise to hone in what any of us really believes to be likely and how likely we might believe those price directions might be (including giving some kind of framework to the level of realism that exists in our own thinking in terms of BTC price performance expectations).
The particular uptrend that we seem to be in currently is also interesting because it seems way too early to determine whether we might experience largely straight UPpity for the coming 3-18 months or we might experience a kind of double top UPpity that could arguably take longer to play out - even up to 24 months - even though seemingly unusual to drag out so long - but whatever, part of the points that I am trying to make includes that I don't want to presume to many scenarios even if we might assign relatively higher values over one direction or degree (or timing) than other various outcomes - including that the bull market could end up playing out quite a bit less bullish than expected - even though we are witnessing a whole hell-of-a-lot of signs that this particular bullmarket could end up overshooting rather than undershooting the vast majority of our expectations... wait and see... wait and see..
It's not like many of us following this thread in the past few years or more have not taken adequate measures to pee pare our lil selfies for UPpity.,. so even some of the BTC skeptics who have been following this thread for the past few years have a decent amount of UPpity preparations - even though some of them do seem to complain, even while bitcoin prices are going UPpity because they have likely prepared too little for UP.. hahahahahhahaha.. whatever, there is ONLY so much that can be done and each of us has to be able to live with our own decisions in that regard.
