Congrats to my fellow WOers on the 30K breach.
Now can someone explain to me wtf is going on??
In TA terms we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves. Not dangerously so - currently we are sitting on the target price for late March 2021. So we could easily and comfortably have a 3 month correction at any time.
The real question is whether something underlying has changed. We saw the early breakout in the first half of 2019 when we went parabolic out of cycle and peaked out at $13,880 in June 2019. Ultimately that was not sustainable (and culminated in the crash of March 2020) but it showed a baby bull that was surprisingly powerful.
Now at the end of 2020 and starting into 2021 we see an adolescent bull that is extremely strong. The key difference between 2017 and 2021 is the start of inflow of institutional money. Like it or not, this is not a retail driven rally. Grayscale has bought more coins than miners can produce over the past 3 months. *This* is the reason for the rally.
The flipside is the price is much more vulnerable to regulatory interference. If Grayscale has regulatory problems, the price will be adversely affected. Putting regulatory issues aside, we can ask ourselves - where to from here?
We are all passengers on the rocket and I am watching for signs we are breaking upwards away from current models. For example a breakout that would invalidate moon math. At this stage it is far too early to say that something has changed, and right now we are still just a bit frothy which could just end up being a 2019 style overshoot. But there is a clear risk that this could end in a melt up.
This is potentially a dangerous time. People on this forum could see, and lose, life changing fortunes. Have a plan motherfuckers and stick to it. If you don’t have a plan now, make one now and write it down and then execute it. Your plan needs to include the possibility that Bitcoin goes beyond levels you have dreamed about - don’t sell yourself short.
