Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 6527.

Biodom

legendary

Activity: 4004

Merit: 4656

Quote from: fillippone on January 01, 2021, 11:44:02 AM

Quote from: bitserve on January 01, 2021, 11:31:55 AM

After seeing all the diverse Bitcoin price predictions being made for 2021 ranging up to the several hundreds K's I have remembered about those futures markets that opened in 2017/18 like CME and Bakkt and most of us haven't even touched... And I am thinking? Is it worth exploring? Could we buy some options for our crazy expectations or use them to hedge some? How much is a $200K Bitcoin option for Q4 worth?

How do we check that? Is anyone here currently playing with that kind of futures?

I think to remember it was @fillippone who sometime in the past tried to explain some of the nuances about it... maybe even there is a thread about that subject?

I have the feeling that maybe the time to learn more about it has come...

Ah! Yes,
There is more than a thread to check what is the forward price implied by futures markets and options:

Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!
Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask!

My suggestion, is also to check those forwards against the Stock to Flow price forecasted for end of 2021.
You can check it at www.digitalik.net/BTC

nice info!
small comments:
1. Deribit is for non-US, for US only LedgerX
2. The gap between bid and ask is huge on ledgerX, I am surprised anything gets traded at all.
3. ledger X options are not very convenient: for later months they are in a HUGE gaps (like 25, 50, 75, 100K)
4. digitalik does not have 'www', ~~so the link (for me) does not go there if used as posted.~~ (EDIT: @fillippone already changed this)

fillippone

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 17063

Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

Quote from: bitserve on January 01, 2021, 11:31:55 AM

After seeing all the diverse Bitcoin price predictions being made for 2021 ranging up to the several hundreds K's I have remembered about those futures markets that opened in 2017/18 like CME and Bakkt and most of us haven't even touched... And I am thinking? Is it worth exploring? Could we buy some options for our crazy expectations or use them to hedge some? How much is a $200K Bitcoin option for Q4 worth?

How do we check that? Is anyone here currently playing with that kind of futures?

I think to remember it was @fillippone who sometime in the past tried to explain some of the nuances about it... maybe even there is a thread about that subject?

I have the feeling that maybe the time to learn more about it has come...

Ah! Yes,
There is more than a thread to check what is the forward price implied by futures markets and options:

Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!
Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask!

My suggestion, is also to check those forwards against the Stock to Flow price forecasted for end of 2021.
You can check it at digitalik.net/BTC

Edit: corrected digitalik link as biodom pointed out (as I typed it out of memory)

bitserve

legendary

Activity: 1932

Merit: 1610

Self made HODLER ✓

After seeing all the diverse Bitcoin price predictions being made for 2021 ranging up to the several hundreds K's I have remembered about those futures markets that opened in 2017/18 like CME and Bakkt and most of us haven't even touched... And I am thinking? Is it worth exploring? Could we buy some options for our crazy expectations or use them to hedge some? How much is a $200K Bitcoin option for Q4 worth?

How do we check that? Is anyone here currently playing with that kind of futures?

I think to remember it was @fillippone who sometime in the past tried to explain some of the nuances about it... maybe even there is a thread about that subject?

I have the feeling that maybe the time to learn more about it has come...

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Oh yeah and...

hv_

legendary

Activity: 2548

Merit: 1055

Clean Code and Scale

Quote from: Hueristic on January 01, 2021, 10:49:07 AM

Quote from: Millionero on January 01, 2021, 02:28:28 AM

The Treasury Department is pulling a fast one. The shit is going down.
This new regulation will cripple crypto.
Best explanation I've seen so far https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

After you're through celebrating the New Year and goggling at helicopter memes, please comment here:
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

After this rule gets finalized, there will be no going back.

Not the only thing incoming 2021

Real onchain use for lots of things - in transparent original BitCoin way might be only save here.

No protection on number go up shills

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: serveria.com on January 01, 2021, 06:35:11 AM

Institutional investors have strong hands. Get used to it. Cool

They don't give up hard assets when they can just print and dole out fake ones.

d_eddie

legendary

Activity: 2520

Merit: 3038

And these. Heed Millionero's call, boys!

Quote from: Millionero on January 01, 2021, 04:39:09 AM

On top of the wallet rule now only three days from final adoption, FinCEN just announced ANOTHER rule.
https://www.coindesk.com/fincen-foreign-crypto-exchange-disclosure-rule
With a bare three weeks before leaving office, it's impossible to have a public comment period that complies with the Administrative Procedure Act.
Treasury hasn't even provided a timeline yet.
We only know that this new midnight rule will have an illegally short comment period, just like the last one.
The fact that the procedure is done illegaly won't prevent the rule from being enforced. This is a standard administrative procedure whereby government agencies like Treasury write regulations into law without actually having to go to Congress. Once these new regulations go into effect, overturning them involves a politically difficult congressional procedure; the incoming administration can't simply rescind rules that went on the books before they came to office.
In other words, we're fucked.
There's still time to comment on the wallet rule, though
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

Meanwhile Mnuchin expects us crypto people to party instead of paying attention.

Quote from: Millionero on January 01, 2021, 04:52:47 AM

For some ideas to make your comments effective, I found Jake Chervinsky and Ben Davenport helpful
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1340135041746300932
https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

d_eddie

legendary

Activity: 2520

Merit: 3038

Quote from: Millionero on January 01, 2021, 02:28:28 AM

The Treasury Department is pulling a fast one. The shit is going down.
This new regulation will cripple crypto.
Best explanation I've seen so far https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

After you're through celebrating the New Year and goggling at helicopter memes, please comment here:
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

After this rule gets finalized, there will be no going back.

Can't merit, I'm out.

+1 WOsMerit.

Leave an articulate comment there, bros! I already did.

Torque

legendary

Activity: 3794

Merit: 5474

Quote from: Millionero on January 01, 2021, 02:28:28 AM

The Treasury Department is pulling a fast one. The shit is going down.
This new regulation will cripple crypto.
Best explanation I've seen so far https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

After you're through celebrating the New Year and goggling at helicopter memes, please comment here:
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

After this rule gets finalized, there will be no going back.

I wouldn't know what to comment other than "This is utter bullshit and an egregious overreach of state power."

eddie13

legendary

Activity: 2296

Merit: 2271

BTC or BUST

Quote from: vapourminer on December 31, 2020, 11:19:38 PM

Quote from: eddie13 on December 31, 2020, 11:11:43 PM

Dude I just won another $750
Idk why..

cuz you bet $1500?

lol have fun

I had about $200 in my pocket when I left last night and pulled another $300 out of the atm..
Have almost $1500 in my pocket this morning even after spending over $200 in just bar tabs..

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: Millionero on January 01, 2021, 02:28:28 AM

The Treasury Department is pulling a fast one. The shit is going down.
This new regulation will cripple crypto.
Best explanation I've seen so far https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

After you're through celebrating the New Year and goggling at helicopter memes, please comment here:
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

After this rule gets finalized, there will be no going back.

vroom

legendary

Activity: 1303

Merit: 1681

a Cray can run an endless loop in under 4 hours

road to 100k, enhanced version:

bitserve

legendary

Activity: 1932

Merit: 1610

Self made HODLER ✓

Quote from: tertius993 on January 01, 2021, 06:29:37 AM

Quote from: tertius993 on January 01, 2021, 03:19:55 AM

Nice stats table, interesting to see them in one place like that, but there is something weird in the up/down arrow column - what is that calculating and how could July be down over 300%?

Well I worked out what was happening: the posts percentage change column is working on the current month instead of the change vs the previous month. The BTC change column is doing the same thing.

The numbers should look something like this I think:

Month	Posts	Change	BTC/$	$ change
Jan	4,660		$9,352
Feb	4,223	-9%	$8,640	-8%
Mar	6,611	56%	$6,463	-25%
Apr	4,381	-33%	$8,770	36%
May	4,509	3%	$9,462	8%
Jun	2,877	-36%	$9,163	-3%
Jul	673	-77%	$11,333	24%
Aug	2,656	295%	$11,708	3%
Sep	2,742	3%	$10,741	-8%
Oct	2,454	-11%	$13,815	29%
Nov	4,164	70%	$19,507	41%
Dec	4,163	0%	$29,191	50%

July the strangest month - posts down 77% but BTC UP 24% - perhaps everyone was on holiday as the post count number is amazingly low.
Note: ignore the July comment, turns out that was due to a large number of post deletions, and in fact post count went negative that month.

Bob be like:

HAPPY NEW YEAR FULL OF ATH'S EVERYONE!!!

El duderino_

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 13660

BTC + Crossfit, living life.

https://twitter.com/bitstein/status/1344994144805117952?s=20

Wekkel

legendary

Activity: 3122

Merit: 1538

yes

Quote from: Millionero on January 01, 2021, 04:52:47 AM

For some ideas to make your comments effective, I found Jake Chervinsky and Ben Davenport helpful
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1340135041746300932
https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

Out of merits but this is an important one. The rule to require KYC (including physical address) will lead to large cryptocurrency holders (digitally) fleeing any US Exchange/Fintech company.

edit: tx, El duderino. Passed some forward to the OP

serveria.com

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1230

Privacy Servers. Since 2009.

Quote from: JimboToronto on January 01, 2021, 08:15:09 AM

Good morning Bitcoinland and ~~Happy~~ Ecstatic New Year.

Another day, another ATH (29700 Stamp), another micro-correction... currently $29352USD/$37340CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

$30k later today?

Go Bitcoin go.

I have a gut feeling we haven't run out of ATHs for today... Grin

JimboToronto

legendary

Activity: 4242

Merit: 5039

You're never too old to think young.

Good morning Bitcoinland and ~~Happy~~ Ecstatic New Year.

Another day, another ATH (29700 Stamp), another micro-correction... currently $29352USD/$37340CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

$30k later today?

Go Bitcoin go.

Quote from: 600watt on January 01, 2021, 07:45:49 AM

price went up another little smidge? WHAT???!!? DUUUMP EEEET.

never. gets. old. Cheesy

Just fools "taking profit" by buying fiat.

Eventually all they have left is a bunch of fiat and they become bitter no-coiners on the outside looking in.

NeuroticFish

legendary

Activity: 3668

Merit: 6382

Looking for campaign manager? Contact icopress!

Happy New Year!
And Happy New ATH! (again)

600watt

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 2106

price went up another little smidge? WHAT???!!? DUUUMP EEEET.

never. gets. old. Cheesy

somac.

legendary

Activity: 2050

Merit: 1184

Never selling

Quote from: serveria.com on January 01, 2021, 06:35:11 AM

Quote from: dre1982 on January 01, 2021, 05:22:04 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

we're heading to reach $30K, personally I'm so much excited. we all hope there no dumps however, I have no clue. It might not happen at all. with so much momentum, BTC might keep climbing.

I expected a dump after hitting $20k, $25k and so on but it hasn't come yet. But there will be one for sure. This can't continue like this.

Institutional investors have strong hands. Get used to it. Cool

Strong hands yes, and why do they have strong hands, because they are after wealth preservation. They are not looking at Bitcoin as a way to make capital gains. They are using it to preserve the wealth they have already achieved over the last several decades.

They'll only "take profit" when the legacy system has once become stable enough for them to go about normal business. This will take a while with the full blown MMT that is coming down the line. Monetary and fiscal stimulus to the moon, along with those looking to preserve their wealth.

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 6527. (Read 26723496 times)