25K to 100K is not really "price action", it's a huge amount of money that needs to pour in. 250K, well, it's even much more bigger !
But I will not bet against it either.
But I will not bet against it either.
It's not just about money. If supply is very reduced because few people are willing to sell and also because of the deflationary nature of bitcoin, less money is needed to make the price go up.
The flip side being that if nobody sells, the price can't go up anymore either !
I think it would be a great sign if nobody wanted to sell a single bitcoin at a certain price. It will never happen though.
There is plenty of supply available, the price just needs to get to the point where it shakes some loose. For instance, I'm guessing more than half of the bitcoin ever created would be available for sale right now at $1million each.
There is no shortage. It just seems like it because the price is so low. Who would sell now when they know what the next year has in store?
The question is: why "old school" money managers from Citi to Fidelity now gave btc price targets (next year!!) of 300-400K or even more? From my previous encounters with finance, analysts loath making predictions of more than 2X current price, with 30-50% up or down being the most typical. Here they went 15-20X. I am not sure why?
One possible explanation is they are trying to make the curve to go hyper-exponential, then pull the "rug" from under and collapse it.
Or, maybe, really strong WS money already accumulated enough in $5K-20K range and now want a rapid rise to cash out.
There must be some play here, but what is it?
Of course, it is possible that me are witnessing financial "regime change", but much more data is needed to support this.
Serious people have said that the only thing that can stop btc is very high interest rates.
In one playbook they will go for high inflation, causing btc to climb super high, then as inflation is established, smash btc down by sudden increase in the interest rates: going from super negative real rates that we see at the moment to positive rates, which would mean, say, 10-15% interest rates a la Volcker shock.
