Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 6895. (Read 26712929 times)

Miners have to micro manage.

Forget all costs except power.  Power is paid in cash not BTC.

Monthly bills are common

So a 2 week difficulty is about 1/2 of your bill time.

Next jump is -10% and it lasts for 14 or even as much as 16 days if it is a big drop.
Since we know that rainy season prices ended for power in China the jump after this one will be -3 to +3 (estimate)

I know 28-32 days of good difficulty are coming.  I can micromanage those days. I can turn an almost certain profit for that time period.
In my case I am a 4 man team with a small team. On great months we make 8000 a month on shit months we make 2000 a month.

That is usd profit. Last month we made 2600 usd.
The projected profit based on difficulty will be 1.1 x 1.03 = 1.133 x 1 higher than last month.

This allows me a cash out choice of 345 worth of coin into fiat

2600 x 1.113 = 2945

2945-2600 = 345   and be cashed and we can still hodl the same 2600 usd worth of coin we held last month.

What kills miners is over expanding and not hodling some of the profit.

I always need to study my:
 
cash
coins
gpus
asics
debt

 vs the diff the next 2 diff and the current price along with 20% lower price and 20% higher price.

This lets me know if I need to sell some coin buy some gear sell some gear.

Look at a model with 8k a month for 12 months = 96k
Look at a model with 2k a month for 12 months = 24k

play with debt number.
play with diff number.

We have some time had 6 months of flat diff = good time to expand your mining gear

Holy shit, you guys are still here? Amazing. Haven't checked bitcointalk in years.

Concededly, I am NOT mining, so I do not have the same kinds of "hands on" and personal experience as you guys, yet I am having some troubles understanding the degree to which any kind of meaningful changes in mining difficulty are taking place.  When I look at the difficulty measurements, I mostly see minor fluctuations, especially if such measurements are made over each of the adjustment periods.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

So, currently, the difficulty estimator is showing that the next adjustment of difficulty is currently projected to be down about 5.91% in 5 days and 8 hours.... and I know that those projections can end up changing, too.. but even if such downward difficulty projection plays out, it still keeps difficulty higher than it was 4 adjustments back - on 9/7.

From a non-miner perspective, the adjustments to difficulty do not seem to be very great, significant or material, even if miners are reporting on the ground that these kinds of adjustments have a lot of meaningful impact on their own profitability - coupled with short-term UPpity BTC price moves?