It will be interesting to see the final result.
Yep interesting.
When the BTC price is going up, many of us tend to gravitate towards greater levels of optimism in regards to UPpity and even considering that UPpity is more and MOAR inevitable.
Of course, waves take place - and also at some point, we are going to enter into a "last time below $10k" point in time.
Really knowing the bottom is probably almost as powerful as knowing peaks - but surely, we know that neither peaks nor bottoms can really be known with any kinds of high levels of certainty, except in retrospect.
No wonder the exchanges' reserves have come down so much this year. Just a couple of million more and we get our supply shortage event.
You said in one sentence what it took me a JJG sort of novella to try to say above.
Not looking forward to that.
IMHO, what is happening (my hypothesis): faced with constant withdrawals, exchanges instituted a scheme where they are getting re-hypothecated bitcoin from the likes of blockfi, celsius, nexo and crypto.com
That's why price does not react to bullish events, as long as their "supply" is virtually unlimited.
The question is: do you trust that each btc on exchange 'actually' represent a "real" bitcoin or a bitcoin genuinely "borrowed" from the companies mentioned above?
I strongly suspect that it is not the case.
It is probably much, much worse.
There is not going to be any supply shortage as long as the 'scheme' continues unabated.
Those engaged in fractional reserves could get caught on the wrong side of those kinds of bets, too....
Fractional reserves is part of the theory of what happened with MTGOX... sure, those kinds of actors may well be able to play their bad fractional reserve bets (which does not adequately prepare them for UP) for a while but sometimes face-melting UPpity could come with extreme explosiveness and thereby cause chickens to come home to roost for those kinds of ill-prepared betters - and really show who the naked swimmers happen to be (employment of mixed metaphores, of course).
You can thank me later.
