how do you determine on-chain transations to cost so much?
He can’t. His post is just a roundabout way of saying, “Bitcoin cannot scale, and will thus become a banker’s toy as bone-crushing transaction fees force everybody into the next generation of Paypal.” Baloney.
Almost all bitcoin transactions in the future will be done on exchanges, between bank accounts, or through digital warehouses without any bitcoin moving on chain. I'm not holding mine like that but you know most people and companies will, out of fear or because they don't know any other way.
Nice list. You are basically describing a centralized shitcoin that’s like meta-Paypal 2.0 with magic “blockchain” pixie dust sprinkled on top. Who needs it?
(Not the banks, who do not like transparent blockchains for their own use! There is a reason why JPMorgan Chase (!) paid the erstwhile Zcash Company to adapt zk-SNARKs to their own bigbank confidentiality requirements. See also Greg Maxwell’s discussions of bigcorp interest in Confidential Transactions—which are accordingly implemented in Blockstream’s Liquid. Only idiots make their own finances publicly transparent; bigcorps are not so stupid.)Notably, you omitted
Lightning Network, and other off-chain things
not under the control of banks and other regulated corporations.
The end game is bitcoin becomes the settlement layer for the world. Transaction costs are going way up in the future, you're not going to want to do on-chain transactions when it costs $1000+ to do so, but if you're settling a billions dollars, that's a tiny price to pay.
I could see perhaps something on the order of magnitude of $100 (in today’s current value) on-chain transaction costs, but $1000+? Smells like FUD.
Bitcoin needs to be accessible to even relatively poor individuals for long-lived channel management on a future L2: Scrape together, say, $100 to open a channel that runs for years.
N.b., I am not saying it will cost that much! Just taking that as a figure that will seem high to most people, it would be less expensive overall, amortized over the channel lifetime, than the ripoff fees that regulated money transmitters charge to the “unbanked” in many regions. Proportionately, the poor always get ripped off the worst!
Speaking from experience—if I had back all of the money that I have ever paid to move small amounts of money without a bank account...That is not some bleeding-heart egalitarian hogwash. It is simply a functional description of what is necessary to be something other than just another bankers’ tool.
$1000+ tx fees would mean that Bitcoin is destined to fail—or worse, to become an abomination against financial freedom—and that I should dump it and get out right now.
Fortunately, I do not believe you. On-chain scalability improvements, combined with off-chain layering, must and will keep “Be Your Own Bank”
financial independence within the reach of ordinary individuals—including those who are
not early-entrant “Bitcoin rich”. Just look at the excellent work in Segwit v1, soon nascent, and then consider what the same types of continuing incremental improvements will bring to the baselayer—and what types of new protocols they will support.
The fact is, whether we like it or not, very few individuals (other than those of us here) will hold private keys in 10 years. The transaction costs alone will ensure it.
That would turn Bitcoin into a bankers’ wet dream: The totally controlled, centralized, regulated basis for a cashless dystopia in which everybody can be tracked, traced, and forced to ask permission to use money.
That is not a new allegation, and it’s not true.
The fact is, whether
you the bankers like it or not, cryptographic cleverness will continue to enable technologies that
put the individual in direct control of his own money.