Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7185. (Read 26720873 times)

a now late wall report..minus the report

Just some charting against a backdrop that essentially looks fine imo. Not sure what is causing folks to feel bearish other than perhaps wanting cheap coins.
Bitcoin is trading over $11.7k..this seems fine.

#dyor
1h


4h

#stronghands

Hopium.

My body is ready:


https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.

Thanks bitebits ... and of course, i am not the only one who posts on the financial management strategies topic.  

Personally, I was not familiar with that particular guy or his podcast, and it seems as if currently, I have a bit of a podcast overload in my own life... there are more and more good podcasts, related to bitcoin.. and sure other topics, too....

Since I was able to find that same Naval podcast (and of course that particular episode) on Overcast, then I will be able to more easily add it to my cue and listen to it today or soon.^tm..  

I will report back to you (on the thread) what I think of the episode and gosh/shit I will report whether I am intending to add that podcast to my list of regular listens (like I mentioned, I am starting to tentatively speculate that I may have too many podcasts on my cue.. but sure, i will try to keep listening and prioritizing.. to the extent feasible).  

On average, I also tend to listen to podcasts at 1.75x (which also can be done on Youtube, but I still prefer overcast, for some reason), and sometimes I can speed some of the episodes up even more than 1.75x, but if they are dense with information, or I am feeling that I  am having troubles following or comprehending some of the contents, then sometimes I have to even slow down the speed to a mere 1x.. or slightly above 1x -- like 1.25x or something like that.


I speculate that bitebits is technically watching such paint dry rather than mere waiting for it to dry.   



Go figure what wall observers will do to show their dedication to the cause.   

There is no need to get all UPpity JuanSnowGee. The UPpity will come at its proper time and place.


No.

There should be no lumping what so ever...especially if I am the lumpee. I will however concede that I much prefer to be the lumper rather than the lumpee if we are going to have lumpage of the unwashed masses.



I am unsure if my statements...or theory as would have you, qualifies as something that falls into a doom and gloom scenario.



I believe this as well. If said miners tend to follow sound business practices and withhodl 3 to 6 months of operating capital for just in case, such capitulation theories become moot.


Yes.


This seems wise and I reluctantly agree.


Stronghands are not shook...ever. I thought you knew this JuanSnowGee.


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That is all.

Pools are not the issue.

Clarity and pool ownership is more important. They are not regulated no one knows the relationship  of the top ten pools.

As for just sha 256 coins viabtc alone can 51% all the lesser  256 coins anytime they want to do it.  In fact shared algorithms for any coin invite a 51% attack. I could for days about the downsides of only ten pools holding 90% of the sha 256 .  I FEAR the hashrate being squeezed more then I do the top ten pools combined to attack a coin.

^ Finally bit the bullet and got myself some fancy Bluetooth earplugs. Can paint and listen to podcasts simultaneously!

(Jobs like house painting do not scale according to Nadal, not good to get wealthy. But it does help lowering my spending, free exercise and I find it relaxing for the brain.)  

Do you have 3.5 hours to spare becaise you are putting off painting the house, or because you are waiting for a coat of paint to dry?

I don't care how frustrated they are, I have something they apparently lack... morality, ethics, compassion, and law-abiding.

Anarchistic rioters and looters are not "peaceful protesters with a cause", they are criminals. So stop justifying their actions.


Ok whatever you say Jay...  

Regarding creating wealth, patience, financial independence, compound interest, leverage, etc etc. If you have 3.5 hours to spare (which I have because painting the house) would definitely recommend listing to the podcast by @Naval:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=1-TZqOsVCNM

(quite sure this is something you enjoy listening to JJG)

Just because we are talking about walls and BTC price movement in the short term, does not really mean that we give too many shits about short term BTC price movements - or that we are not keeping long term likely UPpity in mind.

You are participating in those same conversations and talking about what you believe about UP or DOWN in the short term, so shouldn't we lump you in the same category regarding what your concerns are because you are regularly posting about such?


Maybe that is why we might use monthly candles to see pretty patterns but not necessarily tie too much distinguishing characteristics from them that we cannot get out of weekly candles.


Not going to criticize you for being cccccciiittttteeeeee!!!!!!!

 



Of course, similar with traders, there are going to be all kinds of variation within any identified group, so yeah you are entitled to having your doom and gloom theory about miners potentially being over extended, even though I do not really buy that theory, personally.

I believe that miners have overall been profitable, and sure they can hold back some coins in order to speculate on the BTC price going up, and likely they have always engaged in some conduct, but the longer and longer that bitcoin is in business the more and more the dumber miners have been getting screened out, and the more and more that miners have figured out ways to meaningfully balance their approach to cash out from time to time and also to hold back enough coins to speculate.

I doubt that the bitcoin space is getting less and less stable with the passage of time, even though BIGGER and BIGGER players continue to come into the space and attempt to throw larger and larger capital at the situation to attempt to get their way (to manipulate up or to manipulate down or to push extreme price movements - if they can), but in the end, we are seeing longer term (you like long term, right?) chart patterns that are seeming to show 4-year fractal BTC price prediction model and even the stock to flow BTC price prediction model to be almost too eerily close to being 100% spot on...

Yeah, I am not going to proclaim that the BTC price is guaranteed to continue to follow those 4-year fractal and stock to flow model patterns, but they continue to serve as some of the best BTC price directional predictors in spite a lot of the maneuvering and dickering around that either BIG money does or even crazy-ass shit in the macro financial space.

So for example, let's say we get a hundred thousand BTC dumped over a variety of exchanges (from miners or retail or whoever) and BTC prices drop down to $6,500 again, how long is that drop going to last?  I will believe it when I see it.  I am not suggesting that it is NOT possible to achieve more large BTC price drops and to sustain them for lower and longer than seems feasible (or sustainable), but largely we are seeming way more inclined towards UPpity rather than DOWNity, currently, even if we experience a few more dumpenings of coins to attempt to shake out some more weak hands, but if even the weakhands are not being shook, then I suppose that they are NOT fitting into any kind of real world the definition of "weak hands" - they are not weak enough.

Personally, I would not mind witnessing a decent amount of shakening of some of the froth, baloney ethereum and some of that defi , yield farming, bullshit smoke and mirrors nonsense.. those areas seem way more vulnerable to getting some purging than speculative seemingly lame-ass theories of purported BTC miner capitulation.  


Part of the reason that rioters are both so adamant and willing to riot is that they hardly have shit to lose.  In other words they do not have property.. so stop trying to act like they are burning property and they have their own property.. they do not.

That's largely why they are rioting.

There has been systematic fucking around with regular people (who have turned into rioters) and even giving so many of the spoils to the rich, and lack of attention to the infrastructure of normies, so normies start to feel that they have nothing to lose - they turn into rioters.

normies are just like us (even though many of us have bitcoin.. and many normies do not know about bitcoin)

By the way, there is no such thing as antifa, too.. it is a made up acronym that tries to suggest that rioters are some kind of organized entity, when they are just a bunch of frustrated and unorganized normies.. who don't have property or seem to have opportunities

The MSM is complicit. I'm barely seeing 5% MSM coverage of the "boots-on-the-ground" reporting of incidents being posted on Twitter.

This is really worst thing around the world we have riots in many countries with burning properties and killing innocent peoples just in name of peace love and humanity just because of this now I am not watching any news channel.

I largely recall that incident with Ghash.IO in mid 2014, and I thought that they largely discouraged continue movement into their pool, and it was easy to move from pool to pool, even in mid-2014

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/184427-one-bitcoin-group-now-controls-51-of-total-mining-power-threatening-entire-currencys-safety

I think that these days mining is even more mobile, and sure it is possible that mining power could end up consolidating into a bad actor, but so far we have not been seeing those kinds of kill the golden goose kinds of plays -

I am not going to presume all of the miners are good, and I am not going to presume that there might not be attempts for bad actors to overtake hashpower, so then we get another test of who is in charge of bitcoin.. miners or nodes... yes, there could be drama 2.0 in regards, to who is in charge of bitcoin - even though currently, we seem to have more speculation about such evil miners then actually witnessing such evil miners play out (and of course, they are covertly stacking hashing power so that they can attack all of a sudden rather than gradually.... perhaps?  perhaps?  there is likely good hashing power stacking covertly, too, and again, back to nodes.. are the nodes going to be able to figure out the difference between good and bad?). 

We can always speculate that "bad things are going to happen" in regards to mining, and those theories have been batted around since at least 2014, if not before, but it seems that mining has become more and more distributed and even various miners are making efforts to invest in mining in order to be able to have some mobility (and ability to turn on mining power) in order to attempt to deal with a variety of potential attacks... and seems to me that if these variety of attacks were becoming more likely, then we would see fewer mining pools and less mining power with the passage of time, but instead we continue to see more mining pools and more hashing power.  Go figure.

+1 WOsMerit

thanks info

Right up until its a sprint...

yes

My interest stems from the fact that monthly candles describe long term macro trends and that is where my interest in bitcoin lies...long term. As for material significance? I am not sure how much can be gleaned from monthlies for day to day trading..which I think is what the majority of hodlers in this thread are focused on. We dont even have 9 years of monthly candles yet..just over 100 candles maybe? That is not enough of a statistically relevant number to be making assumptions on. Each month closed reduces noise however..so again...yes, I am excited.
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yes

Perhaps I was not clear enough in my statements. I think there is a difference between miners turning off rigs due to profitability and affecting difficulty and miners having to dump coin to pay bills. Which the latter is what I was referring to. I believe some miners have been hodling coins on the possibility that there might be a significant rise in price and at some point selling capitulation might be a factor. Again..in my humble opinion.

https://twitter.com/binance/status/1300070773655183362

its time for the next evolution