Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7236. (Read 26725759 times)

Don't be a hater, lightfoot.




That's a low blow, vapourminer.    below the belt, dare I say?



Haters everywhere.....

Still, it's Thursday tomorrow, thanks Gott  

I recognize that your three calculation scenarios do attempt to categorize how bitcoin's growth might happen, even while your further discussion also seems to meld the three categories into a kind of "anything can happen" but most likely UPpity.    

By the way, I cannot really disagree with any of what you are saying, ivomm.

In any event, there are some thoughts that every halvening will consistently cause a 10x increase in BTC price per halvening period in the event that demand stays the same (but I believe that the more nuanced BTC price predictions do at least presume a bit of a linear increase in demand for BTC in order to achieve 10x per 4 year period, otherwise why would BTC achieve anything more than 2x per 4 years if the demand actually were to stay exactly the same for each 4-year period?).

Of course, these have to be kind of ballparking BTC price projections, since if we look at 10x per cycle surely would result in something less than a 2x price per year increase..  Because 2x per year does end up having exponential effects when extrapolated out 4 years resulting in: 0=1x; 1=2x; 2=4x; 3=8x; 4=16x.. .so yeah, 16x in 4 years does end up being more than 10x per 4 years.. and gosh I have my doubts about whether 16x would be sustainable, every 4 years... even presuming some kind of linear (rather than exponential increase in demand), and yeah metcalfe principles likely account for a lot of these exponential like theorizing that have been around in BTC-landia for years.  Hory sheet!!!  

We also can appreciate that at some point, there is going to need to be some kind of flattening of the UPward trajectory of BTC's prices, but without really knowing if demand stays the same, or if demand rises in a kind of linear way or how much demand might change with the changes of happenings in and around the space, and without exactly knowing how demand might change (even if we know what supply is going to do**) we get into crazy-ass and difficult-to-plot trajectories - which surely, even though stock-to-flow does seem to account for a kind of straight-line increase in demand, it also seems to continue where we might continue to go into the next couple of halvenings, which should be more than enough to get us well beyond $300k, crazy as that might seem.. but still, who knows, for sure?

**By the way, there are so many bitcoin naysayers who seem to under appreciate the power of actually knowing part of the supply/demand formula, which is the supply portion.  It is almost as if we (bitcoin HODLers) are cheating by knowing the supply ahead of time, but bitcoin naysayers still want to continue to act as if in Bitcoinlandia there are way too many unknowns, when we, bitcoin HODLers, are given half of the formula in advance (as if the bitcoin naysayers did not get the memo... or understand what the memo says...  poor fucks!!!!   ).

Edit:  I fixed 32x to 16x.. Seems to me that 16x is a more accurate assessment of doubling each year extrapolated out to 4 years (not 32x in my original calculation)..

She needs a damn good ... shower. All that sand gets everywhere. Ev-ery-where.

+1 WOsMerit



+1 WOsMerit

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On the positive side of this, regularly, you do tend to be a pretty damned decent measure about what might be happening on the 1-minute charts, bob.      for whatever that's worth..

 

Sideways 11xxx seems like a brand new thing.

In the past we only visited that range during up-and-down rollercoaster rides.

Now we have time to observe the scenery...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ecE91ZBusI

Mmmm.... I know which boobs I would prefer....

I was thinking some kind of similar response as you, ivomm, to the evergreen repeated theme concept that we have to have a down before we can go up, and there were a lot of peeps that got screwed out of establishing an adequate bitcoin stash in 2016/early-2017-ish because of such seemingly problematic conceptions.

This time is different?  I am having doubts.

There continue to be so many new peeps that come into the bitcoin space (and of course the scammy overall crypto space), and the old selling points seem to continue to work, even though we can look back and verify that some subtle variation of those same selling points have already been played a few times.

Still seems that the smarter punchline out of this whole old wine in a new flask situation is to just continue to buy BTC and to make sure that each of us has enough BTC for UP, just in case down or more sideways does not happen.

I will definitely concede that none of us really knows, so each of us just have to do what we believe best prepares us on a personal level (without being too smart for our own good), and hope that we do not get our bets too wrong that we are not able to profit from what seem to be ongoingly pretty decent asymmetric odds in favor of king daddy.


It seems way too early presume that 4 digits are gone forever.  

Each of us should attempt to be somewhat realistic in our own BTC price expectations.

Sure, we might never witness 4 digits again, but even some of the most bullish of BTC price analyzers appreciate the reality of short term DOWNity, no matter how much some of us might prefer such DOWNity to NOT happen, including the fact that BTC's 200 week moving average is currently a wee bit over $6,500 which such 200 WMA continues to be a reasonable measure for where downward extremes could end up and do happen in bitcoin from time to time.. maybe even more frequently than some of us would prefer.. because they certainly are stressful periods, even for the strongest of BTC HODLers...

If we have been in the BTC space for a while, we should appreciate that one of the great ways to shake some additional weak hands out of their BTC is to manipulate some extreme DOWNities that causes even those who believe that they are strong hands to melt into pussies.... especially if such extreme DOWNity manipulation is coupled with a decently impactful shakening out of some froth from the shitcoin space (aka scammer defi, yield farming, eth heads, amongst others).

judging by your hat avatar (if you squint with poor lighting and enough drugs), well, yes maybe it would.

just sayin
 

some charts

Hodling onto $11.1kish support bitcoin has bounced back towards $11.5k and is currently trading at $11,468.59 on rising volume. Probable continuation of sideways accumulation today.  #dyor

4h


D

#stronghands

Does an AI have knockers like that?

#justsaying

 


The receipt of an actual 21 satoshis would be nice for accomplishments like this.... and potentially sustainable for a good 8 years or perhaps even 12 years or longer... before such quantities of value transfer might start to become too expensive (absent some kind of forum tax - or are would we be counting on "libertarian charity" - if that might not be an oxymoronic presumption?   )

I am thinking that maybe such a transfer of value would be preferable over the lightning network or some other low fee system in order for such deserving member actually receives the full value (accounting for reasonable transaction fees).. although having a forum wallet that retains value would also remove transaction fees, too (except when moving value in and out of such hypothetical forum wallet).

By the way, congrats d_eddie.  You have had a lot of great contributions to the forum through the years, so your advancing into official "legendary" status was largely as inevitable as bitcoin is volatile... which is as about as sure of a bet as can be made, amiNOTkoreck?

No..thank you, for letting us share your pain.

My condolences my friend.

When I listened to Pomp's podcast today, I thought about the lil dilemma that you had presented in your earlier post, fillippone.


Of course, I don't really idealize Pomp because he does have some tendencies to "give the benefit of the doubt" to a variety of shitcoiner ideas, and so on today's show when he was interviewing Alex about the potential advantages of any person creating their own personalized token (shitcoin), I began to speculate (in my mind) that Pomp was going to go down the road of creating his own token/shitcoin, and then he (Pomp) would be lost forever from any kind of possible redemption.

I will note that at about halfway into the podcast, Pomp and Alex started to get into discussing ethereum versus bitcoin, and through that portion of the conversation we could appreciate that even though in the first half of the podcast, Alex had seemed to have had a lot of smart ideas and even seemingly charitable in terms of his expectations around his personalized token (shitcoin).  Once we got into the ethereum versus bitcoin discussion, we could recognize that Alex is a bit of a delusional crazy-ass nutjob, and surely in the delusional camp of a lot of eth-heads, and at through the fleshing out of that conversation, Pomp really was able to present quite valid arguments concerning why any person who might be somewhat materially established would be quite foolish to stake their finances and/or reputation into smoke and mirror shitcoin projects, even though there still could be a decent amount of short-term financial benefits for folks who do NOT have anything to lose to go down that kind of a risky career path.   

Even though some members here might posture that this post (of mine) is going a bit too far down the shit-coin discussion path, I believe that in the end, I am largely providing additional ammunition and reasons why ongoing and continuous bashing on shitcoin projects is a fundamentally sound practice, especially for peeps who are trying to invest their value (whether time, psychology or finances) with attempts to maintain relatively solid long-term practices.. which definitely, in the end, should bring us back to showing king daddy at the top of those kinds  of long term assessments.

Fidelity President Files For New Bitcoin Fund.

I recognize the Raw reference, but I am currently brain farting in regards to tc.

It's not you; it's me.

Probably had something to do with Donald Trump.

thanks guys. that means a lot to me.

There are no walls. Just little bumps and obstacles.