Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7457. (Read 26730700 times)

Hey ivomm,
I would suggest you to read my thread here explaining about it: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/how-does-price-action-really-works-traders-are-predicts-5229837
Of course, the price will never obey my TA. In other words, none can tell surly and 100% how the price should react even the best trader in the world. Because there is a difference between traders are predicts.
So generally, price action is just a science that examines the possibilities. Depends on how you use it.

Also regarding to chart patterns, it's a super huge world there are many geometric and fibonacci ratios we should check and if one number changes a little bit the whole pattern changes completely. Just to see how many chart patters do we have and how complicated they are you can check this page here: http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html
I usually won't consider patterns except for long and mid-term analyzes (That's just my style )

Edit: Oh sorry bud.. I didn't notice the joke part in the first place....

Thank you for sharing your toughs with me about the analyze. Apologize for the misunderstanding in the first place  

No the argument is more like this.


Round earth or flat earth. There really isn't technicaly much difference. They are both earths

You do realize that one can draw at least 20 other lines connecting various tops/bottoms, showing absolutely all possible directions of the future prices, right?   And then, why should Bitcoin obey the one you chose?  (Of course, this is kind of a joke with much truth in it, valid for any TA in general.)

Having said that, there are some patterns that are remarkable and studied in the professional TA. Perhaps the most famous is the falling wedge pattern. It is clear that since the spike above 10200, we have a falling wedge. Your lines somehow miss this pattern. I don't understand how arbitrary lines should be preferred compared to the most common pattern in trading history. Anyway, the TA regarding the next move of the price pretty much is clueless. Half of the books/artciles predict a downard breakout and the other half an upward breakout. The only thing both agree is that the volume will be much higher. The other thing I partially agree with, is that it depends on whether we are in a bear or a bull market. If we are in a bull market started in March 12th and that will continue in the months and years to come, then the breakout should be upwards. It is almost equally possible however, that we are still in a longer bear market since July 2019 (or should I say since Jan 2018 with an interruption April-June 2019), so a breakout downards is equally possible.

About the poll, I chose September. For the prophesy:

My next analyze is ready on my thread. Where I explained about the breaking price compression channel which is one of the most important movements of this year, where the market makes decision to make a break one side of the channel and attempts for higher or even lower targets.

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $9,186

Now, you seem to be saying the opposite from what you had seemed to have been saying before.

Are you having split personality issues, currently?      #nohomo

In the end, guys and gal can decide for themselves how to manage their BTC portfolio, including trying to determine somewhat planned out strategies in advance, so in that regard, actual BTC performance and/or view of BTC fundamentals would not be the only factors to consider, and surely some peeps are going to be better at figuring out all of their issues than others including figuring out cashflow, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and their time, skills and abilities to research learn about bitcoin which also includes how they plan/strategize including reallocating from time to time or even trading or not.

I am reluctant to say anything else, because I am not sure if our points are resonating with each other, currently.

I think the point is to keep as much as you can for as long as you can and there is never a bad time to stack. Divesting is always a losing proposition no matter what price point you get.

Maybe we are talking past each other or alternatively, maybe we can just agree to disagree to the extent that I am just going to repeat my point that the dynamics have not really changed in this cycle as compared with previous cycles including how much you might also have feelings regarding what the pulse of members of this thread might be, including whether honey badger gives any shits about what regular members of this thread might do.

Of course, there are always going to be people already in bitcoin that are anxious to sell out as soon as we even get close to our previous ATH.. just like that was true in 2015/2016 when so many HODLers were talking like desperate fanatics to cash out at or near $1k, including having doubts that the BTC price would ever return to $1k again and also arguing that they wanted to cash out before everyone else who was eager to cash out.  

How the fuck are they feeling after the BTC price went to $19,666 and they blew their load at $1k-ish under the belief that everyone else would be selling and the BTC price could not be supported up to those higher prices... furthermore, if they were planning to buy back later at a cheaper price, so far, they have been kind of fucked out of that and the best that they could have done was somewhere in the $3k's even though they might have been waiting for even lower prices, so they even failed to buy back in the $3ks..

How have those smarter than the rest of us theories about: 1) "the BTC price NOT being sustainable" and 2) "everyone is desperate to lock-in profits" working out?  Not so well, I would maintain.    In other words, good luck selling all your coins around $20k and the same may be true regarding other price points in the 5 digits realm... even though none of these matters are guaranteed, there are likely opportunity costs and risks in trying to believe that you are smarter than everyone else and selling too much too soon based on such skepticism theories regarding what prices might be sustainable in BTClandia.

He's correct about this. Most care about what they can buy and are not in this for the altruistic goals of economic freedom.


A good portion of those in this thread only care about how much they can cash out for.

That assertion from @mikeinspace is nearly pure bullshit.

It's like arguing that every $100 step from $200, to $300, to $500 etc was going to be painstaking while the BTC price was in the double digits in late 2012, and we know how that played out.

Also

It's like arguing that every $1,000 step from $2,000, to $3,000, to $5,000 etc was going to be painstaking while the BTC price was in the triple digits in late 2016, and we know how that is playing out.

In other words, even if we might experience some BTC price stagnation points and maybe even BTC price percentage increases that are NOT as outrageously extreme as they had been in previous cycles, there is no reason (beyond pure naysaying) to believe that the BTC UPpity price dynamics are NOT much different than they had been in those earlier cycles.. even if the waves are quite likely to play out in somewhat different ways (and we have seen that too, in each cycle, the waves do NOT play out exactly the same, even though the generally go in the same UPpity direction if we zoom out a wee bit).

USA gone in two years would largely be the playing out of an Armageddon scenario, which seems like quite a long shot, even under the crazy-ass conditions under which we currently find our lil selfies in which gradually and then suddenly could end up playing out.  I hope that you are not putting too many eggs in the seemingly long-shot scenario that you are anticipating.  

@mikeinspace
The road to 100K will be long & arduous for #Bitcoin  as each 10K rise is someone’s psychological top creating sell pressure and retracement. It’s easy to say you’ll hang on white knuckled all the way up but when will you lick the fiat boot... 20K? 30K? 50K?

HODL brother, HODL!
https://twitter.com/mikeinspace/status/1282862789812531206?s=21

@bitharington
All I want for Christmas 2020 is ~20K. And all I want for Christmas 2021 is 100K+. At least 10X every four years / every halving. And following the S2F avg ~100K price model. Let's go! 🐂

And if it doesn't happen, we'll just work like everybody else, right? No problem.

https://twitter.com/bitharington/status/1282664054675431428?s=21

I'm not sure but you could get dual citizenship..it would not help the taxes problem...but would maybe be an alternative if you are going to live overseas as far as the state

taxes and/or medical issues of the future being paid for...(not much but all that comes to mind) I'm also not sure if you MARRY someone overseas and eventually get

their citizenship under that plan applies...but you probably would just have dual citizenship by default..it is not US citizenship just stops being so...

Probably, you can simply make a LLC or some such..put everyone under that and do the whole corporate tax shift that way..just have it pay you a certain amount each

year and just pay cap gains on that? is that how that works...?  All I know for sure is a LOT of ex-military in the USA who have foreign brides get socialized medicine via

that route rather than the VA also cheaper to retire in the wife's home country too boot.....anyway, not like I'm gonna find a wife/country/etc that would accept my likes

anyway.....for what it is worth? Anyone with more clarification of the above feel free.

Brad

Would relocating to Puerto Rico be an option, or got to pay taxes when leaving mainland either way?

Coinbase is anti bitcoin, they bloated mempool, inflated tx fees by resisting segwit, refused grouping transaction together, jumped on supporting bcash, actively selling analytics software to IRS etc etc etc pretty much all things that a bear like you would've done short of supporting BSv, so its really hard to call them a good guy, thus my suggested alternative exchanges that actually support bitcoin and it's idea/spirit. They're a business and are free to do as they wish, but i don't have to support them just as i don't have to support company trying to make a buck by selling facial recognition/tracking software to governments.

As far as centralization, see, it's a common knowledge that BTC is more decentralized than BSv, but yet you claim otherwise. It's like me saying that earth is round and you claim that it's flat. Than, you troll for definition of 'round' and then later start nitpicking that definition, like pointing how there are parts on earth bellow sea level which are actually convex. Sure there are no absolutes so even though i'll be right in 99,9% of the time you'll be nit picking that 0,9%. Point being you're the one putting out unconventional claims about centralization, so it's you who has to substantiate it not I, the burden of proof is on you, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Yep I've noticed the same. At least the price is not getting pushed much below it either, my bet is we are going to breakout upwards to the extreme when the sellers realise that they are not getting as many coins back on the sell offs because they are being hodled instead of traded. 12+ month hodl times are at ATH apparently, and with the halvening, there must be less coins floating about. Demand must be near to soaking up supply.

Yeah that does suck. Wonder if they would beat your wallets out of you on the way out, or just keep tabs on your spending for a decade. Hm.

I'm finishing up my taxes as well. Every bitcoin sale tied to a LIFO purchase transaction, every deduction verified. Annoying as hell, probably stupid, but I sleep well as a result.

To renounce my citizenship would require paying taxes on the total value of all of my bitcoin holdings as if I sold them the day I renounced. The thought of the amount of brown skinned people in far off lands who's skin will be burned off using my money does not sit well with me.

My thought is that the US will collapse in the next few years so it is not necessary to renounce my citizenship. US citizenship will cease to exist. Then I can just not sign onto the America 2 (the electric boogaloo) citizenship.

But not to worry. I filed this year so when you leave your house in the morning there will be roads.