Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7915. (Read 26609721 times)

TRUMP SAYS IS THINKING ABOUT IMPOSING A QUARANTINE ON NEW YORK

- It‘s happening

I didn't forget my password my computer forgot my password.

Yeah, I agree. In 2017, I was getting phone calls from friends of friends asking for advice about whether to invest in BTC and a range of alts popular at the time. I was shocked by their lack of knowledge. Yes, just wanting a get-rich-quick scheme, an approach which backfired on all of them. I did months of research back in 2013 - it paid off - and I guess I assumed everyone else would do the same. I was proved wrong. Thankfully to their detriment and not mine.

To each their own, I guess. I place Sapphire, Tanqueray, and even Hendricks as about equivalent quality-wise. I just like the mix of infused botanicals in Sapphire.

Hendricks is good for a change of pace from time to time. Cucumber garnish, please.

Gordon's!? Egad, sir! Begone from this place with that turpentine! Well, I guess it's not _crap_ per se - just bland as all nothingness.

Almost 250 years ago, Alexander Gordon started his distillery in London and set about creating the recipe for a brilliant tasting gin. Gordon's high quality and distinctive juniper flavour has come to define the taste of the classic G&T. Gordon's today is a gin that's enjoyed, not dissected.

Please tell me I am wrong ...
1) Christine Lagarde was chief IMF in 2013 when ECB did Cyprus BAIL-IN (confiscation of depositor savings)
2) She is now chief ECB managing corona crisis
3) IMF's SDR (special Drawing Rights) mentioned as first global currency

People with that get-rich-quick-or-bust type of mindset will simply never make it in this world. They certainly won't make it in ANY type of long term investing, be it stocks, PMs, real estate, etc. They can't be helped, because the fear and FOMO/greed emotions in them are too easily manipulated. Bear markets in anything can last for years.


Most can't be bothered to do the research. Even if they do understand it, they are too overwhelmed by the brainwashing campaign of the MSM that tries to paint Bitcoin as a complete scam. They also don't understand and are put off by the volatility of Bitcoin as compared to large cap stocks, and so they seek false safety when they should be doing the opposite. Risk little, gain little.

But you're making the huge assumption that people who invested in late 2017 are likely to continue investing with a DCA approach. My acquaintances who invested at that time, later sold at a loss and didn't get back in. Like the majority of those investors, they probably don't even know what DCA is.

But my question remains - why so very few people understand that BTC has a finite supply that cannot be altered and should therefore be trusted to hold value more than infinitely supplied fiat.

Let's say for example, there are such persons who invested a decent amount of their initial Lump sum of their initial investment into BTC between early December 2017 and late February 2018, and so they mostly blew their wadd during the highest BTC price points, so their average cost per BTC was around $12k.  Let's say that they had a lump sum of $24k, so they got 2 BTC out of the deal.

So, after March 2018, they had come to feeling a bit disgruntled because they had invested so much into bitcoin, and so at that point, they pondered the situation and rationally concluded that all that they could really reasonably do is to dollar cost average into bitcoin for another year or so, and see where that takes them, so for the next year, until about March 2019 they decide to dollar cost average into bitcoin at about $100 per week which ends up being another $5,200 invested into bitcoin by March 2019.  So let's say that DCA tactic had gotten them another .825 BTC.

Now they have 2.825 BTC and $29,200 invested, which is still about $10,336 per BTC, so they are still a bit aggravated that they are mostly NOT in profits, and they are actually underwater by around 63% because the price at that time is bouncing around in the $3,800 territory.

Remember bitcoin prices had gone from supra $6ks through most of 2018 to testing support in the lower $3ks in November/December 2018, and even largely got stagnated below $4k for most of the first quarter of 2019.  

In the meantime, this hypothetical FOMO buyer from 2017 had been studying into bitcoin and studying into their investment to create some conviction about bitcoin as a dollar hedge, yet they realized that they made some mistakes by throwing so much of their available lump sum investment capital at bitcoin in late 2017 and early 2018, and really they were lucky enough to have a decent enough of a job that they could continue to spare $400 a month for continued DCAing, and they continued to believe in bitcoin and to plug away at their dollar cost averaging approach, even considering that $400 per month was not really breaking them, was allowing them to continue to stack sats and was tending to bring down their average cost per BTC with the passage of additional time buying BTC, so between March 2019 and present, they decided to continue with DCA at $100 per week for another year between March 2019 and present, which ends up resulting in the accumulation of about the same amount of BTC .825 or something like that for that next year between March 2019 and March 2020.

So, if we look at https://dcabtc.com?sd=2018-03-27&sda=2_years&f=weekly&d=2_years&ac=10000&c=true, we will see that investing $100 per week into BTC for the past two years, would have gotten the investor 1.635 BTC at a cost of $10,500, so that investor would be a little below break even for those BTC from the past two years, but if we add those BTC to the 2BTC from the initial lumpsum investment, the investor is still a bit in the red with his/her BTC investment, but still with a decently likely road to profit ahead.

The investor would have a total of 3.635 BTC, and an investment of $34,500 - which would be $9,491 per BTC.  Of course, our current BTC floating price is around $6,250, so such investor would currently still be 35% in the red, even though such investor would have been close to break even during much of February 2020 but the portfolio of this particular FOMO'd in investor still does not seem to be a bad place to be, with a building level of sats, more knowledge about bitcoin, and continuing to DCA with a reasonable amount such as $100 per week is likely to lead to more stacking of BTC, with a reasonable expectation to be in profits in the future, especially if such investor has developed a 5-10 year investment timeline.. and maybe even a longer investment timeline would likely even show more possibilities for a pay off, even though part of the problem was getting in and investing so much at the top of the cycle, but still there is a quite a bit of hope for an investment portfolio like this that continues to just stock away extra side money that they can afford to lose if shit goes to zero.. (which is also seeming increasingly unlikely given the whole state of the bitcoin blockchain and project as a whole, including ongoing building of networking effects, etc).

A person with such an investment profile, might choose to double down at this stage, and hopefully did not do a mindrust when seeing the BTC price drop down to $3,850 a couple of weeks ago.. and did not get out completely in the mid $4ks.

Yeah, sure, BTC prices might return to test $3,850 or even to test $3,124 again, but that potentiality seems like buy opportunity territory to me, because any BTC price below $3k seems almost completely unsustainable under current market conditions, including the fact that bitcoin is not broken in any way, especially with the halvening coming up, and surely bitcoin is likely to continue to serve as a real decent hedge to the "printer goes brrrrr" philosophy that is currently being shown as the solution to a virus and shutting down of industries problem that had already been largely caused by previous "printer goes brrrrrr"... but previously such "printer goes brrrr" philosophy had not been adequately named nor identified.

count me in  

And for how long this will continue? until May? Until June?

Now a bottle of gin for Jimbo, airdropped to the jungle please.

one full month now!
Damn I am losing my mind.