Since we seem to be in a somewhat liquid situation (current status, and questions about if the bottom is in), I remain somewhat unclear regarding what our reasonable jumping off point would be at this point in time for our current projected exponential cycle.
Personally, I had assessed the 2015 starting off point as $250 (rather than $200), in part because we spent a decent amount of time bouncing in around that $250 price before the 2 year rise from about October 2015 to December 2017, which I have ended up assigning a 78x, as what I would consider a fair representation of the bottom to the top. Of course, we did visit sub $200 on at least two significant occasions during that 2015 bottom, which was both January 2015 and late August 2015.
Regarding our current, bouncing off price point, I was kind of debating where reasonably (and fairly) that might be, and before our current price crash to $3,850, I had been thinking around $4,200-ish, even though sub $4,200 might have been more fair, yet it seems that my dilemma about sub $4,200 may have been resolved with our retesting a bottom that reached $3,850.
If that current bottom of $3,850 ends up holding, then $3,850 may be a decently fair number for an overall bottom (or jumping off point), even though we did experience a real low at $3,124, it does not seem that we spent a whole hell of a lot of time in the sub $3,850 territory, and currently, I am not really sure if it would be fair to ascribe anywhere in the $3,850 to $4,200 price area as a fair launching off bottom either...
Probably, ultimately, my current point is that it seems to be a bit too early to decide what would be our fair launching off bottom, until we are sure that the bottom is in as a product of both time and quantity.
Otherwise, I agree with the overall sentiment of ArminVanBitcoin, that our current price seems to be at some point higher than our likely to be starting off point, and we are likely going to have a decently high exponential growth in BTC prices in the coming years, maybe again lasting a couple of years before getting to the top.. not sure if late 2021 has reasonably been put further off, and of course, we have already witnessed that the specific curves of each of these exponential BTC price rises does NOT end up playing out exactly the same, even if they end up having a lot of areas of overlap (which is I suppose what PlanB is describing as co-integration).
Yet ultimately, I am thinking that we are likely to be quite less than 78x this time around, and 30x to 50x seems to be somewhat more reasonable, given BTC's ongoing greater maturity, which for calculation sake would bring our next top anywhere between $120k-ish and $200k-ish. Of course, we have been seeing some numbers that go much further and even close to $500k, which would put the top over 100x, which seems a bit much to me, but we also know that BTC does have past patterns of overshooting even the most reasonably bullish of expectations.
Don't get me wrong. If all of this ends up being wrong, and we just have some minor boost that fucks up the various theories and patterns, then I still am going to be financially and psychologically o.k. with that, too... .. The models and patterns still seem to be quite convincing in terms of likely ongoing good times ahead for sat stackers and hodlers.
