Possibly. The interesting thing about the bubble is the money never really existed anyway. It was just fake virtual "money" backed by nothing and disssolves in a puff of wind.
or it was the fastest money you could turn over in a real black swan emergency to fill your 'likely everyone's" empty emergency fund!
So what MAY happen now is after the fed continues to pour money into this? (the pundits say on Monday's dump of cash will be $2.5 Trillion USD in less than a week)
and the rest of the world doing the same. You may see less than enlightened despot type countries pull the same thing as Cyprus in 2013 and India.
Limit cash withdrawals in developing countries..can't move your money out...those same countries printing money in mass as well, etc, etc.
Inflation comes back, you know the saying if the USA has a recession the rest of the world has a depression..or at least in the developing countries.
So, you can't print this much $$$ needed or not and have or continue the massive tax cuts, etc in play in the USA and of course don't forget MORE qualitative easing
(printing $$) outside of just helping wall street. This will indeed be the year, 2020 when we find out if BTC/Crypto IS just a speculative asset like all the rest and will
take years to recover from or that BTC/Crypto does have the 'chops' to act, even in a limited way, as a store of value as everything hits the skids.
we will see I guess..but why I'm still HODL'ing (then again I'm boring and old in 15-20 years likely will be drag'd off to the nursing home..so what do I care in the long run)
make your own decisions...but with age and the pandemic if BTC goes beanie baby it does not even make the top 3 of crap things I don't want to happen.
see..grumpy old man powers do have their uses
brad
You, brad, seem a bit inclined to do a "mindrust," and probably you should have shaved off a tiny bit of insurance (or "feeling better" money) in the $8,500 to $10,500 price range, instead of waiting for $11,111.11. We can never know and we cannot really time the tops, but it seems that you are just way too damned over-invested for your own psychological state....
Alternatively, if you shave a little off in the lower $5ks, you will be less inclined to panic "shave-off" if we end up revisiting $3,124-ish, which may even be approaching 50% odds, at the moment... Surely, the odds for revisiting $3,124-ish have increased in the past week or so, but I have a hard time, currently, placing those odds at greater than 50%, even though I am having my doubts, too about my own perception of what are reasonable assignment odds, currently.
My personal plan remains to continue to buy on the way down, and I currently have buy orders set down to the lower $3ks - and those buy orders would fill in any kind of flash-crash, quickie correction and currently, I am contemplating whether I need to inject a bit more dollars into "active" status to set such currently existing buy orders to a bit lower amounts.. I am NOT wanting any of those downward price moves to become true.. but now, as I type, we are in a kind of reasonable striking distance of such target testings of buy support, and surely there are k-niving and scheming bearwhales (and likely even fractional reserve cheaters) who would like to attempt to inspire more and more losses in confidence in BTC in order to be able to shake a few more weak hands... so, you, brad, might want to be shaken at a time of your own choosing rather than being cornered into a "mindrust-like bust".
tmYou will thank me later (perhaps?) unless the BTC price goes up from here, then you are going to be pissed off at me, even though I do not deserve blame for your ongoingly seemingly wannabe shakeable psychological state.
Was gonna send you a pm of what I have peeled off BTC/Crypto in 'real $$$' since 2013, but re-read below, did not do so, folks can probably figure out I am in very adequate shape
in the post below. I am not hurting in any frigging way, including this downturn. My lifestyle has been the same for 30 years and will likely be the same till I die. I also with or
without BTC have enough for medical and other life-changing events well beyond my lifestyle above, even without BTC/Crypto...so no issue for me at all. Unless you resemble
my situation, keep that in mind about my actions and posts on here. I have literally NOTHING of any lifestyle or income considerations to lose by HODL'ing BTC/Crypto. Just to be clear!
I am becoming 'uncomfortably', for whatever reason, aware that people may be putting more weight on my posts in WO and Bitcointalk, for crying out loud, anonymous ponderings
on here like I know WTF I'm talking about!
If so be aware, I certainly don't think that is the case and also be aware of my 'little' to lose ponderings vs my BTC/Crypto HODL and long term viewpoint since 2013 which
likely also affects my viewpoint, at any particular time, wtf is going on with BTC/Crypto.
I find it all fascinating, the same way a monkey watches a clock tick. But little idea of what is going on. I certainly hope my 'posts' reflect such, but now a bit unsure.
My viewpoint above was to point at the worse case of 2 extreme views. My 'coping mechanism through life" and not always realizing it may be too negative and less than articulate for some
people, who may be under the confused viewpoint that I actually know wtf I'm talking about! A lot of my postings are indeed to toss something out so I can get another viewpoint.
Also, again, I have no real way to lose on this whole BTC/Crypto thing in my case. I may not make as much in $$$ or BTC/Crypto by HODL'ing than other methods I could employ.
But past lack of success , with those other attempts outside of, my comfort zone, were at best 'erratic' so now I just 'all in HODL'. So with my other attempts outside of just plain HODL'ing
I've mainly done since 2013 have humbled me to the point of a binary choice on my part. BTC/Crypto works or BTC/Crypto doesn't. This is even more true IMHO, with the halving and
current pandemic and drop in stock market and BTC/Crypto prices. Indeed I am even MORE inclined to HODL now than I was a month ago. (But then again, who are we kidding, I'd probably
HODL anyway, but at least I feel better about this)
So again with little to lose, in real-world consequences, but my pride as a worst-case situation, I pick HODL as my speculation of choice.
I can afford to lose it all of my total investments that ALL of the said BTC/Crypto and equipment since 2013 have all been from coin mined along those lines from my original and ONLY investment
of a 2013 KNC Jupiter BTC miner that cost $5,131.80...EVERYTHING came off that units profit and subsequent re-investment of BTC/Crypto, dubious or not!
Again, I worked before retirement in a group home for the developmentally disabled and deaf-blind for 30 years, so I had not any 'extra' cash for what started out as a hobby.
I mean, everything, from a $$$ in to expand and to be used for BTC/Crypto came from, including 3.3 years retirement, double down on equipment along the way to build and double of hoard/hodl
and electric costs/taxes/etc.
ALL of it is from that ONLY investment of $5,131.80.
There was NO other 'slack' in the finances. Thus why if BTC/Ctypto does not work out I"m still fine. Rember this on my posts. I have NO risk, keep that in mind with my ramblings. The
the point very legit that perhaps I should/have or could/have sold some on the dips and such and not be full HODL, and have more coin. Likely correct. But lack IMHO, the skills for such
and dubious consequences of risk/reward loss vs just saying the heck with it and just HODL. (hey, I'm bent, go figure)
Anyway, with my BTC/Crypto, it is money (if you cash out as JayJuanGee above states correctly) I can 'easily' (let me say that again) 'easily' afford to lose. So again, with my rambling posts
always be aware of this direction in my thinking of WTF is going on with BTC/Crypto? VS the implied how does it apply to me..even if the post does say such? ie. I can afford to lose it all!
But, that does not negate the fact that most if not all of my (or others) guesses on where this journey with BTC/Crypto will/would take us, LIKELY, IMHO, always comes down to the same choice.
Do I sell? or Do I HODL? (again this is my case mostly..with others it more like how much to I HODL vs how much do I sell vs need..again in my case does not apply from my view/angle)
Thus likely, my odds would be the same on most choices, of equipment, HODL, cash out for own use, cash out in panic, or whatever by just 'tossing a coin' in the air and risking it all to chance on
such decisions. Or so I think in 20/20 hindsight on 7 years of dubious choices.
Indeed, at least now on some of my more 'dubious' choices in the last 7 years, I could chalk it up to fate, instead of the 'inevitable 20/20' hindsight.
As to the above, I was trying to point out, not me specifically,(probably did this badly) but that BTC is at a crossroads and either IS a speculative asset and will act as such from now on
or it acted in a manner appropriate as the first thing cashed out in an emergency like this pandemic and hopefully will recover and look around at all the FED's QE and $2.5 Trillion in bailout money
and the results of such along with if like 2013, the usual run on banks in developing countries on withdrawals or the bans on banks from the movement of money in general like Cyprus
and indeed BTC/Crypto will be just dandy and fulfill its future as a decentralized store of value. But again, this is a 'speculative' not an 'investment' IMHO as a distinction of someone who
could afford to lose the works. Myself. Thus from a perspective thing, be wary of how/what I post with this in mind!
That does not say that I'm pessimistic in saying that this is a test for BTC/Crypto. I understand the dump in BTC/Crypto as a 'true' emergency black swan event' and myself am OK
with HODL'ing etc due to all I've said above. I await the 2nd part of my premise, the store of value future. Again, my 'speculative' guess/view.
As to the aside, The nursing home stuff above has some validity also in my case. The older you get the more 'risks' you can take as you look to the future.
But it is indeed true, all things are relative, and if I am lucky to live long enough (experience from my field of work) the good old in 15-20 year nursing home situation should be available
and probably as pleasant as possible for an 85-year-old to have. But realities outweigh dreams. So only lose what you can afford to lose. This downturn will not affect the above end game
for me in any significant way or even likely, if I live that long in my case,
I"m not dependent anymore with my BTC/Crypto funds, I simply these last years added to them (doubled actually) from my first miner..so...satisfied to have the same income as I've always had. I
only have to spend $$$ on me. NOW, if, I had spent at a level that included my BTC/Crypto HODL and been too optimistic about such, even spending of such, I'd likely not be able to say this.
But in my finances, BTC/Crypto stands or falls by itself in my whole speculative hodl/sell bet. Again, my angle on all this stuff that may be more unique than most. Keep in mind.
Thus, this being 'speculation' IMHO view, I'm probably going to continue to point out pitfalls/viewpoints that may not be appropriate for the BTC/Crypto 'cheer squad' etc. Speculation or not, HODL
or trade, whatever the situation with BTC/Crypto as far as actual guesses on the future are gonna play out on all this, well 90% of us in this BTC/Crypto Universe have been mostly incorrect since
2013 in my view, but the future is the future..open to all possibilities good/meh/bad.
But the point, by JayJuanGee on how to minimize risk, is quite correct, in the above quote, for others on here..probably even myself if I ever managed to do such in a manner that made me
comfortable from my past actions of such attempts since 2013, I may 'squeak' a lot about coming 'issues' with BTC/Crypto and annoyingly be correct sometimes at little risk to myself on the other
hand if I'm too pessimistic on my 'guessing' of current or future issues with BTC/Crypto that means also at very, 'little result to myself, (but pride) except I'm pleasantly surprised that being wrong
turned out to be just fine. So I'm always gonna be looking at this BTC/Crypto Universe at the big speculation and
Macro-level..with my posts..but indeed MOST people on here should not be ME and SHOULD take JayJuanGee's advice and be more flexible and subtle than my simple BLUNT HODL policy, to
minimize risk.
Indeed most posts I make people should NOT be paying any attention to me, without keeping in mind that I likely don't know stuff when I toss something out there on the W0 or other threads.
I probably should make that clear I guess when I go off a ramble.
But I mean really? This is an anonymous BTC/Crypto related forum. People should look at me and everyone else on here like we don't know sh*t. So /ignore me if I drive you nuts with my
rambling, but also consider that I and everyone else on here may put too much emphasis on what is posted like it is factual. Most of what is on BTC talk IMHO are just that personal
IMHO's as well as others. Pick the 'cluster' you are comfortable with, be like me squeak about stuff as you will and as you 'bang' on the forum around trying to figure stuff out..but by no means
assume I know or anyone else knows any more about anything than a 1st-day newbie 1st post on bitcointalk. I sure don't
I long for my kool-aid newbie youth of 2013 when I had 'big brass ones'
and dropped 25% of my net income, after taxes on that $5,131.80 KNC Jupiter BTC Miner! I am now a banged up by the years and a pale/wimp shadow of my newbie greatness.
Also even if I am in the, IMHO,event right in my possibility of BTC as more (at least after the pandemic) of a store of value asset than not...and this too shall pass. IMHO,
BTC/Crypto will survive just fine afterward, even with slow growth as a more speculative asset. So IMHO, it's all good, even in such a case, will still have IMHO, massive use and adoption.
At the present time, I am MORE interested in HODL'ing (wrong or whatever due to MY circumstances of little to no lifestyle risk even in a pandemic) that I think again, as this
all stabilize at whatever level of BTC/Crypto prices and/or same with stock market...developing countries and authoritarian regimes IMHO will print more $$$ will limit access
to banks, like India and Cyprus and others in 2013 and will make it even harder with inflationary money in their countries for people to thrive. On top of the USA printing cash and QE and debt.
Thus, I still think, that BTC/Crypto will come into play and recover faster than the
stock market for this reason and my view of (maybe valid) the inflationary effects of trying to ease this pandemic and likely recession. Actually fulfilling its 'store of value' and "decentralized crypto
role" So anyway, I see the drop of BTC in price as act one of acting as a catastrophic emergency fund and fully expect act two when things stabilize for BTC/Crypto for it to be more of a store of
value again after some stabilization even if EVERYTHING is stocks/BTC/crypto whatever is 1/2 the value it used to be, after this black swan pandemic one-off!
(again beware of my guesses I have little/nothing to lose)
I'm set and debt-free and diversified no matter how the frigging wind blows. If you are the same my stuff makes sense. If you are not the same or my posts make you too
nervous I recommend you take the very fine advice above by JayJuanGee, above and quoted....but for crying out loud, please don't take anything I say as applied to anyone else,
This is JUST my perspective of posting, with indeed my situation of little risk and biases, at the TIME! (I mean guys/gals its friggging 'BitcoinTallk' ...plays theme music in head
from movie "Chinatown")
I'm stumbling about for clarity in the dark like everyone else. Don't risk what you can't lose. Myself, well maybe just look at my posts and say 'damn he is odd' and move on
or in extreme cases put me on /ignore, hell, I won't mind, I won't even be aware.
Again, I type as fast as I think, thus the length is not a big deal to me. Also, be aware a long post from me has no reality to how important or valid a post may or may not be to
myself. Rember I'm likely just another clueless fellow on Bitcointalk with too much time and too fast of typing skills)
end of rant
(old men our only 'level up skills left are rants!)
Brad
